2025 NCWWC preview: Iowa women eye back-to-back titles
361 days ago, the Iowa women’s wrestling program won the National Collegiate Women’s Wrestling Championships – the first NCWWC team title in its history.
Now the Hawkeyes are looking to do it again.
The date(s)? March 7-8.
The setting? Xtream Arena in Coralville, Iowa.
The field? 320 athletes representing 63 different schools.
Among them, 15 Iowa wrestlers will contend collectively/individually for championship glory:
The season to date has been a wild success for the top-ranked Hawkeyes – including (among other things) an undefeated dual record (19-0), a National Duals title, and a perfect showing at last month’s Region VII NCWWC qualifier.
Of course, none of those prior accomplishments will help them win a single match this weekend.
Iowa enters NCWWCs as a significant favorite in both several weight classes and for the team title – both of which I’ll detail more here shortly. But it’ll also have to deal with the deepest field in the history of the tournament.
(And with the continued explosive growth of women’s wrestling at all levels, that latter statement is one folks should get used to hearing in the years to come.)
So, rather than attempt to match/exceed its 2024 accomplishments (six champs, nine finalists, 12 All-Americans), this Iowa team’s charge is simple:
Be the best version of itself – whatever that may be – on Friday/Saturday at the national tournament.
It’s a mantra Iowa head coach Clarissa Chun consistently emphasizes, and it’s clearly served her team(s) pretty well thus far.
If these 2025 Hawkeyes can similarly bring out the best version of themselves this weekend, good things will likely follow.
Here’s the path ahead (and some predictions) for each of Iowa’s 15 entrants at NCWWCs.
103 pounds – The Hawkeye(s)
#1 Rianne Murphy (27-3), #3 Sterling Dias (17-8)
For the second-consecutive year, Iowa boasts arguably the top two favorites at the lightest weight class.
This time, 2024 champ Emilie Gonzalez has moved up to 110, leaving a new Hawkeye in her stead as the top overall seed.
#1 Rianne Murphy is that Hawkeye after putting together a phenomenal freshman season – registering bonus points in 21 of her 27 victories (incl. 17 falls). And of her six non-pin/technical fall wins, four of those were either forfeits or injury defaults.
Murphy’s three losses this year are to the #1 NAIA wrestler, the #1 high schooler and her own teammate, #3 Sterling Dias.
She also has a win over Dias, 5-0 in early February at the Grand View Open, plus an 8-8 November victory on criteria over #2 seed Gabriele Tedesco (McKendree). In the latter bout, Murphy trailed 8-0 at the break before storming back for the come-from-behind win.
Meanwhile, Dias has been in a ‘comeback mode’ of her own all season long.
An opening weekend shoulder injury (against Murphy) sidelined the returning NCWWC finalist for nearly two months. Then, upon return, she dropped several close matches against elite competition whilst trying to regain her form/confidence.
Of her eight ‘losses’ this season – twice her previous career total – four came via injury default/medical forfeit. The others were against Murphy, NAIA #3 (2-1), #2 Tedesco (6-2) and #5 seed Rayana Sahagun (6-4).
The good news for Iowa fans is that Dias seems to be getting back to her old self at just the right time. The sophomore has won 7/8 matches entering NCWWCs with the lone loss coming to Murphy – a result Dias subsequently flipped in an impressive 8-2 victory in their regional final.
103 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #2 Gabriele Tedesco (McKendree), #5 Rayana Sahagun (Grand Valley State)
Other Names to Know: #4 Olivia Shore (Otterbein), #9 Maddie Avila (North Central)
Two-seed Gabriele Tedesco could present the biggest obstacle for an Iowa national title at 103.
The star freshman is the only contender in the field with experience against both Hawkeyes – losing a wild match to Murphy and defeating Dias in another closely contested bout at National Duals thanks to a pair of step-outs and two counter-exposures.
Another wrestler who has tasted success against Iowa this year is #5 Rayana Sahagun (Grand Valley State).
In January, when the Hawkeyes and Lakers dualed in Iowa City it was Sahagun (a first-year NAIA transfer) who narrowly edged Dias, 6-4. A four-point throw and a waived off Dias takedown at the buzzer proved the difference in that matchup.
Meanwhile, two other names worth mentioning are #4 Olivia Shore (Otterbein) and #9 Maddie Avila (North Central).
Shore was a 2022 NCWWC champion and Avila the same in 2023 – before taking fourth last season.
