ESPN takes look at returning production for Georgia Bulldogs

ESPN’s Bill Connelly is the mastermind behind the SP+ projections – a predictive power rating – and his first one is largely influenced by returning production. On Monday, Connelly took a look at the percentages of returning production for each of the FBS’s 134 teams, and Georgia comes in at No. 47.

Good for fifth in the SEC, the Bulldogs return 76% of their offense and 55% of their defense – ranked No. 25 and No. 80 in the nation respectively – for a grand total of 65%.

Connelly writes that he has been researching for a few years now the best way to represent the returning production. Not only does it include production that took place for players on the roster last season, but it also has a portion included for production brought in by the transfer portal. Overall, it accounts for anybody and everybody that played at the collegiate level last season.

“For a few years now, I’ve been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I have created shifts with each new year of data and has had to shift a ton with the rising number of transfers,” Connelly shared. “But the gist remains the same: High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement and regression. They might not guarantee a good or bad team, but they can still tell us a lot.”

“Quite crudely, if a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else, that dampens the overall blow of your QB leaving significantly,” he added. “Take Florida State, for instance. The Seminoles lost Jordan Travis to expired eligibility and saw second-stringer Tate Rodemaker enter the transfer portal. That duo accounted for about 93% of FSU’s passing yards in 2023, but because Mike Norvell earned a commitment from Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei, his 2,638 passing yards are now plugged into both sides of the equation, and FSU’s “returns” 49% of its passing yardage.”

It’s a whole lot of math to put into perspective what the Bulldogs bring back – and added by way of the transfer portal – to their team in 2024.

Led by returning starter Carson Beck at quarterback on offense, Georgia has production at all sorts of positions. At running back, there’s Florida transfer Trevor Etienne, while wide receiver has the likes of Dillon Bell, Dominic Lovett, Rara Thomas, Colbie Young (Miami) and London Humphreys (Vanderbilt) to account for. Oscar Delp will look to help replace the lost production of Brock Bowers at tight end, but even he has some experience under his belt. There’s also an offensive line that has four players that started at least nine games last season returning.

Flip things over to the defensive side of the ball, and while Georgia doesn’t rank as highly there, the experience that’s coming back is still impressive. Malaki Starks was an All-American in the secondary. Daylen Everette started every game at cornerback. In front of them is a front seven that features veterans like Nazir Stackhouse, Mykel Williams, Warren Brinson, Smael Mondon, Chaz Chambliss and others – including two sophomores that played important roles as true freshmen at inside linebacker: CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson.

And while it’s not factored into Connelly’s calculations, only helping in the continuity of Georgia’s squad is the fact that both coordinators are back: Mike Bobo on offense and Glenn Schumann on defense. The Bulldogs have had to replace a pair of coaches in the secondary, but they did so with two impressive hires – Donte Williams (USC) and Travaris Robinson (Alabama) – and bring back the entirety of the staff on offense.

All that’s to say, Georgia is in a great position entering 2024. That’s been known, but the numbers back it up. The Bulldogs are considered the favorite to take home a third National Championship in four seasons according to oddsmakers in Las Vegas.

To do so however will take handling a much tougher schedule. With Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, the days of divisions are gone, and Georgia will take on an eight-game slate that includes the Longhorns (No. 25 in returning production per Connelly) along with Alabama (No. 115), Ole Miss (No. 68), Tennessee (No. 94), Auburn (No. 50), Florida (No. 32), Kentucky (No. 102) and Mississippi State (No. 122). ACC non-conference foes Clemson and Georgia Tech come in at No. 54 and No. 46 respectively while UMass ranks as the team on Georgia’s schedule with the most returning production at No. 11 according to Connelly.