ESPN explains Georgia's biggest 'ifs' and questions for 2023

Surprise, surprise. The two-time defending champions of the College Football world are favorites to do it again according to oddsmakers in Vegas. Coming in at +230 according to Caesars Sportsbook, Georgia edges out the likes of Alabama (+600), Ohio State (+750) and Michigan (+800) – the only four teams that come in at less than +1000.

It won’t be a cakewalk. While the Bulldogs do have an easier schedule than in years past thanks to an SEC-forced cancellation of their game against Oklahoma, it will still take a strong showing from Kirby Smart’s squad to get back to the College Football Playoffs and take home the title for a third straight season. Not only would they be the first preseason No. 1 to win it all in five years, but they’d also be the first program to three-peat since the 1930s.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently released his “Ifs List,” and Georgia is in a tier of its own. The only team with two “ifs” that they must answer “to turn themselves into a genuine national title contender.”

First “if” is, Carson Beck must be ready. Georgia is replacing its starting quarterback of the last two seasons Stetson Bennett. While it hasn’t been decided or announced in any official capacity, the expectation is that Beck will be the guy to get first crack at doing so.

Beck appeared in seven games last season as the backup to Bennett. In doing so, he completed 26 of 35 passes for 310 yards and four touchdowns. Maybe more importantly, he did not throw an interception.

Beck still has to put together a strong fall camp, but his competition in the quarterback battle – Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton – have yet to even complete a pass collegiately. So, it’s understandable why Beck would be considered the favorite and why he’d factor in to Connelly’s biggest ifs surrounding the Bulldogs.

If … Carson Beck is ready. A four-star prospect who chose UGA over Alabama, Florida and plenty of other power programs, Beck is Stetson Bennett’s likely successor at quarterback in 2023. Coach Kirby Smart was not necessarily effusive when talking about Beck and the QB position at July’s SEC media days, but whether Beck, sophomore Brock Vandagriff or redshirt freshman Gunner Stockton wins the job, the starter will have a much stronger pedigree than Bennett, the former walk-on, did.

Still, Bennett was ridiculously good in 2022. He finished the season fourth in both Total QBR and the Heisman voting, and in Georgia’s only two close games (tight wins over Missouri and Ohio State), he was a combined 17-for-21 for 268 yards and two scores in the fourth quarter. Beck was awesome in a tiny sample, but he has to match Bennett’s late-game prowess — whenever Georgia actually plays in a close game, anyway.

Bill Connelly – ESPN

Behind Beck’s readiness as an “if” is Georgia’s other big piece to replace offensively, it’s coordinator and play-caller. Todd Monken has held those reins the last three seasons. Now – returning to the place he both previously played and coached – it’s on new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to keep up what the Bulldogs have been doing.

If … Mike Bobo is too. With offensive coordinator Todd Monken off to call plays for the Baltimore Ravens after overseeing outstanding improvement at UGA (Georgia ranked fourth in offensive SP+ in both 2021 and 2022), the playbook is now in Bobo’s hands.

As an analyst on last year’s UGA staff, Bobo is familiar with both the playbook and the personnel — all-world tight end Brock Bowers, wideout Ladd McConkey, backs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, among others. Considering that Georgia will almost certainly have another elite defense in 2023, this might be the easiest coordinator job Bobo has ever had. Still, college football offenses have changed a lot since the last time he oversaw a good one (2014, in his first stint at Georgia). If he’s not ready, neither is Georgia.

Bill Connelly – ESPN

Smart and the Georgia players say that things won’t be changing when it comes to verbiage of the offense and the overall idea of versatility and getting the ball in the hands of the best playmakers. In fact, that’s what one of the biggest draws to Bobo was for Smart when he was making the decision. Bringing in Bobo, who was on staff last season, to coordinate was done in the effort of creating continuity – and he was given Monken’s full support on his way out the door.

Bobo previously led Georgia’s offense from 2008 to 2014. It was in his final season before leaving Athens for a head coaching job at Colorado State that he helped orchestrate one of the Bulldogs’ top offenses ever – with a new quarterback at the helm might I add. Aaron Murray walked away from Georgia as the SEC’s all-time leading passer in 2013 while Bobo’s 2014 group set a school record for points per game.

So, for Connelly, both of these things factor into one of his overall biggest questions for the SEC East division and the conference (and College Football) as a whole this season: “What could possibly stand in the way of a Georgia three-peat?”

“The best case you can make for why Georgia won’t three-peat as national champion has nothing to do with what the Bulldogs will present on the field this fall,” Connelly wrote. “Yes, quarterback Stetson Bennett is gone after a storybook career, but he’ll be replaced by someone with incredible credentials (probably Carson Beck). Yes, Kirby Smart’s hire of old friend Mike Bobo to replace NFL-bound offensive coordinator Todd Monken was a bit confusing considering Bobo hasn’t been in charge of a good offense since about 2017. But Monken left one hell of a playbook in his office, and Bobo hasn’t had playmakers this impressive at his disposal since he was calling plays for Georgia more than a decade ago.”

“Let’s imagine for a moment that something does actually trip the Bulldogs up. What will it be?,” he later added. “Quarterback mistakes at the wrong time: Beck and fellow QBs Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton were infinitely higher-rated recruits than Bennett, but Bennett was mostly incredible last season, and changing not only the quarterback but also the coordinator/QBs coach could introduce some glitches. Counterpoint: The supporting cast is even better this year, with not only returnees in tight end — and likely Mackey Award winner — Brock Bowers, receiver Ladd McConkey and backs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, but also transfers Dominic Lovett of Missouri and Rara Thomas of Mississippi State; the two newbies combined for 1,472 yards and 10 TDs last season. The line returns four players with starting experience too.”

In discussing the defense, and the history of a three-peat, there are points and counterpoints made. Georgia has key pieces to replace on the defensive side of the ball in Jalen Carter, Christopher Smith and Kelee Ringo. There’s the pair of pass rushers too in Nolan Smith and Robert Beal to helped cover up many flaws of a relatively young secondary last season. The Dawgs do however return 75% of their players who saw 200-plus snaps last season on the defensive side of the ball (12-of-16) and recruited well on top of that too.

In the end, with all the ifs and buts, questions and concerns, Connelly says it’s easy to understand why the Bulldogs begin the 2023 season atop polls and preseason predictions – even if history is against their chances at a three-peat.

“Georgia begins the season No. 1 because of course it does. And the schedule offers only two projected top-20 opponents, one on the road. But if you’re looking for a reason to think a three-peat won’t happen, here’s a pretty good one: Three-peats don’t happen!,” Connelly wrote. “Neither Nick Saban nor Bear Bryant pulled it off at Alabama. USC couldn’t do it under Pete Carroll. Oklahoma didn’t do it. Neither did Notre Dame. Miami’s whole “titles only in odd-numbered years” thing prevented The U from doing it. Even Nebraska slipped up in 1996 between its 1994, 1995 and 1997 titles. Bad breaks in close games, poorly timed injuries, shaky attention spans … something usually trips a team up.”

“Attention span issues: The Dawgs dithered against both Kent State and Missouri early in the 2022 season and had to play a perfect final 10 minutes to avoid a loss to the Tigers; their weak schedule means their odds of reaching the CFP are high, but it also means that any slip-up will be more costly,” he continued. “Counterpoint: Besides Tennessee, who are they supposed to lose to? Auburn? They probably aren’t going to overlook a rival. And the only other road games besides Tennessee are against Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech. They aren’t losing to Vanderbilt or Georgia Tech.”

Georgia kicks off its season on September 2nd at home against UT-Martin (6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+/SECN+).