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Gators No. 14 in ESPN's post-spring SP+ projections

On3 imageby:Keith Niebuhr•05/22/25•

On3Keith

Eugene-Wilson-III-Florida-Gators
Florida Gators wide receiver Eugene Wilson III (3) gestures with Florida Gators offensive lineman Knijeah Harris (77) and Florida Gators offensive lineman Austin Barber (58) after a first down against the Kentucky Wildcats during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. (Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

ESPN’s Bill Connelly has updated his SP+ projections for the 2025 college football season, and the Florida Gators check in at No. 14. Ohio State is on top, followed by Alabama. Penn State, Georgia and Texas round out the top five.

According to Connelly, the SP+ projections use the following factors:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health.

He added, “One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.”

The Gators enter Year 4 of the Billy Napier era with a score of 17.3. The Buckeyes are at 29.5. Florida was one of 12 SEC programs in the updated SP+ top 25; four league teams are in the top 10 — Alabama, Georgia, Texas and LSU (No. 9). Meanwhile, Ole Miss (No. 11), Miami (No. 12) and Tennessee (No. 13) are other programs of note.

The Florida Gators have an challenging schedule in 2025

The SP+ rankings also featured strength of schedule rankings, with Florida at No. 2. The Gators own the highest strength of schedule ranking of any team in the SP+ top 15. Oklahoma has the No. 1 strength of schedule. The Sooners are 16th in the SP+ rankings.

Also of note …. Connelly gave the following odds of an SEC team going 10-2 or better in 2025 based on all the above factors and more: Alabama 65% (SOS rank: 11th), Texas 61% (12th), Georgia 61% (13th), Ole Miss 38% (23rd), Tennessee 33% (24th), LSU 30% (ninth), Florida 18% (second), Auburn 13% (15th), Oklahoma 9% (first), Missouri 5% (25th).

Post-Spring SP+ Rankings

  1. Ohio State – 29.5
  2. Alabama – 27.9
  3. Penn State – 27.7
  4. Georgia – 26.9
  5. Texas – 26.4
  6. Notre Dame – 24.9
  7. Oregon – 24/7
  8. Clemson – 23.3
  9. LSU – 22.1
  10. Michigan – 21.5
  11. Ole Miss – 19.8
  12. Miami – 18.8
  13. Tennessee – 18.4
  14. Florida Gators – 17.3
  15. Texas A&M – 17.2
  16. Oklahoma – 16.5
  17. South Carolina – 16.1
  18. Kansas State – 15.6
  19. Illinois – 14.3
  20. SMU – 13.1
  21. Missouri – 12.5
  22. Arizona State – 12.2
  23. Indiana – 12.2
  24. Louisville – 12.1
  25. Auburn – 11.8

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