Gators Online staff predicts the W-L record for Florida in 2023

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — It’s talking season for college football, with magazines, network analysts and beat writers from the country beginning to prognosticate how 2023 will play out. Athlon Sports predicts Florida to finish 5-7 (3-5 SEC) and miss a bowl. UF has the second-lowest win total line in the SEC from DraftKings, which projected the Gators to win just 5.5 games.

Gators Online staff writers Zach Abolverdi, Nick de la Torre and Corey Bender predicted each game last year (see results below). The staff’s newest addition, Keith Niebuhr, will join us this season.

Here are our predictions for Florida’s W-L record in 2023, with the percentage chances for a UF win — according to ESPN Analytics matchup predictor — in parentheses.

Aug. 31, at Utah (29.7% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Even with Utah quarterback Cameron Rising coming off an ACL injury in the Rose Bowl, there’s too much newness with the Gators to pull off another season-opening upset over the Utes. (Utah)

Nick de la Torre: A lot of this depends on Rising. Even if he’s healthy, what will he look like in his first game back from surgery? Backup Brandon Rose looked good in the spring. This game could be a toss-up. (Utah)

Corey Bender: This game should be fairly close throughout, but this is a difficult task in week one for a Gators squad that is replacing a number of key starters. (Utah)

Keith Niebuhr: The Florida defense will have to keep the Gators in the game, and I think they will. But it still looks like a loss at this time. (Utah)

Sept. 9, McNeese State (99% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: The Gators get a cupcake game for their home opener after having to wait five weeks for one in 2022. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: This should be a drama-free game for the Gators, who will have a few extra days off after opening the season on a Thursday. (Florida)

Corey Bender: Anything can happen in college football, especially early in season, but the Gators should roll over McNeese State. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: It should be a good chance for the Florida offense to make some strides early in the season. (Florida)

Sept. 16, Tennessee (51.7% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Austin Armstrong’s defense causes fits for Joe Milton III in a must-win game for the Gators, who went winless against their rivals last season. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: The last time the Vols won in The Swamp, most of the players on the field hadn’t been born yet. I’m not buying the Joe Milton hype right now. (Florida)

Corey Bender: This week-three matchup is the one that could generate significant momentum going forward or really place Gator Nation in the dumps emotionally. (Tennessee)

Keith Niebuhr: If the Florida defense can be as good as the Gators privately think it might be, they should have a chance. Playing at home obviously won’t hurt. (Tennessee)

RELATED: Must-win games for Florida Gators in 2023: Tennessee

Sept. 23, Charlotte (96.3% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Charlotte AD Mike Hill will wish he was still on the UF sidelines. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: The second cupcake game of the season. It gets real after this. (Florida)

Corey Bender: Fortunately for the Gators, they get a rebound game against Charlotte if the Volunteers come out victorious. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: As long as Florida’s head is in the right place, this should be a cakewalk. (Florida)

Sept. 30, at Kentucky (48.4% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: The hope for the Gators is that Kingsley Eguakun and the offensive line won’t commit eight false starts again in Lexington, and Graham Mertz will take care of the ball better than Anthony Richardson did last year. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: I think Mark Stoops is the difference here. Stoops gave Dan Mullen — a great play caller and game planner — fits with his defensive schemes and calls. He did that to Billy Napier again in The Swamp last year. (Kentucky)

Corey Bender: It would not surprise if the Gators’ road game against Kentucky kicks off during the evening; however, afternoon or night, coming out on top in Lexington will be very difficult. (Kentucky) 

Keith Niebuhr: At this point in the season, younger players on the roster should be stepping up and making an impact. (Florida)

RELATED: Must-win games for Florida Gators in 2023: Kentucky

Oct. 7, Vanderbilt (90.4% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: As long as the Gators don’t muff a punt into their own end zone for a Vanderbilt touchdown, this game should never be in doubt. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: This won’t be a repeat of 2022. The Gators should never lose to Vanderbilt on the football field, and they’ll correct that in 2023. (Florida)

Corey Bender: While the game may be closer compared to years in the past, I don’t see Florida coming up short against Vanderbilt on Homecoming. You cannot lose this game if you are the Gators. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: I don’t believe in revenge games, only in being better and outexecuting people. That’s why I like Florida at home. (Florida)

RELATED: Must-win games for Florida Gators in 2023: Vanderbilt

Oct. 14, at South Carolina (58.9% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: This was the matchup where the Gators put it all together in 2022, pitching a defensive shutout in a 38-6 win. I don’t think they take a step back against South Carolina this year. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: The Gamecocks bring back Spencer Rattler, which I think has them getting more hype than they deserve this offseason. UF beat South Carolina soundly last season. (Florida)

Corey Bender: If the Gators want to record a statement road victory against South Carolina, they will need to take care of the football. That starts at the quarterback position with Graham Mertz. (South Carolina)

