ANALYSIS: Big Ten predictions for first-round NCAAT games

Another women’s basketball season is in the books and now, it’s time for March Madness and the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Ten, it was an incredible season, with USC securing the regular season title and UCLA taking the Big Ten Tournament title. Although the two Los Angeles schools won the hardware, the conference is as deep as it’s ever been.

LINK: NCAA WBB Tournament Bracket

A record 12 Big Ten teams earned spots in the NCAA Tournament, placing the conference ahead of everyone else. The SEC (10), ACC (8) and Big 12 (7) put many teams in the field, but no one stacked up with the Big Ten. Over the past five years, the Big Ten has received 45 bids to the tournament. Looking at the seeding breakdown, the conference has four teams hosting regionals, a pair of teams on the 6 seed line, five teams in the 7-10 range and one team in the First Four.

Here are my picks for all 12 Big Ten team’s first round NCAA Tournament games…

No. 1 UCLA vs No. 16 Southern (Spokane 1)

Never before have the Bruins gone to the Final Four, but they’ve won a program record 30 games and are the No. 1 overall seed. If this isn’t the year, they make the Final Four, then when will they? In my opinion, the deepest team in the country, UCLA is led by NPOY candidate Lauren Betts and point guard Kiki Rice. They’ll go up against SWAC champion Southern who defeated UC San Diego in their First Four matchup. The Jaguars went 0-10 against Power 5 opponents in non-conference play, with a 25.1-point average margin of defeat. Southern is led by Second Team All-SWAC guard Aniya Gourdine, but the major is going to be the fact they are going up against one of the best defenses in the country, while ranking 298th in offensive efficiency, 228th in three-point percentage and 351st in two-point percentage. UCLA will roll in their tournament opener.

PREDICTION: UCLA 88 SOUTHERN 50

No. 1 USC vs No. 16 UNC Greensboro (Spokane 4)

The only team to defeat the top seeded Bruins this season is USC, and they did it twice, before falling in the trilogy at the Big Ten Tournament. JuJu Watkins is the headliner on the roster as one of the best players in the game, but she has plenty of depth around her led by forward Kiki Iriafen. The Trojans made the Elite Eight last season but are capable of a national title this season. Their first-round opponent is SoCon champion UNC Greensboro who enters the tournament riding a 14-game winning streak. The Spartans have SoCon Freshman of the Year Nya Smith but will be a heavy underdog in this one.

PREDICTION: USC 88 UNCG 52

No. 4 Ohio State vs No. 13 Montana State (Birmingham 3)

Outside of an Elite Eight run in 2023, the Buckeyes, under Kevin McGuff, haven’t been able to translate Big Ten success to NCAAT success. That being said, they are still a very dangerous team, finishing third in the Big Ten, led by Cotie McMahon and freshman Jaloni Cambridge. Their press that forces 22 turnovers per game could frustrate opponents that haven’t seen it. The first-round matchup they drew isn’t a cakewalk, going up against Big Sky champion Montana State who enters with a 30-3 record. The Bobcats are led by Big Sky Player of the Year Esmeralda Morales and are second in the country in forced turnover rate. Ohio State wins, but it could stay close for a bit.

PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 77 MONTANA STATE 65

No. 4 Maryland vs No. 13 Norfolk State (Birmingham 2)

Of all the teams hosting a regional, Maryland was the one surprise with many expecting it to be Ole Miss or Kansas State. The Terps are a very dangerous offensive squad ranking 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency, led by Kaylene Smikle, Shyanne Sellers and Saylor Poffenbarger. It is a little concerning that they finished the season 6-7 after a 16-1 start, but that could be an issue for later on in the tournament. But could it be right now too? Their last game was a 27-point loss to Michigan at the Big Ten Tournament and now they face a Norfolk State team led by former NC State star Diamond Johnson, who won MEAC Player of the Year. Maryland needs to be on full alert for this one, as the Spartans can force turnovers and have wins over Missouri and Auburn, plus close losses to NCAAT teams Alabama and Green Bay.

PREDICTION: MARYLAND 75 NORFOLK STATE 60

No. 6 Iowa vs No. 11 Murray State (Spokane 4)

The Hawkeyes managed to win ten of their final 13 games and were rewarded on Selection Sunday, avoiding a regional hosted by a 1 or 2 seed. Led by the play of Lucy Olsen and Syd Affolter, Iowa is rated as the 9th-best team per Torvik since January 21st, making them a serious threat to surprise. That being said, their opening round matchup against MVC champion Murray State is not a given by any stretch. Led by NCAA active leading scorer Katelyn Young at forward and a whole host of three-point shooters, the Racers average 10.3 made threes per game and are 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Their downfall could be their size and defense, with no players over 6’1 and a defense that ranks 320th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

PREDICTION: TBD…

No. 6 Michigan vs No. 11 Iowa State (Birmingham 3)

The surprise of the season in the Big Ten, the Wolverines are back in the NCAA Tournament because of their mix of freshman and veteran talent. Sporting a trio of freshman in the starting lineup, Syla Swords, Olivia Olson and Mila Holloway are averaging 42.0 points per game. The play of senior Jordan Hobbs has been critical to their success as well. Michigan will be facing the most dangerous 11 seed in the field, as Iowa State entered the season as a preseason top ten team. It’s a team with a lot of talent, led by sophomores Audi Crooks and Addy Brown, but the Clones never fully hit their stride during the regular season. The Wolverines are a balanced squad, ranking 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Matching up with Crooks in the post will be a challenge, but the perimeter could be an advantage, as Michigan is 29th in three-point shooting, while ISU is 344th in three-point defense. You might imagine that relying too much on freshman would hurt in the NCAAT, but the Wolverines have done it all year and the Big Ten is the perfect conference to prepare you for March. Michigan gets it done.

