Two differing opinions for the Florida Gators 2023 football season
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The 2023 season is more than 100 days away but the fine folks in Las Vegas are already setting betting lines. It’s safe to say there isn’t a lot of confidence in the Florida Gators from the people setting the lines.
DraftKings has released SEC win total odds for the 2023 season. Florida has the second-lowest win total line in the entire SEC, edging out Vanderbilt who perenially holds the lowest spot.
Win total odds for SEC teams in 2023
Georgia Bulldogs — 11.5
Alabama Crimson Tide — 10.5
Tennessee Volunteers — 9.5
LSU Tigers — 9.5
Ole Miss Rebels — 7.5
Arkansas Razorbacks — 7.5
Texas A&M Aggies — 7.5
South Carolina Gamecocks — 6.5
Kentucky Wildcats — 6.5
Missouri Tigers — 6.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs — 6.5
Auburn Tigers — 6.5
Florida Gators — 5.5
Vanderbilt Commodores — 3.5
Too high or too low for the Florida Gators?
Right now, Las Vegas has Florida looking on the outside in on bowl season with a total like that. Florida’s schedule is daunting. A trip out west to play the defending Pac-12 Champion Utah Utes kicks things off. Florida’s early schedule isn’t daunting after that. The Tennessee game, which is at home, is sandwiched in between cupcakes McNeese and Charolette.
It’s after that first month when the schedule will take a turn. Florida has a road trip to Kentucky. For three decades you could safely tattoo a win on your skin when the schedule was released and be safe. No longer. The Wildcats have won two in a row over the Gators and three of the last five. Florida will host Vanderbilt before a trip to Columbia to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. The last time Florida played at Williams Brice Stadium they lost 40-17. Billy Napier and the Gators exacted revenge with a 38-6 win in 2022 but South Carolina returns Spencer Rattler and will have a good team this season.
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Then a date with the two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs.
Florida will host Sam Pittman, KJ Jefferson, and the Arkansas Razorbacks the following week. The following weeks will rack up air miles with late-season trips to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Columbia, Missouri. Florida and Missouri have gone back and forth since the Tigers’ entered the SEC. A cold, late November game between two teams that won’t be in contention for the SEC title smells like a nooner (11 am local kickoff) — another factor the Gators have struggled with in the past.
ESPN season predictor
If you’re a betting kind of person, ESPN would tell you to take the over on the 5.5-win total laid out by DraftKings. And it’s not close.
Per ESPN Analytics, the Gators are favored to win in eight games. Two of those games Tennessee and Florida State are essentially toss-ups, with Florida’s winning percentage chance just over 50. Winning eight games in Napier’s second season should be considered a success given the season the team is coming off of and where the roster is compared to the rest of the league.
| Opponent | % chance Florida will win (Per ESPN) |
|---|---|
| @ Utah | 29.7 |
| McNeese | 99%. |
| Tennessee | 51.7% |
| Charlotte | 96.3% |
| @ Kentucky | 48.4% |
| Vanderbilt | 90.4% |
| @ South Carolina | 58.9% |
| Georgia | 13.8% |
| Arkansas | 66.2% |
| @ LSU | 18.5% |
| @ Missouri | 58.1% |
| Florida State | 50.3% |
