Gators Online Gameday predictions: Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Vols

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The Florida Gators are a rare home underdog to their rival this weekend. The Gators welcome in No. 11 Tennessee, who haven’t won at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since 2003. Florida fans are ready, selling out The Swamp for the fifth time during the Billy Napier era. Are the Gators ready for the Volunteers?

Gators Online staff writers Zach Abolverdi, Nick de la Torre, Corey Bender, and Keith Niebuhr, will pick every game this season and we will keep track of our staff picks and predictions as the year goes on.

SIGN UP FOR THE FLORIDA GATORS NEWSLETTER AND GET BREAKING NEWS SENT TO YOU FOR FREE

Zach Abolverdi

This game comes down to some key matchups: Graham Mertz vs. Joe Milton, the rushing battle and which defense plays the best. Two of those categories are a toss-up, but the third is advantage for one team.

And to me, that’s Mertz over Milton. I’m not a believer in the former Michigan quarterback and he hasn’t impressed me so far this season. Mertz, however, is playing well through the first two games and has been more accurate than Milton.

Tennessee has one of the nation’s best rushing offenses, but Florida boasts a talented backfield as well. I think the Gators will run the ball better than they did against Utah, while Tennessee won’t have the same success on the ground it did vs. Virgina and Austin Peay.

And finally, the defense. Florida lost this game last year in part because of blown coverages. This is going to be a coming-out party for new defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong, who will be blitzing Milton and trying to keep him out of rhythm.

Tennesse is improved on defense as well and will likely get some sacks on Mertz. But I expect UF to protect Mertz enough for him to move the ball and control the clock with the run game. I’m also anticipating Florida’s first turnover on defense.

Prediction: Florida, 28-27

Corey Bender

Although the Swamp will be rocking and it’s the SEC opener, it’s still difficult for me to forecast a victory for the Gators. I do, however, believe it’s going to be a close game that has fans on the edge of their seats throughout the fourth quarter.

For me though, Tennessee has less questions surrounding the team. They had an up-and-down performance against Austin-Peay in week two but have plenty of skill players to give UF’s defense problems. If Florida’s defensive line can wreak havoc and make it difficult for Joe Milton, this game could get very interesting though. There is no doubting his arm talent, but he can also be erratic.

Also, if the Gators can generate momentum on the ground early on, that will allow Graham Mertz to throw with confidence. His ability to extend the field could end up being the difference maker. The Gators must gain some respect on the ground early though.

This matchup is nearly too close to call; it should be a nailbiter though.

Prediction: Tennessee, 31-27

Keith Niebuhr

On paper, Tennessee should win. They have a better overall roster and more difference-makers, and there are many guys on that team that have played in — and won — big games.

Meanwhile, I still have several concerns with Florida. How good is the roster? Are there any stars? What is the identity of the team? Can the offensive line hold up against a strong defensive front? All of this would seem to point to a Tennessee win. However, I still have questions about Joe Milton’s accuracy.

If he completes passes, I don’t like Florida’s chances. If he doesn’t and the Vols become one-dimensional then the game tightens. Under that scenario, the Swamp could be worth possibly seven to 10 points. In picking Florida to lose at Utah, I thought the Gators might get rattled in that environment. Now, I’m guessing something similar will happen to the Vols.

Prediction: Florida, 23-22

Nick de la Torre

Part of the beauty of the Florida-Tennessee game being played so early is that there are so many unknowns about both teams. That makes this a tricky game to predict. Florida will want to run the ball but the Vols have been stingy there. UF struggled to run against Utah in the season opener. The Gators also had trouble protecting Graham Mertz in that game, allowing five sacks. The Vols lead the SEC with 11 sacks and tackles for a loss (25). How will Florida combat that? (I wrote about it here).

On the other side of the ball, Josh Heupel’s offense has been one of the best in the country since he arrived in Knoxville. It’s operated at a dizzying pace and one that Hendon Hooker mastered. This season, Joe Milton hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t looked to have that same mastery that Hooker displayed. Now, Tennessee is leaning more on its rushing attack, which is a good one.

I’m taking Florida in this game because I think the Gators will be able to do just enough to win in front of a sold-out crowd. My score total is low, lower than what Tennessee is accustomed to scoring under Heupel because that’s the only way I can see Florida pulling off the upset. The Gators won’t out-Tennessee, Tennessee. They need to slow the pace down on offense and control the ball and the clock. They’ll need to play stout defense and force a turnover or two — something they have yet to do this season.

Prediction: Florida, 28-24

Tracking the picks

Game	Abolverdi	Bender	Niebuhr	de la Torre
Season Record:	2-0	2-0	2-0	1-1
Utah	Utah ✅	Utah ✅	Utah ✅	Florida ❌
McNeese	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅	Florida ✅
Tennessee	Florida	Tennessee	Florida	Florida
Charlotte				
Kentucky				
Vanderbilt				
South Carolina				
Georgia				
Arkansas				
LSU				
Missouri				
Florida State