Win-loss records might not tell whole story for FSU-Duke matchup
The records are the exact opposite. The Florida State Seminoles are 1-5 heading into Friday night’s road game in Durham, N.C., while the host Duke Blue Devils are 5-1.
But that doesn’t mean the game should be a mismatch.
Obviously, it could be, but when you dive a bit deeper into the numbers, you realize Mike Norvell’s squad and Manny Diaz’s bunch might be pretty evenly matched football teams — despite what it says in the W-L column.
First and foremost, the combined record of the Seminoles’ first six opponents this season is 27-10.
The combined record of Duke’s? 17-21.
The Blue Devils’ wins have come against Elon, Northwestern, Middle Tennessee State, UConn and North Carolina. The lone loss was in their last game, a 24-14 defeat at Georgia Tech.
And other than a blowout win over a 1-5 MTSU team, Duke’s three other FBS wins have been by a combined 12 points.
Victories are victories. And Duke has four more than Florida State at the moment. But despite the record, the Seminoles aren’t facing an unbeatable juggernaut at Wallace Wade Stadium on Friday night.
They are facing a team, though, that plays good defense. Duke hasn’t allowed a team to score more than 24 points in a game all year.
The Blue Devils rank second in the ACC and 25th in the country in scoring defense at 309.3 yards per game. They are also No. 1 in the ACC in third-down percentage defense and No. 2 in the ACC (and 23rd in the country) in scoring defense, allowing 17.5 points per game.
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Meanwhile, the Seminoles’ offense has struggled to score against anyone. And it has the worst rushing offense in the country at just 58 yards per game.
So, points could be at a premium on Friday night. Especially because Duke’s offense isn’t exactly putting on an offensive clinic so far in 2024 either.
The Blue Devils are 84th in scoring offense so far this season. And if you take away the 45 points they put up against Middle Tennessee State, which is one of the worst units in the country, Duke’s offense is averaging just 22.6 points per game. And remember, some of those contests were against the likes of Elon and North Carolina.
Not exactly a murder’s row of great defenses.
The Blue Devils are also 112th in the nation in rushing offense, but it should be pointed out they still average more than 60 yards per game than the Seminoles do in that department. And running back Star Thomas is on pace for a 1,000-yard season. He’s already got 528 yards on 113 carries.
And while sophomore quarterback Malik Murphy is only completing 60 percent of his passes, he’s averaging 239 yards per game and has thrown for 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hasn’t proven to be a running threat at all, though. He’s got minus-54 yards on the ground, and his longest run is just two yards.
So, no, neither of these offenses have been high-flying through the first half of the season.
But Duke has won five games. Florida State has lost five.
On Friday night, we’ll see if the underdog Seminoles can hand the Blue Devils their second loss of 2024.
If not, it will be Duke’s first win against an FSU football team in school history.
Talk about this story with other die-hard Florida State football fans on the Tribal Council.