103 pounds – The Path/Prediction
It certainly won’t be easy, but there’s nothing truly groundbreaking about the path Murphy/Dias must traverse to a title matchup.
I don’t foresee much trouble for either en route to the quarterfinals. There, things start to really pick up.
#1 Murphy figures to see either #9 Avila or #8 Avery Kibelbek (King) – a seventh-place finisher from a year ago. Conversely, Dias’ likeliest opponent by seed would be #6 Jennesis Martinez (Colorado Mesa) – a three-time All-American (4th/4th/6th) whom Dias teched 11-0 back in 2022.
On to the semis and I wouldn’t expect anyone but heavy hitters to remain.
I think both Hawkeyes get the job done too – Murphy with her relentlessness and dominant top game against a potentially new foe (Sahagun/Shore) and a back-to-her-old-self Dias in a rematch with #2 Tedesco.
That’d set up an all-Iowa final – a burgeoning tradition – at the national tournament. Give me Dias to repeat her success from regionals and best her teammate for the second time in 14 days.
Finals Prediction: #3 Sterling Dias (Iowa) over #1 Rianne Murphy (Iowa)
110 pounds – The Hawkeye(s)
#2 Ava Bayless (29-3), #5 Emilie Gonzalez (31-5)
The simplest way to show folks just how loaded 110 pounds is this season is as follows:
Iowa has a pair of returning national champions who are seeded second and fifth respectively entering NCWWCs.
#2 Ava Bayless returns as the champ at the weight (then 109 pounds) while #5 Emilie Gonzalez bumps up after her 2024 run to a title at 101.
Bayless’ only losses this season are to a pair of NAIA foes (#1 at 110 and #4 at 117) and to this weekend’s top seed, Sage Mortimer (Grand Valley State), via fall.
As with most Hawkeyes, she too has been a bonus-point machine. 20/29 wins have come via either tech. fall or pin.
Two that weren’t? A pair of decision victories (8-4 and 4-0) against Emilie Gonzalez – the latter in their Region VII final.
There’s hardly any shame in that, of course. Gonzalez (23 bonus point wins) is still a buzzsaw at her new weight class.
Two of the sophomore’s defeats – to the NAIA #1 and to teammate Val Solorio – won’t be replicable this weekend. And she’s also in the opposite half of the bracket from Bayless.
That leaves an 11-5 loss to #1 Mortimer as the lone remaining blemish on her 2024-25 resume.
(I’d sign up for that rematch in a heartbeat, by the way.)
110 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #1 Sage Mortimer (Grand Valley State), #3 Samara Chavez (King)
Other Names to Know: #4 Kendra Ryan (North Central), #6 Chloe Dearwester (Presbyterian)
The reason neither Hawkeye is favored entering this weekend is due to the presence of the aforementioned Mortimer, as well as #3 Samara Chavez.
Neither wrestler has won an NCWWC title as of yet, but both have distinguished themselves in other ways.
Mortimer is the reigning U23 World champion at 50 kilograms (~110.2 pounds) as well as a challenge tournament finalist at the 2024 US Olympic Trials.
And Chavez has been on the doorstep of various collegiate/domestic titles almost more times than one can count.
Twice she has sullied late leads against Mortimer in major tournament finals, while also finishing 3rd/2nd/3rd in her past three trips to NCWWCs. A year ago, it was Iowa’s Felicity Taylor who knocked her out of title contention in their 116-pound semifinal.
Hawkeye fans should also keep an eye out for #4 Kendra Ryan and #6 Chloe Dearwester.
A senior, Ryan has finished 6th/5th/4th in her NCWWC career. She’s also traded wins with Bayless in recent years – dropping their latest contest 5-2 at National Duals in January.
Meanwhile, Dearwester is a freshman with loads of potential competing for a Presbyterian program with a trajectory pointed straight up.
110 pounds – The Path/Prediction
Much like 103, I don’t envision the two Hawkeyes facing much resistance prior to the quarterfinals.
I’d say the same about Bayless’ potential quarterfinal matchup, whereas Gonzalez figures to get a major test from #4 Ryan.
I think both Hawkeyes ultimately make it to the semis, where their championship run(s) (unfortunately) come to an end.
It feels like Mortimer/Chavez are just a cut above the rest of the field – even though we’ve yet to see a Bayless/Chavez matchup to my recollection, and the previous Gonzalez/Mortimer meeting from November was much more competitive than the 11-5 scoreline might suggest to some.
Should things play out this way, the Hawkeyes couldn’t meet until the 3rd or 5th place consolation match.
