Georgia vs. Auburn: Who has the edge?

The 127th edition of The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry is almost here. Georgia and Auburn will lock horns in October for the third straight season. It still feels odd for this game to be played in the first half of the season, but the rich history between these two programs remains.

It’s the Bulldogs’ first SEC home game of the season, so there should be plenty of excitement and energy inside Sanford Stadium. We know how the sports books feel about this game. Georgia is favored by four scores pretty much every where you look.

With that said, there are different angles from which to view the matchup. Below, we look at six key areas to decide who has the edge.

When Georgia runs it…

The Bulldog faithful have been less than impressed with their team’s run game this season but Georgia ranks No. 4 in the SEC in yards per carry at 5.28. It has had three games this season where it averaged over five yards per carry and four with over four yards per carry. Georgia also ran it much better last week at Missouri than Auburn did the week prior.

Auburn’s run defense has been solid but no all that dominant overall. Mercer and San Jose State gashed the Tigers on the ground at times but that was in the first two weeks of the season. Since then Auburn has held each of its three opponents to less than 3.5 yards per carry. Edge: Georgia

When Auburn runs it…

When you consider the speed and athleticism of Tiger quarterback Robby Ashford and the tailback duo of Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter, it’s surprising that Auburn ranks 12th in the league in yards per carry. It would seem that there is some serious potential there but it’s also worth mentioning that the Tiger offensive line, despite some chatter from its end, has been underwhelming.

To no one’s surprise, the Georgia run defense isn’t what it was a year ago. Still, it’s quite good. The Bulldogs rank No. 4 in the SEC in yards per carry allowed. They won’t have the services of stud defensive tackle Jalen Carter and starting inside linebacker Smael Mondon is questionable. That makes this matchup a little closer than it would be if Georgia was at full strength. Edge: Georgia

When Georgia throws it…

The Bulldogs are passing for well in excess of 300 yards per game in 2022. They are also averaging more than nine yards per attempt. Georgia has accomplished that despite having its No. 1 receiver, AD Mitchell, for just one game. He could be back for this game. Georgia will also be able to use Arian Smith’s blazing speed as he returned to the field last week at Missouri.

Auburn sits in the middle of the pack in terms of pass defense. It isn’t giving up a ton of really big plays but it has allowed 14 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season, good for seventh in the league. The loss of productive EDGE defender Eku Leota to a season ending injury is a big swing. Edge: Georgia

When Auburn throws it…

Auburn is one of the least efficient teams in the league in terms of completion percentage. It ranks No. 13 in that area. But when you look at yards per pass attempt, the Tigers are averaging a rock-solid 8.1. They are also No. 3 in the league in pass plays of 20 yards or more. Auburn has also thrown two interceptions in four of its five games in 2022. The potential is there but the consistency has been severely lacking.

Georgia sports one of the SEC’s best pass defenses, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt. Most of the passing yards the Bulldogs have given up this year have come via the big play. UGA has allowed five passes of 30 yards or more and three of 40 yards or more through five games. That might be something that Auburn is able to exploit some but what about when the Tigers need to covert on third down or stay ahead of the chains? Edge: Georgia

Special teams…

Georgia has the superior place-kicking game based on what we’ve seen this season. Jack Podlesny has been rock-solid. Auburn has the slight edge in the punting game with Oscar Chapman averaging almost a half yard more than Brett Thorson.

Neither team has been particularly impressive in the return game with Auburn being quite bad at returning kickoffs. Auburn has the clear edge in the punt coverage game, holding teams to negative yards while Georgia is giving up over 13 yards per return. The two teams are very close when it comes to kickoff coverage. Edge: Push

Georgia vs. Auburn big picture…

It’s clear to see that Georgia, on paper, has the better football team. That’s why it is favored by four scores. The Bulldogs might also want to take out some frustration on their long-time rivalry for the way they have played the past two games and the comments made by Auburn offensive lineman Brandon Council.

We all know that games aren’t played on paper and emotion only takes you so far. But even with that in mind, it’s hard to ignore how much better Auburn teams have struggled inside Sanford Stadium since 2005. UGA is deeper, more talented, and playing at home. Edge: Georgia