PREDICTION: MICHIGAN 77 IOWA STATE 70

No. 7 Michigan State vs No. 10 Harvard (Spokane 1)

It really seemed like Michigan State was destined for a 6 seed, but they lost out to Florida State for the final spot in that race. However, the Spartans are making their second consecutive tournament appearance under Robyn Fralick and will be motivated to make up for last season’s first round loss to North Carolina. Returners Julia Ayrault and Theryn Hallock were on that team, but the additon of center Grace VanSlooten is why this MSU team is a tougher out this time around. They’ll go up against Ivy League champion Harvard, who is led by one of the top scorers in the country in guard Harmoni Turner. She can win games by herself and put up 44 in the Ivy semifinals against Princeton. The Crimson are also stout defensively, ranking fourth in the country in points per possession allowed. This should be a good one.

PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 73 HARVARD 68

No. 8 Indiana vs No. 9 Utah (Birmingham 2)

This matchup should give you your fix for three-pointers if that’s what you like. Utah ranks 6th in the country, averaging 10.0 made threes per game, led by Gianna Kneepkens. Indiana isn’t too far behind, knocking down 7.9 per game, led by Yarden Garzon and Shay Ciezki. The Hoosiers run into trouble when they miss shots, as they rank 350th in offensive rebounding and that could be an issue, with the Utes ranking 9th in defensive rebounding. This game is a coinflip at best, but with three-point shooting coming to the forefront, I’ll take Indiana up against Utah’s 290th three-point defense.

PREDICTION: INDIANA 73 UTAH 70

No. 8 Illinois vs No. 9 Creighton (Brimingham 3)

It’s hard to know what to expect from this Illini team. They’re back in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years under Shauna Greene and did it with Makira Cook and Gretchen Dolan out since early January. Those injuries figured to be potentially season-altering, but then they won 10 of 11 games. However, that streak came to a close and now they enter the NCAAT riding a four-game losing streak.

They’ll face a Creighton team that is loaded with veteran talent, including fifth years seniors Lauren Jensen, Morgan Maly and Molly Mogensen. The ‘Jays won 26 games, but are just 2-6 against teams in the tournament field. Two things stand out to me. Creighton ranks 326th in offensive rebounding and 358th in free throw attempt rate, but makes up for it with solid three-point shooting. Ilinois ranks 27th in defensive rebounding, 61st in free throw attempt rate and 40th in three-point defense. I’ve backed Greene and Co. for a couple of years. Kendall Bostic, Genesis Bryant and Adalia McKenzie pay off my backing with a win.

PREDICTION: ILLINOIS 70 CREIGHTON 66

No. 10 Nebraska vs No. 7 Louisville (Birmingham 3)

One last time in the NCAA Tournament for senior center Alexis Markowski and she’ll try to make a run with freshman guard Britt Prince leading the offense. The Huskers are top 30 in made threes per game and have the firepower to make 10+ on any given night. That makes them a dangerous matchup.

They’ll face a Louisville team led by head coach Jeff Walz who knows what it takes to win in March. The Cardinals are led by fifth-year senior Olivia Cochran and ACC All-Freshman selection Tajianna Roberts. Neither team is very good defensively, with Nebraska ranking 242nd in effective field goal percentage allowed, 260th in three-point defense and 311th in forced turnover rate. As for Louisville, they rank 275th or worse in three-point defense, free throw rate allowed, two-point percentage allowed and effective field goal percentage allowed. The Huskers have the better offense, so I’ll take them to win.

PREDICTION: NEBRASKA 78 LOUISVILLE 72

No. 10 Oregon vs No. 7 Vanderbilt (Birmingham 2)

This matchup gives us two very contrasting styles, with Oregon’s defense leading the way, allowing just 62.9 points per game, while Vanderbilt is offensive minded team, averaging 83.6 points per game. The Ducks have a lot of size in the interior, with Phillipina Kyei and Amina Muhammad, while Deja Kelly and Peyton Scott are the top scorers on the perimeter.

As for the Commodores, SEC Freshman of the Year Mikayla Blakes has burst onto the scene as the best freshman scorer in the country, while forward Khamil Pierre is also a 20-point per game scorer. This game will come down to what scoring pace this game is played at. The more points scored, the better the odds for Vandy, but if Oregon’s defense and size makes a big impact the Ducks could grab the win. The ‘Dores allow opponents to shoot it well, but I think their offense will do enough.

PREDICTION: VANDERBILT 74 OREGON 65

No. 11 Washington vs No. 11 Columbia (Birmingham 2)

At one point, the Huskies were not considered an NCAAT team, but they won five of their final six to improve a 14-12 record to 19-13, which was enough to sneak in as one of the final teams in the field. Washington is 293rd in adjusted tempo, but they shoot in extremely well, ranking 10th in three-point percentage and 17th in two-point percentage. Over 75.0% of their scoring comes from their top four, led by Elle Ladine and Sayvia Sellers. Their opponent, Columbia, won the Ivy League regular season title and finds themselves in the First Four for the second consecutive season. The guard duo of Reily Weiss and Cecilia Collins have combined for 127 made threes, while Kitty Henderson can distribute and defend. These two teams, statistically, are very similar, but the Huskies are better offensively and have played well as of late. Expect this to go down to the wire.

PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 71 COLUMBIA 69