Corey Clark: So how seriously should we take these NFL mock drafts in December?

As you might be aware, Jared Verse has not yet announced whether he’ll be returning to the Florida State football team in 2023.

As you might also be aware, Verse’s name is — and has been — appearing in NFL mock drafts all over the Internet in recent weeks and months.

It makes sense. He is a physical specimen. He’s strong. Fast. Played much of this year nowhere close to 100 percent healthy. And he still was one of the best players in the ACC, which is why he got more first-place all-conference votes than any other defender.

But is he a surefire NFL first-rounder?

And, to that point, if he thinks he is, then what is taking him so long to announce his intentions?

Well, here’s one thing I’ve learned after following these mock drafts for the last, I don’t know, 20 years of my life. They don’t really mean a whole bunch in December.

They mean more than they did back in August, of course. There has been a full season of film and production. But until the NFL Combine happens, until the measurements and the interviews and the performances live in front of scouts and GMs, the mock drafts are something you can actually mock if you like.

That’s not the point of this column, of course. I do think Mel Kiper. Todd McShay and company do the Lord’s work in trying to give all you draft nerds content for 52 weeks a year. But they have a pretty impossible job right now. Because, yes, we all know that Bryce Young will be a high draft pick. So will Will Anderson and Jalen Carter. The top of the first round is always pretty easy to predict after a full college football season.

But Jared Verse isn’t projected to go in the top of the first round. He’s a fringe first-rounder, according to Kiper and McShay.

Kiper released his Top 25 draft prospects earlier this week. Verse wasn’t on it. But he was ranked as the fourth-best defensive end (more on that in a moment).

McShay released his first full mock first round for 2023 earlier this week as well. Verse was on it, but barely, coming in at No. 30 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Here’s why this matters. Because in the middle of December, it’s exceptionally hard to have any real gauge of what the truth is.

Here’s an example: Last year at this time, Kiper had Travon Walker as the No. 5 defensive end prospect in the country. McShay had him going No. 27 overall.

Instead, the UGA product went No. 1.

Clearly, the NFL scouting departments didn’t agree with what Kiper and McShay thought in December of 2021.

On the flip side, San Diego State’s Cameron Thomas was rated by Kiper as the No. 4 defensive end draft prospect in the country last year at this time. And McShay had him going No. 32 overall.

Instead, Thomas was drafted in the third round, No. 87 overall.

So, again, the scouting departments thought otherwise.

And I want to reiterate, I’m not here dunking on Kiper and McShay. They try their best. And they get plenty of things right in these mock drafts if you go back and do the research. Especially in the first half of the first rounds.

It’s that second half, though, the one where Verse apparently resides right now, where things can get turbulent.

I write all this having no idea what Verse is going to do. Or Jammie Robinson and Fabien Lovett for that matter. None of the three Florida State defensive stars have announced their intentions yet. And we’re three weeks removed from the Florida game, so who knows?

But when it comes to Verse, I just wanted to point out that just because he’s predicted to be a first-round pick, here in the middle of December, does not mean he’ll be one in late April. I’m sure he knows that.

Yes, he could be a Travon Walker and shoot to the top of the mocks over the next few months. Or he could be a Cameron Thomas and drop deep into the third round. Nothing is guaranteed or set in stone in December. These mock drafts didn’t come down from Mount Sinai. They’re educated guesses.

And I’m sure that’s what Verse and his family are in the process of doing: Getting educated.

If Cam Thomas had been drafted where he was predicted to be last December, he would have signed a guaranteed contract of $11.5 million. Instead, because he was drafted 50 picks later, he got a guaranteed total of $1.6 million.

Not too shabby, clearly, for us normal humans. But literally $10 million less than the guy who was picked No 32.

Verse might end up going pro. He might be hearing from enough people that he’s got a chance to be a first-rounder and could climb up those charts with impressive workouts after the new year.

Or he might end up coming back for another year at FSU, betting on himself, and trying to work himself into a top-10 pick?

Who knows? I do know the financial difference between where McShay has him slated to be drafted (No. 30 overall) and where McShay has his No. 1 defensive end (Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson at No. 8) being drafted is more than a $10 million gap in guaranteed money.

That’s a pretty big deal.

Big enough to decide to run it back? Maybe with some serious NIL money in his pocket?

No idea. I just know that all of us — you, me, Todd, Mel and even the Verse family — have absolutely no idea where he’ll be drafted in the middle of December.

Contact senior writer Corey Clark at [email protected] and follow @corey_clark on Twitter.

Talk about this story with other die-hard FSU football fans on the Tribal Council.