I think it’ll be for third, with Bayless keeping the upper hand in their ongoing series.
Finals Prediction: #3 Samara Chavez (King) over #1 Sage Mortimer (Grand Valley State)
Hawkeye Finish(es): #2 Ava Bayless (Iowa) – 3rd place, #5 Emilie Gonzalez (Iowa) – 4th place
117 pounds – The Hawkeye
#1 Brianna Gonzalez (34-0)
In the words of Olympic silver medalist (and Iowa teammate) Kennedy Blades, “I told Coach Chun I’m so happy I’m not at that weight. That’s a bulldog and I’m not trying to mess with it.”
That ‘bulldog’ is one Brianna Gonzalez, who continues to do nothing but show up, dominate, and repeat as a Hawkeye.
Now 68-2 over the past two seasons, the sophomore carries an undefeated record (34-0) into NCWWCs after finishing runner up to teammate Felicity Taylor in 2024.
A roster full of hammers fills the Iowa practice room every day. But if we take Blades at her word (which I very much do), there may be none fiercer than the larger half of the ‘Nightmare Twins.’
Even in her rare non-bonus point wins – all six of them (excluding forfeits) – Gonzalez has still prevailed by an average of 6.2 points/match.
And yet, despite all that I can’t in good conscience make her the favorite at 117 pounds.
117 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #2 Yu Sakamoto (Northern Michigan)
Other Names to Know: #3 Sydney Petzinger (North Central), #4 Clare Booe (King)
Not only doesn’t Iowa have a monopoly on internationally credentialed NCWWC entrants, but the United States doesn’t either.
Look no further than Northern Michigan’s Yu Sakamoto – a reigning U23 World champion from Japan.
Sakamoto is in her first year of American college wrestling much like her brother (Rin) – who just made his collegiate debut for Oklahoma State at a sold-out Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
The elder sister won her U23 World title in Albania last October, outscoring four opponents by a combined 35-4 margin.
That alone is enough to make her a co-favorite at 117 pounds this weekend and arguably puts her odds above that of Gonzalez if we’re being completely objective.
However, Sakamoto did lose one of her first matches as an American collegian, getting pinned by Sacred Heart’s Nohea Moniz – whom she’ll coincidentally face in the first round at NCWWCs.
But that was then and this is now. Sakamoto is fresh off a regional qualifier in which she pinned #3 Sydney Petzinger in the championship bout.
The very same Petzinger is a three-time NCWWC All-American (2nd/4th/4th) who does have a collegiate win over Gonzalez – an 8-4 victory at 2024 National Duals.
Since then, she’s 0-3 against the Hawkeye – including two blowouts and a 10-7 Gonzalez comeback win at 2025 National Duals in which she scored the final nine points of the match.
Gonzalez also has history with the #4 seed, Clare Booe (King).
The #2 overall recruit in the Class of 2024 used a four-point throw to win the first match of a best-of-three series between the two at U20 World team trials last April.
Gonzalez promptly responded with 10-0 and 12-2 tech. falls to earn the spot at 53 kilograms.
117 pounds – The Path/Prediction
Barring a surprise upset, I think we’ll see all four of the top seeds at 117 reach the semifinals.
For instance, Gonzalez’s quarterfinal opponent will likely be either #8 Alex Waitsman (William Jewell) or #9 Shea Reisel (Dubuque).
The Hawkeye has beaten them a combined four times this season, all via tech. fall (12-2, 10-0, 12-0, and 11-0).
I think Brianna downs Booe (again) to reach the finals, setting up perhaps my most intriguing matchup of NCWWCs against Sakamoto.
(It should be noted that Sakamoto trailed #3 Petzinger in their regional final, 1-0 early in the second period, before hitting the winning takedown-to-fall sequence.)
Look, do I feel great about picking against a reigning U23 World champion? Hardly.
Does my confidence wane even more so given her roots in international women’s wrestling powerhouse Japan? Absolutely.
But guess what? Brianna Gonzalez is a bulldog. And just like Kennedy Blades said, I’m not about to mess with her with my prediction.
Finals Prediction: #1 Brianna Gonzalez (Iowa) over #2 Yu Sakamoto (Northern Michigan)
124 pounds – The Hawkeye
#4 Cali Leng (36-11)
One of the best stories of this season for Iowa (among a handful) has been Cali Leng.
The unheralded recruit from Ohio stepped on campus in 2023 and was 15-12 in her debut collegiate season. A year later, she’s the #4 seed at the national tournament.
