Georgia at Mississippi State: Who has the edge?

Georgia is riding high right now after besting Tennessee last Saturday. The win allowed the Bulldogs to become the nation’s No. 1 team in all three sets of rankings. Things couldn’t be going much better in UGA’s National Championship defense.

Mississippi State, however, would love to change that. Mike Leach’s team will host the Bulldogs from the SEC Easts on Saturday (7 p.m. ET on ESPN). Georgia is the 16.5-point favorite but that doesn’t seem so steep when you consider that it opened as a 13.5-point favorite over Tennessee, the College Football Playoff Rankings’ No. 1 team at the time.

The game is not played on paper but let’s keep trying to look at every angle possible. Below, Dawgs HQ looks at five key areas to determine which team has the edge.

When Georgia runs it…

The UGA ground game has continued its ascent since struggling for three quarters at Missouri to start October. Stacey Searels offensive line has worked itself into a groove. The running backs are playing as well as they have all season. The only issue here right now is ball security with three running back fumbles in the past two games.

The Bulldogs from the SEC West aren’t great at stopping that run. At least that’s the case most of the time. They shut down Alabama a couple of games ago but three of the last four teams they’ve played have gashed them on the ground. Edge: Georgia

When Mississippi State runs it…

As hard as Kirby Smart has worked to try and get us to see MSU as some ground-game juggernaut, we don’t see it. Mississippi State can pick its spots in the run game but it isn’t going to hurt a team, especially one like Georgia, on the ground. That’s just not what Leach and company want to do. There’s no commitment to it.

Place Mississippi State’s lack of commitment to the run game beside UGA’s ability to stop the run, and you have a pretty easy call here. Edge: Georgia

When Georgia throws it…

Georgia is one of the SEC’s most productive, steady, efficient, and even explosive passing offenses. It hasn’t gotten the credit it has deserved all season but it’s getting close. We can feel it.

Mississippi State is better at dealing with the pass than the run, but it isn’t great at either one. The Bulldogs are right around the middle of the conference in average yards per game and a tick higher when it comes to average yards per attempt. Arkansas, Kentucky, and Alabama all had pretty good success before Auburn was able to nothing last week. Edge: Georgia

When Mississippi State throws it…

This is MSU’s calling card. This is what it does and it’ll have to do it extremely well to pull off the upset on Saturday. The Bulldogs from the SEC West are going to zip it around the yard and hope to average six-plus yards per attempt. They will try and lull Georgia to sleep with underneath throws and take their deep shots.

Then, when MSU gets into the red zone, it tends to execute at a high level. It has the SEC’s No. 1 touchdown percentage inside the red area. Georgia is No. 1 at keeping teams out of the end zone when a drive advances inside the 20-yard line. The Bulldogs from the SEC East are just too deep and talented. Edge: Georgia

Special Teams…

Mississippi State is the SEC’s best team in the kickoff return game. It has a touchdown on the year and has piled up over 600 yards in kickoff returns. That’s the one special teams area where Mississippi State has an edge. Georgia, however, doesn’t allow many of those and when it does, it covers them well.

Both aspects of Georgia’s kicking game are better than MSU. It is near the bottom of the league in both punting and field goals. That’s where Georgia has the edge. Everything else is very similar. Edge: Push

Georgia at Mississippi State: Overall

Georgia is favored by three scores for a reason. The Bulldogs from the SEC East are talented and they’ve shown time and time again that they know how to win tough games on the road. Leach got this team off to a really hot start in 2022 but it hasn’t seemed like the same group of late. Georgia should expect a focused effort from the home team but it should be able to withstand MSU’s best shot should it come. Edge: Georgia