Big Ten Women's Basketball: Conference play preview

It wasn’t long ago that we were finalizing our preseason predictions and watching exhibition games. Fast forward to now; Feast Week has just been completed and, all of the sudden, it’s time for the opening matchups of Big Ten play over the next ten days. Through the first month of the season, we’ve seen USC get unseated as the perceived favorite in the conference, while some teams have surprised, and some teams have gotten off to slower starts. We aren’t even close to knowing everything about the 18-team Big Ten, but we do know that the conference could threaten to put a double-digit number of teams in the NCAA Tournament.

It’s still early and there is a ton of basketball left to be played, but we took a shot at trying to put teams into some categories. For now, this is just a quick look at how each team in the Big Ten has fared prior to their Big Ten opener.

Conference Contenders

#1 UCLA Bruins (8-0) (NET 3) (Dec 8: at Washington)

Many had the Trojans tabbed as the preseason favorite in the Big Ten, but the Bruins have emerged as the favorite after the first month. They torched then #1 South Carolina in Los Angeles and also have a win over #22 Louisville. Lauren Betts (19.1 PPG, 10.9 REB) has been what everyone expected to lead the way, but she’s far from the only one. UCLA may very well have the best roster in the country. Don’t forget that Wazzu transfer Charlisse Leger-Walker will eventually join the fold, giving them eight players that could start on any night. The biggest surprise has been true freshman guard Elina Aarnisalo (9.5 PPG, 6.3 AST). UCLA has been the most impressive team in the country through the first month of the season.

#6 USC Trojans (7-1) (NET 14) (Dec 7: at Oregon)

The Trojans may have gotten unseated as the favorite to win the Big Ten, but there’s no debating they’re still the fiercest competitor. USC defeated #18 Ole Miss in the season opener, but fell to #10 Notre Dame by double digits, and have largely beaten up on lesser competition for their other six wins. JuJu Watkins (25.5 PPG, 6.3 REB) is still trying to find her top gear, as she has struggled with turnovers and her three-point shooting, but put up 40 points and nine threes against California Baptist on Tuesday. Stanford transfer Kiki Iriafen (18.4 PPG, 8.8 REB) has been great, but overall, it feels like it’s just taking some time for USC to fit all of their pieces together.

#7 Maryland Terrapins (9-0) (NET 16) (Dec 7: at Purdue)

There was a lot of uncertainty with the Terps coming into the season, just because we didn’t know how all of their pieces from the transfer portal would fit together. The answer so far has been pretty good, as Maryland is undefeated with wins over #8 Duke, George Mason and Syracuse. They’ve dominated on the glass, ranking fourth in the country in total rebound percentage, while Rutgers transfer Kaylene Smikle (17.9 PPG, 3.8 REB) has established herself as one of the better players in the Big Ten. Similar to UCLA, Brenda Frese could probably start any of her top eight players, as all three main bench players were starters last season. So far, Maryland has looked like a team that can contend.

#12 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) (NET 15) (Dec 8: vs #21 Illinois)

The only team in the top four that has yet to play a ranked team, Ohio State’s best win came on the road at 3-4 Belmont (NET 71) by just four points. While they are the only one of these four to not yet face a ranked team, they get #21 Illinois in their Big Ten opener. Currently, the main concern with the Buckeyes is the health of star forward Cotie McMahon. She has missed the last four games due to a lower-leg injury. OSU has been fine without her, as true freshman Jaloni Cambridge (16.1 PPG, 4.9 AST), Oregon transfer Chance Gray (16.0 PPG, 23 3PT) and Kentucky transfer Ajae Petty (11.7 PPG, 7.7 REB) have all been standouts as newcomers. If they can get McMahon back to 100%, the Buckeyes will be squarely in this group once the middle of Big Ten play hits.

NCAA Tournament Bound

#17 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-0) (NET 29) (Dec 15: at #24 Michigan State)

The Hawkeyes haven’t really been forcefully tested yet, winning seven of their eight games by double digits, but do have wins over Kansas, Drake, Virginia Tech, Washington State and BYU. Villanova transfer Lucy Olsen (17.3 PPG, 5.3 AST) has been fantastic and, luckily, avoided disaster, after a freak knee injury in Cancun looks to only keep her out of two games. Senior Addi O’Grady (15.0 PPG, 4.8 REB) has been a pleasant surprise at center, but Jan Jensen’s squad has really upped the intensity on the defensive end, ranking 38th in points allowed per possession. The schedule really ramps up the next couple of weeks, which will tell us a lot about this team.

