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Gators open as big favorites vs. Mississippi State

On3 imageby: Keith Niebuhr10/13/25On3Keith
Jadan-Baugh-Florida-Gators
Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) and Florida Gators wide receiver J. Michael Sturdivant (9) gesture after a run against the Long Island Sharks during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. (Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images)

The Florida Gators, underdogs in their past four games, are big favorites to win this Saturday’s homecoming game vs. Mississippi State at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. BetMGM, the official betting partner of On3, has made Florida an 8.5-point favorite vs. the Bulldogs. The over/under is 51.5 points.

Florida, having dropped four of five, is 2-4 overall and 1-2 in the SEC. Mississippi State is 4-2 and 0-2. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. Saturday; SEC Network is airing the game.

The Gators were 7.5-point underdogs last week; they lost to then-No. 5 Texas A&M 34-17. UF is 2-4 against the spread this year, covering against only Long Island and Texas.

UF leads the all-time series with Mississippi State 35-19-2.

“I know college football has changed quite a bit, but I do think that we got a lot of guys that came here, it means something for them to pursue the degree here, to be a graduate one day, to come back here and call this place home,” Gators coach Billy Napier said Monday. “And I think you represent the place and the people with how you compete on Saturday. And this next Saturday is our next opportunity, right? So, you gotta be tough-minded in this game. It’s a new week, it’s a new day, it’s a new week, and we gotta turn around and prepare a certain way, get ready to represent this place the right way on Saturday.”

Notable Florida Gators stats

*In its five games against FBS teams this season, Florida is 18 of 66 on third down, which averages out to 27.3 percent. Take away the 7-of-14 effort against Texas and the percentage falls to 21.1 percent.

The Gators were 1 of 10 on third down vs. the Aggies. Texas A&M was 9 of 17. If you’re looking for the difference in the game, that was it.

*The Florida Gators defense, despite a slow start, actually held the Aggies to only six “big” offensive plays, which are defined as pass plays of 15-plus yards and run plays of 10-plus yards. Four of Texas A&M’s big plays came in the first quarter, when the Aggies had 196 total yards. They gained 221 over the final three periods for a 417-yard total. 

*In the Florida Gators’s four losses, they have a combined two sacks. They didn’t record one vs. the Aggies. A year ago, they had 39 of them.

*The Gators last topped the 30-point mark against an SEC opponent Oct. 19, 2024 when they beat a terrible Kentucky team 48-20. In the seven games since, UF has averaged 20.57 points a game.

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