This, after plenty of folks (myself included) predicted one of her teammates to take hold of the starting spot that it turns out the sophomore grabbed and never relinquished.
And Leng isn’t just a scrappy upstart either. She’s won nearly 64 percent of her contested matches via tech. fall (15) or pin (6) while also defeating a trio of top-seven-ranked opponents to close her regular season.
It’ll be a tall task for her to knock off the very top tier at 124 pounds this weekend. But then again, a top-four seed and potential All-American status weren’t things I’d have ever predicted a few months ago either.
(It’s probably best not to put a ‘ceiling’ on Leng from this point forward.)
124 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #1 Amani Jones (North Central)
Other Names to Know: #2 Montana DeLawder (King), #3 Shelby Moore (McKendree), #5 Aspen Blasko (Grand Valley State)
A two-time age-level World bronze medalist and the defending NCWWC champion, #1 Amani Jones is the favorite this weekend in Coralville.
The North Central senior was twice an All-American (5th/2nd) before earning her first title a year ago. Jones had to work for it though, including a late semifinal pin to defeat this year’s #2 seed, Montana DeLawder – herself a three-time All-American (7th/4th/3rd).
Meanwhile, #3 Shelby Moore has previously toppled Jones on the collegiate scene, but finished fourth at NCWWCs in 2024.
And #5 Aspen Blasko is worth noting as well. Not only has the highly touted freshman battled Jones on several occasions this season, but she’s also 1-1 against Leng – setting up a potential ‘rubber match’ in the quarterfinals.
124 pounds – The Path/Prediction
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – I like this Hawkeye’s path to the quarters.
As it turns out, locking in a top-five seed has its perks in terms of (projected) bracket difficultly.
Who knew?
I think we do see Leng/Blasko: Part Three on Friday night. And I think Leng grits out another win, much like she did in a 2-2 decision at Carver back in January.
A top-six finish now locked up, the sophomore falls to Jones in the semis as she has in both of their previous meetings (10-0 TF and 2:35 Fall).
From there, Leng could conceivably face a favorable matchup in her consolation semi against either #6 Alyssa Mahan or #10 Ally Fitzgerald – against whom she’s a combined 3-0 this season.
Give me a 1-1 consolation record for the Hawkeye, who ultimately mirrors her seed with her inaugural NCWWC finish.
Finals Prediction: #1 Amani Jones (North Central) over #2 Montana DeLawder (King)
Hawkeye Finish: #4 Cali Leng (Iowa) – 4th place
131 pounds – The Hawkeye
#6 Emmily Patneaud (20-8)
Clarissa Chun’s decision on Iowa’s postseason starter at 131 pounds may very well have been the final lineup determination made.
And in a battle that was thrown curveball after curveball all season long it sure looks like the third-year coach made the right call based on the regional qualifier.
Emmily Patneaud was every bit the reason why.
The senior didn’t just qualify with ease – topping her bracket with a 3-0 first-place effort. She also gave herself a massive boost at NCWWCs by defeating #4 Kylie Rule (Warburg) in the regional final.
That victory vaulted Patneaud up the seed list for the national tournament, where she’s a very real threat to earn All-American honors – just as she did three years ago while wrestling for McKendree.
Roughly 1100 days later, Iowa fans would love if she could replicate that 2022 fifth-place finish.
131 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #1 Alexis Janiak (Aurora), #2 Sara Sterner (North Central), #3 Alexandra Szkotnicki (McKendree)
Other Names to Know: #11 Cassia Zammit (Presbyterian), Zoe Gress (East Stroudsburg)
In this writer’s opinion, the class of the field at 131 is Aurora’s Alexis Janiak – a back-to-back U20 World medalist.
She’s finished second and third in recent years but now feels like her moment to possibly break through.
#2 Sara Sterner is another two-time All-American who bears watching – especially with her propensity for big moves. She defeated Iowa’s 2024 starter Emily Frost in Round 1 at NCWWCs a year ago.
Meanwhile, third seed Alexandra Skotnicki has substantial history against Patneaud. The McKendree sophomore is 3-0 versus the Hawkeye in the past 11 months with none of the winning margins exceeding two points.
Two more names to know are #11 Cassia Zammit and unseeded Zoe Gress – for reasons I’ll detail momentarily.
Zammit took fifth a year ago as a freshman for Presbyterian. Gress, on the other hand, is a three-time NCWWC qualifier (at three different weights) and two-time All-American (7th both times).