Keith Niebuhr: Because Florida still doesn’t have a great roster, this is the type of game it’s probably set up to lose. (South Carolina)

RELATED: Must-win games for Florida Gators in 2023: South Carolina

Oct. 28, Georgia (13.8% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: I can picture a scenario in almost every Gators game where they find a way to win. I just don’t see it with this one. (Georgia)

Nick de la Torre: Georgia’s defense is going to be scary. Florida doesn’t have the roster to compete with the Bulldogs. (Georgia)

Corey Bender: For me, this one is easy to explain to the fan base. Georgia is a much better team and coming off back-to-back national championships. (Georgia)

Keith Niebuhr: The challenge might be keeping this within a reasonable margin. (Georgia)

RELATED: Top 5 toughest defenses Florida Gators will face in 2023 season

Nov. 4, Arkansas (66.2% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: If you’re a running back, this is a must-see game in a battle between two of the SEC’s best backfields. The Swamp will be packed with recruits wanting to see the black uniforms, and the Gators cannot bring out them and lose. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: I’m not entirely buying into new offense new offensive coordinator Dan Enos but this game comes at an awful time. This will be a brutally physical three-game stretch for the Gators. (Arkansas)

Corey Bender: Arkansas is on the rise under Sam Pittman and continues to upgrade its roster. This one could go either way and should be close, but playing at the Swamp could be the difference maker. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: This is an important game to gauge the overall direction of the program under Billy Napier and his coaching staff. (Florida)

RELATED: Must-win games for Florida Gators in 2023: Arkansas

Nov. 11, at LSU (18.5% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: The Gators kept pace in this rivalry game last season with Richardson, but Jayden Daniels and the Tigers will be too much to handle in Death Valley. (LSU)

Nick de la Torre: The Gators are 3-7 in their last 10 trips to Baton Rouge. It’s a tough road game and LSU will be playing for more at this point of the season. (LSU)

Corey Bender: I see Florida giving LSU a better game than many think, especially if the running game can get started. Turnovers could turn the game upside down, though. You cannot let that happen in Baton Rouge. (LSU)

Keith Niebuhr: Doesn’t look like a good matchup no matter how you look at this. However, the visiting team does have a lot of success in this rivalry. (LSU)

Nov. 18, at Missouri (58.1% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: After losing in Baton Rouge to the Bayou Bengals, the Gators earn some strips on the road against the Tigers of the East with their eighth win of the season. (Florida)

Nick de la Torre: I will say this … I have seen Florida lose this game. Late in the season, likely a noon (11 am local) kickoff. It will be early, cold, and mostly empty in the other Columbia. Sandwiched between LSU and FSU, this has trap written all over it. (Florida)

Corey Bender: If the Gators come across some speed bumps as expected, I can see Missouri somewhat overlooking UF here. (Florida)

Keith Niebuhr: So much may depend on the weather, but Florida should have the stronger roster. The question is, where is each team’s psyche at that point in the season? (Florida)

Nov. 25, FSU (50.3% chance)

Zach Abolverdi: Florida State comes into The Swamp as a College Football Playoff contender. I don’t expect the shootout we saw last season, but the Seminoles will be too good for Florida to play spoiler.(FSU)

Nick de la Torre: This should be a toss-up game. I haven’t bought into the Florida State hype this offseason. Jordan Travis is good, and he gave Florida fits last year. The Gators will need to figure out how to tackle him better at home. (Florida)

Corey Bender: This year’s home matchup against FSU is a tossup for me due to the emotion of the game and Florida being at home. The Seminoles are the more talented program right now though. (FSU)

Keith Niebuhr: A very average Florida team went toe to toe with Florida State’s best team in recent memory on the road last year. If Florida has made progress during the season, it will have a real chance in this game. (FSU)

RELATED: Top 5 toughest offenses Florida Gators will face in 2023 season

W-L records from Gators Online staff

Zach Abolverdi: 8-4

Nick de la Torre: 7-5

Corey Bender: 5-7

Keith Niebuhr: 6-6

Tracking our 2022 picks

Opponent	Abolverdi	Bender	de la Torre
Utah	Utah ❌	UF ✅	Utah ❌
Kentucky	UF ❌	UF ❌	UF ❌
USF	UF ✅	UF ✅	UF ✅
Tennessee	UT ✅	UT ✅	UF ❌
EWU	UF ✅	UF ✅	UF ✅
Mizzou	UF ✅	UF ✅	UF ✅
LSU	UF ❌	UF ❌	UF ❌
UGA	UGA ✅	UGA ✅	UGA ✅
Texas A&M	UF ✅	A&M ❌	A&M ❌
South Carolina	UF ✅	UF ✅	UF ✅
Vanderbilt	UF ❌	UF ❌	UF ❌
Florida State	FSU ✅	FSU ✅	A&M ❌
Oregon State	OSU ✅	OSU ✅	OSU ✅
Total Record	9-4	9-4	6-7