#21 Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1) (NET 36) (Dec 8: at #12 Ohio State)

After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, Shauna Green appears to, not only have an NCAA Tournament team, but a Top 25 team in Champaign this season. The Illini defeated Florida State in the season opener, but their other six wins have a combined 10-30 record, while they got outscored 48-25 in the second half of their loss to #14 Kentucky. Offensively, they’ve really spread the wealth, with six players averaging in double figures, led by Kendall Bostic (16.0 PPG, 10.1 REB) and Makira Cook (12.7 PPG, 3.7 AST). This team is better than last season, but they’ll need to improve on their 26.4% three-point percentage (284th) if they really want to make some noise.

#24 Michigan State Spartans (8-0) (NET 5) (Dec 15: vs #17 Iowa)

After starting the season with five buy games and a short trip to over Western Michigan, Michigan State validated themselves as a Top 25 team out west at the Acrisure Invitational, with wins over 7-0 California and 8-0 Vanderbilt. Oregon transfer Grace VanSlooten (17.3 PPG, 8.6 REB) has proven to be a great pairing with Julia Ayrault (16.3 PPG, 8.0 REB), while Theryn Hallock (12.6 PPG) gives them three players in double figures. Those early season cupcake games inflated some of their team statistics, but this Spartans team is good enough to push for a top five finish in the standings.

Wildcard Teams – NCAAT, WBIT or WNIT Possible

Indiana Hoosiers (6-3) (NET 49) (Dec 7: at Penn State)

The Hoosiers have by far been the most confusing team in the conference thus far. They’ve got wins over Baylor, Stanford and Columbia, but lost to Butler, Harvard and we’re smacked by #16 North Carolina in the Bahamas. Offensively, they have four players averaging in double figures, led by Yarden Garzon (13.8 PPG, 22 3PT) and Lilly Meister (11.6 PPG, 6.7 REB). However, without a clear, go-to scorer like they had with Mackenzie Holmes, Indiana has struggled to score at times. Those struggles could be even more apparent with Sydney Parrish out for the next few weeks. They’re averaging just 67.1 points per game and rank 183rd in three-point shooting. I could see their season going many different ways from here.

#23 Michigan Wolverines (7-1) (NET 18) (Dec 8: vs Northwestern)

Were we massively wrong about Michigan? If November was any indication, it’s that the Wolverines were incredibly underrated coming into the season. They pushed then #1 South Carolina to the brink in the season-opener, while they recently defeated Belmont and Virginia Tech to win the Fort Myers Tip-Off Title. Five-star freshman Syla Swords (18.8 PPG, 7.6 REB) and Olivia Olson (16.1 PPG, 5.8 REB) have carried the show, while veteran Jordan Hobbs (13.4 PPG, 6.4 REB) has been playing the best basketball of her career. Big Ten play will really test the youth on their roster, but they’ve handled everything well to this point.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-1) (NET 34) (Dec 8: vs Minnesota)

The Huskers were a preseason pick to make the NCAA Tournament, but losing Big Ten Freshman of the Year Natalie Potts for the season with an ACL tear threw a wrench into things. All seven of Nebraska’s wins are against Q4 opponents, while their loss came to Creighton. Alexis Markowski (14.5 PPG, 8.3 REB) and five-star freshman point guard Britt Prince (14.1 PPG, 3.1 AST) will have to carry the load in the absence of Potts, but others must step up. Callin Hake (7.9 PPG, 3.8 AST), Logan Nissley (7.1 PPG) and Florida transfer Alberte Rimdal (8.6 PPG) will be the candidates. If they don’t beat Georgia Tech on Dec. 21, the Huskers will enter Big Ten play without a non-Q4 win, which would put them way behind the 8-ball resume wise.

Oregon Ducks (7-2) (NET 48) (Dec 7: vs #6 USC)

The Ducks got off to a 6-0 start, with wins over then #12 Baylor, Grand Canyon and Auburn, but faltered on their trip to Hawaii, with losses to Georgia Tech and South Dakota State. UNC transfer Deja Kelly (11.1 PPG, 5.2 REB, 3.7 AST) has led the way, as have Peyton Scott (11.3 PPG) and Texas transfer Amina Muhammad (10.6 PPG, 5.3 REB). Head coach Kelly Graves needs to settle in on a rotation with ten players having started at least one game. Similar to Indiana, the Ducks are relying on a lot of role players and don’t really have a go-to scorer. I could see Oregon falling off a bit, but they still have enough talent to hang around in the NCAAT discussion.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-0) (NET 32) (Dec 8: at Nebraska)

Yes, the Gophers are undefeated, but they haven’t played a single NET Top 100 team and won’t in non-conference play. That means they’ll have to pick up some resume boosting wins in Big Ten play, but they’ll have to do it without Mara Braun who is out indefinitely with a broken foot. Nebraska transfer Annika Stewart (11.1 PPG) and Michigan transfer Taylor Woodson have both been good off the bench, while point guard Amaya Battle (7.3 PPG, 4.3 AST) and Grace Grocholski (10.1 PPG, 5.2 REB) lead the starters. Minnesota was 2-10 against Big Ten teams without Mara Braun last season and the conference is deeper this season.