131 pounds – The Path/Prediction
I mentioned Gress and Zammit because they’re a part of what could be a hellacious path for Iowa’s Patneaud.
Gress awaits the Hawkeye in Round 1, followed by a likely Round 2 bout against Zammit. Get through both of those and the puzzle that has been Skotnicki probably awaits in the quarterfinals.
And while the margins have been slim enough between the two that I’m hardly ruling out the possibility of an upset, I can’t in good conscience pick Patneaud in this matchup until I see things break from the consistent history to date.
A loss in the quarters leaves the senior one victory away from securing All-American status. I think she gets it before ultimately navigating her way to a fifth-place finish – echoing her 2022 performance at McKendree.
Finals Prediction: #1 Alexis Janiak (Aurora) over #2 Sara Sterner (North Central)
Hawkeye Finish: #6 Emmily Patneaud – 5th place
138 pounds – The Hawkeye
#5 Nanea Estrella (23-3)
In mid-January, I would’ve told you that Iowa’s Nanea Estrella was hands down my national title pick at 138 pounds.
Admittedly, my confidence was somewhat shaken as the senior lost 3/7 matches to close the regular season – including bouts to #1 and #3 seeds at this weight. But a tough, impressive showing at regionals has me believing again.
Hopefully Estrella feels much the same, as this weekend represents the one and only time she’ll get to compete in the postseason as a Hawkeye.
The 2022 NAIA runner up has gone through both redshirt (2023) and injury (2024) since arriving in Iowa City. Now, she’s got two days to make up for lost time.
A relaxed, dancing pre-match attitude is Estrella’s calling card for success, followed by an explosive offensive onslaught once the whistle blows.
The latter was reflected much of this season by the senior’s sky-high bonus-point rate (19 tech. falls/pins in 23 victories). If fans see that Estrella again on Friday/Saturday – watch out.
138 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #1 Katie Lange (Grand Valley State)
Other Names to Know: #2 Carina Giangeruso (Presbyterian), #3 Haylie Jaffe (McKendree), #4 Paige Wehrmeister (Presbyterian), #9 Nina Makem (Augsburg), #12 Alexis Gomez (McKendree), Athen Willden (William Jewell)
I mentioned the first and third seeds having wins over Estrella of late, so we’ll start there first.
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#1 Katie Lange would/should be considered the tournament favorite by most folks entering nationals. The 2023 NCWWC champ is undefeated following a redshirt/transfer to Grand Valley State and owns a 4-3 win over Estrella in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
She’s tricky, long, and an absolute handful for anyone at 138 pounds.
#3 Haylie Jaffe on the other hand, just arrived on the college scene. The McKendree freshman was an elite 2024 recruit, in no small part thanks to a U17 World bronze medal (2023). Perhaps a sign of her learning curve, Jaffe lost 8-0 to Estrella in December, then reversed the outcome (7-1) in early February.
Presbyterian continues to show up in this preview, and nowhere more so than at 138. #2 Carina Giangeruso (a freshman) and #4 Paige Wehrmeister (a junior) give the Blue Hose a pair of quality options at the weight.
Giangeruso defeated Iowa backup Cadence Diduch (ranked #9 prior to the postseason) 4-1 in late January. Wehrmeister – a 2023 All-American (3rd) – lost to Estrella 12-2 when Presbyterian visited Carver in November of 2023.
Some lower seeds of note are three-time All-American Nina Makem (seeded 9th) and #12 Alexis Gomez – a 2023 NAIA runner up and the sister of former Cyclone/Badger/Wolverine (and 2024 Olympian) Austin Gomez.
William Jewell’s (unseeded) Athena Willden is also in the field. A year ago, she was the #3 seed at 143 pounds and earlier this season competed up at 160.
138 Pounds – The Path/Prediction
Call it a homer pick if you want, but I’m riding with Estrella all the way to storybook ending to her Iowa career.
The Gomez/Willden winner in Round 2 is nothing to sneeze at, but I think the Hawkeye moves on to an advantageous quarterfinal against Wehrmeister.
From there, a rematch with #1 Lange presumably awaits.
This time, I think Estrella’s able get to her offense earlier and often-er (that’s a word, trust me) than when the two last met seven weeks ago.
And with one late-season loss avenged she does it again in the finals, defeating Jaffe to end her college career on top.
