Gators Online Gameday Predictions: Florida Gators vs Florida State

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — We’ve come to the end of the season. The Florida Gators will host the No. 5 Florida State Seminoles on Saturday night at 7:00 p.m. in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida is looking for bowl eligibility while the Noles hope to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

Gators Online staff writers Zach Abolverdi, Nick de la Torre, Corey Bender, and Keith Niebuhr, will pick every game this season and we will keep track of our staff picks and predictions as the year goes on.

Zach Abolverdi

The No. 5 Seminoles have the edge over Florida in every major statistical category this season, but their offensive production should have a drop-off on Saturday. FSU will be without starting quarterback Jordan Travis (leg injury) and junior Tate Rodemaker is making his second career start in a night game at The Swamp. 

Whatever advantage the Gators can gain from FSU’s QB change could be offset by their own. Redshirt freshman Max Brown will start for the first time in his career in place of Graham Mertz (collarbone fracture). Brown played well at No. 10 Mizzou and brings a new element to Florida’s offense with his dual-threat ability. 

I think Brown will make some plays in this game, but I’m not sure if he’ll perform better than Rodemaker. He’s been in Mike Norvell‘s program for all four years and is more developed and prepared for this moment than Brown. Even if the QB situation is a wash, the Seminoles are still more talented on both sides of the ball. 

Prediction: Florida State, 27-20

Corey Bender

With both starting quarterbacks out, this game could feature plenty of twists and turns.

Thankfully for the Gators, however, this game will be played inside the Swamp. They are likely to have significant issues defending FSU’s pass game, but I believe Max Brown and company will be able to produce on offense.

With a victory, Florida would become bowl-eligible. It’s obviously not the season the Gators envisioned, but this is a tight-knit group playing for pride. It’s also the final game of the season, at home under the light of the Swamp, and against a rival. I don’t think Billy Napier will have issues getting his team ready for this one.

The Gators have a two-headed monster at running back with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, and I expected them to lean on those two heavily. The Seminoles are giving up 140 yards rushing per game too.

It might not be the prettiest game at times, but I have UF pulling it out.

Prediction: Florida 24-21

Keith Niebuhr

These are the things working in the Gators’ favor: Florida is playing at home. The Gators are battle-tested and coming off one of their better games. FSU hasn’t been a world-beater on the road. The ‘Noles will be without their star quarterback. And … all the pressure is on FSU.

But here’s what the Gators are up against. This ‘Noles team has talented playmakers, finds different ways to win, and has a knack for making big plays when it counts. Florida, on the other hand, keeps finding different ways to lose.

If Max Brown can get Florida some yards through the air to complement the ground game, the Gators have a very realistic chance. But they will have to eliminate the many miscues that have plagued them during this frustrating 5-6 season. It can be done. But it’s hard to bet on them.

Prediction: Florida State 23-20

Nick de la Torre

The Florida Gators’ defense has taken a beating down the stretch. Austin Armstrong‘s group has given up 167 points (41.75 per game) during Florida’s four-game losing streak. Three of those four games have come on the road. The Gators’ defense has been much better at home than away from the friendly confines of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Stats	Home	Road
Scoring	16.6 ppg	37.3
Total	307 ypg	471.3 ypg
Rushing	102.8 ypg	210.50 ypg
Passing	204.2 ypg	260.8

The one outlier would be an Arkansas team that was debuting a new offensive coordinator. Defensive coordinators try to find patterns and tendencies and Florida couldn’t do that against Arkansas and the Razorbacks hit Florida for 39 points.

This week the Gators and Noles will both have new quarterbacks but I think Florida’s defense will be better prepared to face Tate Rodemaker than they would have been against Jordan Travis. Rodemaker isn’t a statue but he’s nowhere near the athlete or the running threat that Travis would have been. On the other hand, Florida’s offense should be tougher for FSU to prepare for with Max Brown and his running ability. Brown isn’t the passer that Mertz is but his running ability should force FSU to play 11-on-11 defensively because they have to account for Brown’s athleticism. The Noles also play a lot of man defense, which could lead to a big day on the ground for Brown and the the Gators’ running backs.

Give me the Gators and The Swamp.

Prediction: Florida 32-27

Tracking the picks

Game	Abolverdi	Bender	Niebuhr	de la Torre
Season Record:	9-2	7-4	8-3	9-2
Utah	Utah ✅	Utah ✅	Utah ✅	Florida ❌
McNeese	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅
Tennessee	Florida ✅	Tennessee ❌	Florida ✅	Florida ✅
Charlotte	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅
Kentucky	Florida ❌	Florida ❌	Florida ❌	Kentucky ✅
Vanderbilt	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅
South Carolina	Florida ✅	South Carolina ❌	Florida ✅	Florida ✅
Georgia	Georgia ✅	Georgia ✅	Georgia ✅	Georgia ✅
Arkansas	Florida ❌	Florida ❌	Florida ❌	Florida ❌
LSU	LSU ✅	LSU ✅	LSU ✅	LSU ✅
Missouri	Missouri ✅	Missouri ✅	Florida ❌	Missouri ✅
Florida State	FSU	Florida	FSU	Florida