ESPN explains Georgia's best and worst case scenarios for 2023

ESPN’s college football experts released their preseason power rankings on Thursday and included a realistic best and worst case scenario for each of the top 25 squads. Georgia, who was voted No. 1 by 50 of the 57 people on the panel, came in on top with a best case that would leave people happy and a worst that isn’t all too terrible either.

Coming off of back to back titles, the best case according to ESPN is a third straight. While three-peats won’t be talked about within the walls of Georgia’s football building, the Bulldogs absolutely do have a chance. They return several key pieces from last year’s team and have added others that could even improve their play.

“Best Case: A third straight national championship. Georgia would become the first FBS program in the modern era to win three straight national titles. Minnesota was the last team to do it in 1934, 1935 and 1936. Yes, Georgia’s nonconference schedule is especially soft after the SEC ordered the Bulldogs to cancel a home-and-home series against Oklahoma, which is joining the conference next year. The Bulldogs replaced the Sooners with Ball State. They’ll also play FCS opponent UT Martin, UAB and struggling Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs play South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri and Ole Miss at home. They’ll play only three true SEC road games — at Auburn, Vanderbilt and Tennessee — and will face Florida in Jacksonville, Florida. Georgia will be heavy favorites in every game it plays. If Carson Beck steps in and plays well at quarterback, the offense should be explosive. The defense has to replace a number of key contributors again, but four of the top five tacklers are back in Smael Mondon Jr., Jamon Dumas-Johnson, Malaki Starks and Javon Bullard.”

As ESPN explains, much of the potential for success hinges on the play of Carson Beck. The presumed starter taking over for Stetson Bennett, Beck – a fourth-year junior – has seen action in 12 career contests. Last season, he threw for four touchdowns and 310 yards on 26-of-35 passing. During Georgia’s spring game, he impressed over the field of other quarterbacks – namely Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton – by throwing for 211 yards and a touchdown in the first half with the first-team offense.

Equally as important in the ceiling for the Bulldogs are the weapons that surround Beck. Georgia’s leading receiver of the last two years Brock Bowers returns, as do Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, both of whom finished top five on the team in receiving in 2022. Depth is a bit of a concern at running back in the preseason, but behind an offensive line that has four starters back from the National Championship Game, the expectation is for Georgia to be just fine.

Defensively, Georgia has five NFL Draft picks to replace but brings back key pieces including at least one at every level. Last year’s sack leader Mykel Williams was a freshman and is expected to build upon his strong showing. Defensive lineman Nazir Stackhouse was selected First-Team All-SEC, as were linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson and defensive backs Malaki Starks, Kamari Lassiter and Javon Bullard. Bullard won Defensive MVP in each of Georgia’s College Football Playoff contests including the National Championship when he forced three turnovers in the first half. The First-Team All-SEC selections don’t include last year’s leading tackler Smael Mondon, a Second-Team choice.

On the flip side of things, Beck’s performance also could determine the Dawgs’ floor. The schedule sets up in a way it’s hard to picture too many teams giving Georgia a run for their money, but with a tough test on the road against Tennessee late in the season on the heels of a game against an Ole Miss team that should have a strong offense to challenge UGA’s defense, it’s not impossible that Georgia drops one.

“Worst Case: Two losses? For the schedule reasons stated above, it’s difficult to imagine the Bulldogs losing twice in the regular season. If we’re talking lowest floor, then Beck would have to struggle in his first season as a starter and Georgia’s running game would have to be less productive. Beck will benefit from having what might be the deepest receiver corps in school history after the Bulldogs added Missouri transfer Dominic Lovett and Mississippi State transfer Rara Thomas. All-America tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey are back as well. Maybe Georgia slips up against Ole Miss at home and then falls at Tennessee on Nov. 18. Probably not. Losing at Tennessee and then falling to Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship is probably a more plausible scenario. If Georgia finishes unbeaten in the regular season and falls in the SEC championship game, will it get the benefit of doubt from the CFP selection committee? Or will its nonconference schedule keep it out of another playoff?”

ESPN’s FPI has Georgia with a record prediction of 11.4 wins and 1.4 losses. It’s the second-best projected record behind Ohio State (11.5-1.2). The Bulldogs have a better than 80 percent chance to win every game but one this season according to the FPI, and even that one (Tennessee) comes in with a 75 percent chance of the Dawgs coming out on top.

FPI gives Georgia a 21.5% chance of going undefeated, a 79.2% chance of winning its division (best in the country), a 42.9% chance to win its conference (best in the SEC) and a 59.0% chance to make the College Football Playoffs. From there, the Bulldogs are given a 34.2% chance to make the National Championship and an 18.5% chance to win it all, third behind Ohio State and Alabama.

Georgia Game-by-Game FPI Chances of Victory:

UT-Martin: 99%
Ball State: 98.9%
South Carolina: 93.7%
UAB: 97.9%
at Auburn: 88.2%
Kentucky: 90.3%
at Vanderbilt: 95.6%
Florida: 83.3%
Missouri: 92.5%
Ole Miss: 86.4%
at Tennessee: 74.6%
at Georgia Tech: 94.7%