Finals Prediction: #5 Nanea Estrella (Iowa) over #3 Haylie Jaffe (McKendree)
145 pounds – The Hawkeye(s)
#1 Macey Kilty (23-0), #2 Reese Larramendy (26-2)
Sometimes (a lot of times) it’s good to be a Hawkeye.
And that sure is the case for Clarissa Chun and Iowa fans everywhere when it comes to 145 pounds.
In back-to-back Senior World medalist Macey Kilty, Iowa would probably have the biggest pre-tournament favorite of any weight most years.
(Hilariously – unless you’re the opposition – that won’t be the case this weekend. But more on that in a bit.)
Only thrice thus far in 23 matches has the #1 seed gone a full six-minute match in what will be her lone season of collegiate wrestling.
One of those – an 8-0 win – was against a credentialed senior-level foe. Another was an 8-1 victory over her teammate. And the last was an 11-6 win over #3 seed Bella Mir (North Central) – a match that was closer to a tech. fall than in the balance as Kilty gave up a few late points.
Anything but a continued run of dominance from the Wisconsin native at NCWWCs would be a huge surprise.
Before Kilty’s arrival in Iowa City, one might’ve predicted we’d be making similar comments about a different Hawkeye entering these national championships.
Instead, #2 Reese Larramendy has been ‘relegated’ to second billing despite her defending champion status and incredibly impressive accolades.
The redshirt sophomore owns a 73-5 career record to date. Of her losses, only four have come against collegiate competition. And of those four, only two will be represented in the field this weekend – both to Kilty (8-1 and 12-0).
This time a year ago, it was Larramendy who starred en route to an NCWWC title – bonus’ing her way through the field.
Now, her own teammate is the biggest obstacle in a bid to repeat.
145 pounds – The Field
Other Names to Know: #3 Bella Mir (North Central), #4 Aine Drury (King)
Mir, a 2024 All-American (5th) at 155 pounds for the Hawkeyes, has had an excellent year after transferring to rival North Central (IL). As previously mentioned, she wrestled Kilty at the 2025 National Duals but has yet to face Larramendy – her teammate at Iowa for two full years – in live competition.
#4 Aine Drury has seen both, however, though to decidedly unsatisfactory results.
The King senior led Larramendy in last year’s final at 143 pounds before being taken feet-to-back for the match-winning fall. Six months later, she reached the best-of-three finals at the 2024 World Team Trials.
Her reward? A pair of decisive beatings by Kilty, 10-0 and 12-1.
145 pounds – The Path/Prediction
Moving quickly – as she figures to do this weekend – anything other than a Kilty finals appearance would boggle the mind.
On the opposite half of the bracket Larramendy will be similarly favored up until the semis.
At that juncture, I’m fascinated to see what a match between her and Mir might look like. Having established the ridiculous track record that Larramendy has, I’ll take the current Hawkeye to beat her former teammate.
And I’ll utilize similar logic in predicting this all-Hawkeye final. Kilty and Larramendy have wrestled twice with the two-time Senior World medalist winning by an average score of 10-0.5.
It’d take something totally unforeseen for an upset to occur in a third meeting. But even if it did, Iowa still goes one-two.
Remember, sometimes it’s good to a Hawkeye.
Finals Prediction: #1 Macey Kilty (Iowa) over #2 Reese Larramendy (Iowa)
160 pounds – The Hawkeye
#1 Kennedy Blades (20-0)
Who are we kidding? You guys know the deal here.
Kennedy Blades’ Iowa career has been all that was expected since she arrived on campus last fall. And with NCWWCs on tap the expectation is that she’ll keep on rolling right along.
(You’re not going to hear any argument to the contrary from me.)
Anything but an individual national title and a perfect bonus point season (she’s 20/20 thus far) would be akin to finding Dasani water that actually tasted good.
Translation: It ain’t happening.
160 pounds – The Field
Other Names to Know: #2 Kaylynn Albrecht (McKendree), #6 Tiera Jimerson (North Central), #10 Keeley Kehrli (Simpson), #11 Alex Hofrichter (Dubuque)
Aside from #2 Albrecht – a two-time NAIA finalist and 2023 champ – these four names don’t necessarily represent the cream of the crop at 160 pounds.
What they do represent, however, is the four seeded wrestlers in the field to have faced Blades this season. All told, it’s advantage Blades, 43-0, with none of the matches going beyond the first period.
(Yeah, she’s pretty good.)
160 pounds – The Path/Prediction
My prediction for Blades’ path at 160 – one of complete and utter destruction.
Time your bathroom breaks accordingly and blink repeatedly before the opening whistle. Failure to do so may result in your missing out on the latest highlight reel, match-ending maneuver from one of the best wrestlers on the planet.
You’ve been warned.
Finals Prediction: #1 Kennedy Blades (Iowa) over #2 Kaylynn Albrecht (McKendree)
180 pounds – The Hawkeye(s)
#1 Kylie Welker (22-0), #4 Naomi Simon (34-3)
Not that she was in the habit of being scored upon last season – allowing just four total points against collegiate competition – but defending NCWWC champion Kylie Welker has been literally untouchable during her sophomore campaign.
22 matches, 22 bonus-point wins, zero points surrendered.
Since returning from her double World Championship medal-winning performance in October (U23 gold and Senior bronze) Welker hasn’t slowed down one bit. And for good measure, she even seems to crank things up a little bit extra any time an opponent with a notable ranking has the misfortune of standing across from her.
Twice, that has applied to her own teammate, #4 seed Naomi Simon.
A pair of technical fall losses to Welker make up almost the entirety of the freshman’s rare collegiate blemishes to date – an 8-4 November defeat against #2 Sabrina Nauss being the other.
Otherwise, Simon has been as dominant as any of her Iowa teammates. The Decorah native has still yet to win a match in anything but bonus-point fashion – going 34/34 with a team-leading 19 falls.
Absent Welker, the 18-year-old would arguably be the standout wrestler entering this 180-pound bracket.
180 pounds – The Field
Other Names to Know: #2 Sabrina Nauss (Grand Valley State), #3 Shenita Lawson (North Central), #5 Brittyn Corbishley (North Central)
Fellow freshman, Sabrina Nauss – a five-time Fargo champion and premier 2024 recruit – bested Simon in the Missouri Valley Open final. A four-point throw from a 50/50 upper body position proved to be the difference and is the only thing keeping Simon from having the #2 seed to herself.
North Central standouts Lawson and Corbishley are two more 180-pounders of note. The former split with Nauss this season – the catalyst for her #3 seed at NCWWCs. The latter was a two-time All-American (3rd/5th) at 191 pounds in 2023/24.
180 pounds – The Path/Prediction
It really is a bummer that the two Hawkeyes find themselves on the same half of the bracket.
In any other scenario, I’d have them meeting in the finals with the 2025 title on the line.
Instead, they’ll meet no later than the semis – which I’d expect to be the case with relative ease.
A quarterfinal between Simon and #5 Corbishley is the only potential speedbump I can imagine, but I think the star Iowa freshman gets it done just as she has pretty much all season long.
Once again, Welker prevails against her teammate before rolling to a second-consecutive NCWWC title. Simon wrestles back for third – with plenty of bonus points along the way.
Finals Prediction: #1 Kylie Welker (Iowa) over #2 Sabrina Nauss (Grand Valley State)
Hawkeye Finish: #4 Naomi Simon (Iowa) – 3rd place
207 pounds – The Hawkeye(s)
#1 Jaycee Foeller (22-2), #7 Alivia White (25-9)
Our tenth and final weight comes with the most suspenseful storyline of them all.
Can three-time NCWWC/NAIA runner up Jaycee Foeller get that elusive national title in her final season of eligibility?
The senior came closer than ever before a year ago, leading 6-0 in the finals before being pinned. Now, she enters NCWWCs as the top seed and is undefeated against NCAA competition this season.
Foeller did miss nearly two months of action with an injury suffered just before National Duals, but she showed no ill-effects upon her return at regionals.
Amidst that confidence-boosting return was an 8-0 win over teammate Alivia White.
The sophomore makes her NCWWC debut this weekend, seeded seventh.
207 pounds – The Field
Favorites: #2 Tristan Kelly (McKendree), #4 Traeh Haynes (North Central)
Other Names to Know: #3 Sarah Lake (Lindenwood), #5 Alyssa Favara (Lock Haven), #10 Ella Beam (Presbyterian)
McKendree’s Tristan Kelly would probably be the betting favorite if one were to handicap the field at 207.
The 2022 U20 World bronze medalist has plied her trade at 170 pounds in recent collegiate seasons, twice finishing third. A similar fate – one without a title – appeared destined midseason with Kelly competing at 180, but she’s made the wise (late) move away from Kylie Welker territory to the comparatively friendlier waters at 207.
If the size discrepancy doesn’t prove to be much of an issue, Kelly’s athletic advantage could be her title-winning weapon.
Besides Kelly (and Foeller), #4 Traeh Haynes isn’t a bad bet either.
The North Central senior has taken 2nd/3rd a heavyweight the past two seasons and has split a quartet of matches with Foeller in their college careers. The last of those was a dramatic first-period pin by Foeller in last year’s semifinal – a result that proved crucial in the down-to-the-wire team race between Iowa and North Central.
#3 seed Sara Lake is a two-time All-American as well, but just 1-5 in her career against Foeller. She did defeat White (3-0) back in December, however.
Lock Haven’s Alyssa Favara could potentially knock off one of the favorites amidst an excellent freshman season, even though she was teched (10-0) by White in late January.
#10 Ella Beam – White’s likely Round 2 opponent – has faced the Hawkeye twice previously, losing both matches via fall.
207 pounds – The Path/Prediction
I think Foeller comfortably navigates her way to the semifinals, White the same to the quarters.
There, I’d expect White to fall versus #2 Kelly, while Foeller contests another barnburner with #4 Haynes.
Give me the Iowa senior to make her fourth finals appearance in as many years. However, it breaks my heart as a wrestling fan to predict that she’ll take home second prize once again.
Meanwhile, White goes 2-1 on the backside of the bracket to finish seventh.
Finals Prediction: #2 Tristan Kelly (McKendree) over #1 Jaycee Foeller (Iowa)
Hawkeye Finish: #7 Alivia White (Iowa) – 7th place
The team race
This time a year ago, I spent a separate 2000-word article detailing how Iowa could possibly overcome the projected 30-point gap between itself and North Central.
Those Hawkeyes somehow pulled it off in miraculous fashion – coming down to the very last match of the national tournament.
This year’s group projects to have a bit more margin for error.
(Like, 42 points worth – give or take.)
Of course, we all know that neither wrestling matches nor wrestling tournaments are won on paper. And 2024 was proof positive that even an enormous (projected) gap can be overcome.
So, don’t expect me to crown the Hawkeyes as champs in advance.
Heck knows Coach Chun and Company aren’t taking that approach either.
That said, it’d be disingenuous to portray Iowa as anything but a substantial favorite this coming weekend.
The Hawkeyes can’t fall on their collective faces and feel good about their chances of a second-consecutive title. However, even a ‘B’ or ‘B-minus’ showing is probably enough to still pull out a comfortable win.
The thing is…Iowa rarely ever performs at a ‘B’ or ‘B-minus’ level – especially not when the lights are brightest.
I’ve got the Hawkeyes tallying six individual champs and nine finalists – ironically exactly mirroring what they did last season.
However, with 15 (predicted) All-Americans compared to a dozen in 2024, I think it’ll be enough to surpass both their own previous high team score (204) as well as the all-time NCWWC record set by McKendree (209) in 2021.
Behind Iowa, it looks like a battle royale for second place between #2 North Central, #3 McKendree and #4 Grand Valley State.
*I highlighted how individual/team scoring works in my comprehensive NCWWC Viewer’s Guide published earlier this week.
Short time
At long last, my work here is done.
Have I tested the limits of both Word Count and reader attention spans (once again)? Unquestionably.
And in some ways, I feel guilty for it – particularly the latter.
But the truth is also this: For the time being, I don’t know any other way to write this preview.
Or at least I don’t know how to do so in a different manner that would treat these athletes and this competition with the respect I feel they deserve.
So here we are, hours later.
(I’m referring to my typing, of course – hopefully not how long it’s taken a few of you brave souls to read this.)
And once again, I’m glad to have put in the work and am ecstatic about the tournament that lies ahead.
Normally added toward the end of these previews, all of the information regarding schedule/location/tickets/hotels/streaming/brackets/etc. for this weekend can be found in my NCWWC Viewer’s Guide.
So too, can a broader summary of the tournament’s format and participating athletes/teams.
I’ll have daily recaps of all the action on both Friday and Saturday. And as always, you can follow me on social media for up-to-the-minute news/results throughout the weekend – where I’ll have boots on the ground in Coralville.
Thanks again to all of you, both for reading this and for your engagement all season long.
It continues to be a treat for me to cover Iowa wrestling, and I’d (humbly) argue that no one is doing a more comprehensive job than we are at Hawkeye Report – especially as it pertains to the women’s program.
NCWWCs is their ‘Super Bowl.’
And of far less importance, it’s mine as well.
So, here’s hoping I can match the performance I expect we’ll see from the Hawkeyes on the mat.
(I’ll certainly give it everything I’ve got.)
