The road ahead for Florida football: 1 left -- and it's a big one

Eleven down. One to go.

For the Florida Gators, Saturday’s game against Florida State at The Swamp is hugely significant despite Florida’s lackluster 5-6 record. A win would almost certainly derail FSUs hopes of reaching the playoff and make the Gators bowl elgibile.

Also, it would make for a more enjoyable offseason in Gainesville and get the critics off coach Billy Napier’s back for a bit.

Of course, this game now has added intrigue because the starting quarterbacks for both teams were injured last week.

Let’s take a quick look at this matchup …

Can the Florida Gators keep FSU out of the playoff?

SATURDAY FLORIDA STATE
RECORD: 11-0, 8-0 in the ACC
WHAT GIVES FLORIDA A CHANCE: 1. The injury to star FSU quarterback Jordan Travis, who was having a special season, is every bit as significant as you’d think. He was completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,755 yards, 20 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. Additionally, Travis has rushed for 176 yards and seven touchdowns — and his elusiveness in the pocket made him extremely difficult to contain.

Backup Tate Rodemaker, who should start in his place, has thrown for 376 yards and five touchdowns. Against Power 5 teams, though, he has 86 yards passing with one touchdown.

2. FSU dipped a little on offense in its ninth and 10th games and then started slowly against North Alabama, a 3-win FCS team. And that was with Travis in the lineup. Now, FSU will hope to regain its offensive mojo in its biggest game to date this season — on the road.

On paper anyway, this should help a Gators defense that hasn’t been great.

3. Florida usually is a different team at home and FSU has been a different team this season on the road. The ‘Noles barely beat Boston College and Clemson away from home — and were in a battle with two-win Pitt for three quarters (although the ‘Noles were missing some key players).

4. For FSU, a loss would knock it out of a potential playoff spot. All the pressure will be on the ‘Noles. For Florida, the chance to ruin an arch-rival’s season is a great motivator.

5. That Florida has faced the strong defensive lines of Georgia and Missouri in recent weeks should help prepare the Gators for FSU. While the ‘Noles’ defensive line is good — few would call it great. FSU has allowed 139.6 rushing yards per game. Could that be an opening for a Gators team with two strong backs and a quarterback that can run?

THE BAD NEWS FOR UF: 1. The injury to Mertz leaves Florida with an unproven signal caller in Max Brown entering this ultra-important rivalry game.

Will he have time to throw? That’s a big question. Can he complete passes? He’ll need to.

If FSU can make Florida one-dimensional, that will be an issue.

2. FSU is 11-0 for a reason.

No, the ‘Noles schedule hasn’t been great, but the ‘Noles did run away from a solid LSU team in Week 1 in Orlando. And that same LSU team beat Florida by 17, albeit at home.

The bottom line, when challenged the ‘Noles have made plays. They had a crucial third-down sack at Boston College in a 31-29 win, they rallied to win at Clemson in overtime, they stuffed a key Duke drive in the second half then took control and they forced an interception late to hold off Miami.

The team has made many clutch plays this season.

3. Rodemaker isn’t Travis, but he can still beat you. In fact, he came off the bench to lead FSU to a comeback win at Louisville just last season. This is his fourth year in Tallahassee. He’s going to know the offense and his teammates are going to rally around him.

Wrote Warchant.com, “Rodemaker has the strongest arm on the team. He also is a very good athlete. And the fact that he has been here so long instills confidence in his teammates — even as they cope with losing their leader in Travis.”

4. The FSU defense allows only 16.91 points a game. That type of production will give you a chance to win most Saturdays.

5. FSU has some legit receivers and Florida’s pass defense has been suspect (to say the least). The Gators are 85th nationally in passing yards allowed. FSU has dangerous receivers in 6-foot-4 Keon Coleman, 6-7 Johnny Wilson and 6-3 tight end Jaheim Bell. The Gators secondary hasn’t really proven it can stop anyone.

ESPN ANALYTICS MATCHUP PREDICTOR: FSU is favored with an 81.4% chance to win. That is down from 83.8% last week.