Penn State Lady Lions (8-1) (NET 58) (Dec 7: vs Indiana)

The Lady Lions have been a bit of a surprise, starting 8-1, including a win over Georgia, but fell to St John’s last time out. Bellarmine transfer Gracie Merkle (20.2 PPG, 9.9 REB) has been a huge addition, while Moriah Murray (16.2 PPG, 37 3PT) leads the country in made threes. December will tell us a lot about Penn State, as they have Indiana, Kansas and Minnesota on the schedule leading up to a meeting with #17 Iowa on January 1st. To this point, head coach Carolyn Kieger has her team playing better than expected.

Washington Huskies (7-2) (NET 86) (Dec 8: vs #1 UCLA)

Washington is off to a 7-2 start, with eight of those nine games coming against Q4 opponents, but two games stand out. The Huskies oddly got beat handily at Montana (NET 220) but did take #5 LSU to the final buzzer in the Bah Mar Pink Flamingo Tournament. Offensively, the trio of Elle Ladine (14.8 PPG, 6.1 REB), Sayvia Sellers (14.8 PPG) and Dalayeh Daniels (10.4 PPG, 6.0 REB) lead the way, while they rank second in the Big Ten in made threes. The Huskies also rank 35th in total rebounding and 57th in points allowed per possession. Washington is good enough to scare some teams, but I don’t think they’ll win enough of them to really make a run at an NCAAT bid.

The bottom of the conference

Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) (NET 83) (Dec 8: vs Rutgers)

There’s no doubt that head coach Marisa Moseley has raised the level of play at Wisconsin since she took over the program, but the addition of four new teams to the conference will make it tough for them to make a repeat trip to the WNIT. The Badgers are off to a 7-2 start, including a win over Georgetown. Serah Williams (17.3 PPG, 12.0 REB) and Northern Kentucky transfer Carter McCray (10.6 PPG, 7.4 REB) have been a solid frontcourt duo, while Duquesne transfer Tess Myers (8.4 PPG, 22 3PT) is on track to be the first Badger to make 70+ threes since 2015-16. Wisconsin is 1-14 under Moseley against ranked teams and they’re set to face nine of them in Big Ten play.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-3) (NET 145) (Dec 8: at Wisconsin)

It’s been a tough go the last few seasons for Rutgers, but they’ve competed so far this season. Even though they are 0-3 against non-Q4 opponents, the Scarlet Knights blew a late lead against Marquette and took Virginia Tech to the wire in Blacksburg. A lot of the excitement with this team is surrounding the duo of Destiny Adams (19.3 PPG, 10.9 REB) and five-star freshman Kiyomi McMiller (18.3 PPG, 62 FG), who have combined for 50.4% of the points. Although it may not necessarily show up in the win column, I think Rutgers is an improved team and should compete a little bit more than last season.

Purdue Boilermakers (6-3) (NET 166) (Dec 7: vs #7 Maryland)

The lowest ranked Big Ten team in the initial NET rankings, Purdue is 5-3 overall, but their wins have come against teams with a combined 14-25 record. They’ve been outscored 201-99 in their two games against ranked teams, which isn’t a good sign, considering the Big Ten has nine ranked teams. Stephen F Austin transfer Destini Lombard (14.0 PPG, 5.8 REB) and Akron transfer Reagan Bass (13.0 PPG, 6.5 REB) have scored 41% of the teams’ points. The big issue is defense, where they rank 260th in points allowed per possession. Purdue might be an underdog in 16 or 17 of their 18 Big Ten games.

Northwestern Wildcats (4-3) (NET 163) (Dec 8: at #23 Michigan)

The preseason pick to finish last in the Big Ten, Northwestern notched a shocking upset win over Utah but have been blown out by Harvard and Lehigh. Joe McKeown has gotten solid play from Michigan transfer Taylor Williams (12.3 PPG, 9.4 REB) and Brown transfer Kyla Jones (11.3 PPG), but they’re only averaging 67.1 points per game. Defense is still a sizeable issue, as they rank 280th in points allowed per possession. Warren Nolan does not have as a favorite in any of their 18 Big Ten games.

My Updated Big Ten Postseason Predictions

NCAAT – UCLA, USC, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan State

Bubble – Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon, Indiana

WBIT/WNIT – Penn State, Minnesota, Washington

No Postseason – Wisconsin, Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern