Ranking Florida State Football's final five games from least difficult to hardest

After a 4-3 start to the season, the 2022 Florida State football team likely will be judged based on how it performs over the final five weeks.

If the Seminoles can win four or all five of those games, the season will be seen as a resounding success. That would give Florida State eight or nine regular-season victories after going 5-7 in 2021 and 3-6 the year before that.

Anything less than four wins, however, will likely leave fans wanting more after the season started with such promise at 4-0. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at each of those final five games and the Seminoles’ chances for victories against each opponent.

According to ESPN’s FPI (Football Performance Index) Matchup Indicator, Florida State will be the odds-on favorite to win four of the five games.

The lone exception is Syracuse, which suffered its first loss of the season on Saturday at Clemson, 27-21. The Orange have a 61.9 chance of beating Florida State, according to the FPI.

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Here’s a look at the Seminoles’ remaining games in reverse order of difficulty (according to ESPN’s FPI):

No. 5 — Georgia Tech (Oct. 29) — The Seminoles have a 90.1 percent chance of winning

No. 4 — Louisiana (Nov. 19) — The Seminoles have an 85.7 percent chance of winning

No. 3 — Florida (Nov. 25) — The Seminoles have a 67.4 percent chance of winning

No. 2 — Miami (Nov. 5) — The Seminoles have a 62.5 percent chance of winning

No. 1 — Syracuse (Nov. 12) — The Seminoles have just a 38.1 percent chance of winning

And here is a breakdown of each of those five opponents (in order of appearance on schedule):

Georgia Tech

Record: 3-4, 2-2 in the ACC

Notable victories: 26-21 at Pitt; 23-20 (OT) vs. Duke

Notable losses: 27-10 at UCF; 16-9 vs. Virginia

Common opponents: Clemson — FSU lost 34-28 and GT lost 41-10

Opponent before FSU: Virginia — lost 16-9

Last time they played: On Sept. 12, 2020, Georgia Tech won 16-13 at Doak Campbell Stadium. It was Mike Norvell’s first game as Florida State’s head coach, and the Seminoles lost despite leading 10-0 at halftime.

By the numbers: Ranked 118th nationally in total offense (312.0 yards per game), 125th in scoring offense (16.1 points), 84th in total defense (392.6) and 68th in scoring defense (26.3).

Story of the season: Former head coach Geoff Collins was fired after a 1-3 start. The Yellow Jackets won two straight under interim head coach Brent Key before suffering an ugly home loss Thursday to Virginia. Quarterback Jeff Sims was sidelined with an apparent ankle injury in that game, and his status is not yet know for the FSU game.

Win Probability: FSU 90.1 percent, Georgia Tech 9.9

Miami

Record: 3-4, 1-2 in the ACC

Notable victories: 20-14 at Virginia Tech

Notable losses: 17-9 at Texas A&M; 45-31 at home to Middle Tennessee; 45-21 at home to Duke

Common opponents: None

Opponent before FSU: At Virginia

Last time they played: On Nov. 13, 2021, Florida State won a back-and-forth game, 31-28, to break a four-game losing streak in the series. The Seminoles jumped out to a 20-7 lead at halftime, then had to rally for the win after Miami claimed the lead in the fourth quarter.

By the numbers: Ranked 34th nationally in total offense (444.7 yards per game), 67th in scoring offense (29.3 points), 34th in total defense (343.9) and 53rd in scoring defense (24.0).

Story of the season: The first season under new head coach Mario Cristobal has featured one embarrassing moment after another. The Hurricanes have lost their last three home games to Middle Tennessee State, North Carolina and Duke, and they turned the ball over eight times Saturday against the Blue Devils.

Win Probability: FSU 62.5 percent, Miami 37.5

Syracuse

Record: 6-1, 3-1 in the ACC

Notable victories: 24-9 vs. N.C. State; 32-29 vs. Purdue; 31-7 vs. Louisville

Notable losses: 27-21 at Clemson

Common opponents: Clemson — FSU lost 34-28 and Syracuse lost 27-21; N.C. State — FSU lost 19-17 and Syracuse won 24-9; Louisville — FSU won 35-31 and Syracuse won 31-7

Opponent before FSU: At Pittsburgh

Last time they played: On Oct. 2, 2021, Florida State broke a tie game with a walk-off field goal by Ryan Fitzgerald to claim a 33-30 victory. The Seminoles led by 10 points in the fourth quarter but allowed Syracuse to tie it with just over five minutes remaining.

By the numbers: Ranked 61st nationally in total offense (412.6 yards per game), 36th in scoring offense (33.9 points), 13th in total defense (294.7) and 6th in scoring defense (15.1).

Story of the season: Thanks in part to the arrival of new offensive coordinator Robert Anae, the Orange have become much more formidable on offense this season. They also have benefitted from playing five of their first seven games at home. These next four games — against Notre Dame, Pitt, FSU and Wake Forest — should determine whether Syracuse’s strong first half of the season was as impressive as it looks.

Win Probability: FSU 38.1 percent, Syracuse 61.9

Louisiana

Record: 4-3, 2-2 in the Sun Belt

Notable victories: 23-13 at Marshall

Notable losses: 20-17 to South Alabama; 21-17 at ULM

Common opponents: None

Opponent before FSU: Georgia Southern

Last time they played: Have never played

By the numbers: Ranked 97th nationally in total offense (356.9 yards per game), 78th in scoring offense (27.0 points), 32nd in total defense (342.4) and 21st in scoring defense (19.0).

Story of the season: After a 13-1 season in 2021, not only did the Ragin’ Cajuns lose their head coach, Billy Napier, to Florida, but also several of their top players. They endured a three-game losing streak to ULM, Rice and South Alabama, but then rebounded with an impressive win over Marshall and a rout of Arkansas State.

Win Probability: FSU 85.7 percent, Louisiana 14.3

Florida

Record: 4-3, 1-3 in the SEC

Notable victories: 29-26 over Utah

Notable losses: 45-35 at home to LSU; 26-16 at home to Kentucky; 38-33 at Tennessee

Common opponents: LSU — FSU won 24-23 and UF lost 45-35

Opponent before FSU: At Vanderbilt

Last time they played: On Nov. 27, 2021, the Seminoles rallied from a 20-point second-half deficit to make things interesting before falling 24-21. An injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis set FSU back, and UF quarterback Anthony Richardson came off the bench and helped lead the Gators to victory.

By the numbers: Ranked 43rd nationally in total offense (430.1 yards per game), 56th in scoring offense (31.4 points), 109th in total defense (429.3) and 80th in scoring defense (28.1).

Story of the season: The Gators started the Billy Napier era off with a huge win over a top-10 Utah team, but it’s mostly been rough going ever since. Their other three wins have come against USF, Eastern Washington and Missouri — opponents with a combined win-loss record of 6-15. The offense has been inconsistent at times, and the defense has been mostly dreadful.

Win Probability: FSU 67.4 percent, Florida 32.6

Talk about this story with other die-hard FSU football fans on the Tribal Council.