Georgia given surprising ESPN FPI ranking in preseason
ESPN released its preseason FPI ratings and rankings on Tuesday, the company’s analytical dive into the College Football. It’s a season-long ratings and projection system that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” Using those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, the projections are made.
And while you might think Georgia should be No. 1 based on those criteria as the back-to-back National Champions, the Bulldogs actually find themselves coming in at No. 3 with a rating of 27.4 behind top-ranked Ohio State (31.5) and No. 2 Alabama (28.2). LSU and Texas round out the top five.
In addition, ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor uses those simulations to paint a picture for what the four-team College Football Playoff might look like come December. According to it, Georgia has the second-best chances to make the Playoff (63%) but the third best chances to win the National Championship at 19 percent. Ohio State leads the way in both with an 82 percent chance of making it in the final four and a 37 percent chance of taking home the title. Alabama’s chances come in at 63 percent and 20 percent respectively.
Georgia has a projected record of 11.7-1.2 according to the averages, a 22.4 percent chance of going undefeated, an 89.5 percent chance of winning its division and a 49.3 percent change of claiming the SEC Championship, highest in the conference.
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What does all this mean? Not much. Georgia has not begun either of the past two seasons higher than No. 3 according to the FPI. Of course, the Bulldogs brought home a championship trophy to Athens and finished at No. 1. In fact, they beat the only two teams ahead of them, and the No. 4 LSU Tigers, on their way to the titles, taking down Alabama in the 2022 National Championship Game 33-18 before beating LSU 50-30 in the 2022 SEC Championship Game and Ohio State 42-41 in the College Football Playoff semifinals of the 2022 season.
Georgia just wrapped up its 15 spring practices this past Saturday with the annual G-Day scrimmage. Afterwards, Kirby Smart spoke about the various position battles that are ongoing, saying that there’s still a long ways to go before the 2023 season begins in September.
“There’s about 25 percent of the hay in the barn. There’s 75 percent of practices left,” Smart said. “That includes our summer workouts and our fall camp workouts. In that 75 percent, we’ve got to climb the ladder and get some guys that can play winning football at that position.”
Georgia opens the season at home on September 2nd taking on FCS opponent UT-Martin.
