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Big Ten WBB Tournament Scenarios: Evaluating the Hawkeyes Potential Outcomes

On3 imageby:Kyle Huesmann•02/20/25•

HuesmannKyle

Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis will host the Big Ten Tournament.
Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis will host the Big Ten Tournament.

The Iowa women’s basketball team has drastically changed the outlook of their season over the last four weeks. Although an overtime loss in Columbus on Monday snapped it, the six-game winning streak they put together completely changed the Hawkeyes fortunes when it comes to the postseason. Most, if not all of the postseason talk is centered around the NCAA Tournament, but the Big Ten Tournament comes first, and Iowa is the three-time reigning champion.

If the tournament started today, the Hawkeyes would be playing on Wednesday, the opening day, as the No. 11 seed against No. 14 seed Wisconsin. Some of the bitter, heartbreaking losses earlier in the season have impacted Iowa’s positioning in the standings and they currently sit behind a log jam of teams that they have a combined 1-4 record against. Even if the Hawkeyes were to win out, which would include a win over UCLA, they would need a decent bit of help to get a draw that wouldn’t include facing USC or UCLA in the quarterfinals. However, there are still several scenarios that could play out, with many possible opponents.

Before we get into projections, here is where things stand right now, with tiebreakers accounted for.

CURRENT BIG TEN STANDINGS (FEB 20)

RANKTEAMCONFERENCEGAMES BACKOVERALLREMAINING
1.USC14-1–24-2ILL, @UCLA
2.UCLA12-1124-1@IOWA, @WIS, USC
3.Ohio State11-32.521-3@IND, PUR, MSU, @MARY
4.Illinois11-4321-5@UCLA, @USC, MICH
5.Maryland10-5420-6@NW, @IND, OSU
6.Michigan9-6518-8PSU, IOWA, @ILL
7.Michigan State9-6519-7IND, @OSU, MINN
8.Indiana8-65.516-9OSU, @MSU, MARY, @PUR
9.Nebraska9-75.518-9UW, @NW
10.Oregon9-75.518-9RUT, @UW
11.Iowa8-7618-8UCLA, @MICH, WIS
12.Minnesota8-86.520-8UW, @MSU
13.Washington5-98.514-12RUT, @NEB, @MINN, ORE
14.Wisconsin3-121112-14NW, UCLA, @IOWA
15.Northwestern2-11119-15MARY, @WIS, NEB
16.Rutgers2-131210-16@UW, @ORE, PSU
17. Purdue2-13129-17@OSU, @PSU, IND
18.Penn State1-141310-16@MICH, PUR, @RUT

PROJECTED BIG TEN STANDINGS (FEB 20)

Torvik has Iowa as an underdog in their next two games against UCLA (+8.5) and Michigan (+4.0), but has them as a heavy favorite to end the regular season with a win over Wisconsin (-19.5). Looking at Torvik’s projected Big Ten standings (with tiebreakers), the Hawkeyes would get the No. 10 seed, which would mean playing No. 15 seed Penn State in the second game on Wednesday afternoon.

1. UCLA: 16-1

2. USC: 15-2

3. Ohio State: 14-4

4. Maryland: 13-5

5. Illinois: 12-6

6. Michigan: 11-7

7. Nebraska: 11-7

8. Oregon: 11-7

9. Michigan State: 11-7

10. Iowa: 9-9

11. Minnesota: 9-9

12. Indiana: 9-9

13. Washington: 6-12

14. Wisconsin: 4-14

15. Penn State: 3-15

– – – – – – –

16. Northwestern: 2-14

17. Rutgers: 2-16

18. Purdue: 2-16

What is the best scenario for the Hawkeyes?

It really comes down to perspective and what you value when it comes to what scenario you ultimately decide to root for. Assuming the Hawkeyes don’t pull another major upset at Carver and defeat UCLA on Sunday, that will narrow the outcomes a bit. Keeping the NCAAT in mind, Iowa would really like to get their resume to a point where they can work their way into the conversation for a 6 seed, which would allow them to avoid a 1 or 2 seed in the second round.

Here are a couple of scenarios to chew on and mull over, with both assuming Iowa defeats Michigan and Wisconsin.

– The Torvik projected bracket gives Iowa a realistic chance at two wins, but Nebraska is right on the edge of being Q1. It’s possible they could get two wins, but not really add a ton to their resume.

– Iowa finishes at 10-8 and gets the No. 9 seed, facing Michigan State on day two. Would be a chance at a NET top 20 win, but UCLA in the quarterfinals would likely mean a 1-1 tournament stay.

– Another possibility includes a six-way tie at 10-8 that Iowa loses out on for a myriad of reasons. They get the No. 11 seed, with their path to the semifinals being Wisconsin, Michigan and a rematch with Ohio State. Although 11 seed sounds bad, this might be the Hawkeyes best path to three wins and a 23-10 record that might earn them a 6 seed.

Up Next: The Hawkeyes host the #3 UCLA Bruins on Sunday afternoon at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Tipoff is set for 1:00pm CT on Peacock.

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