Bracketology: Where Iowa Baseball stands with two weeks left to play

No one really expected this year’s Iowa Baseball team to be one that would contend for a Big Ten championship and a spot in an NCAA Regional. The Hawkeyes, coming off a season that came up well short of expectations, were not picked to finish in the top six in the preseason Big Ten media poll. With plenty of new faces, both young players and transfers, moving into prominent roles, it felt like almost everything would have to fall right Iowa.

For the most part, it has, and the Hawkeyes, sitting with a 32-15 overall record and a 21-6 mark in Big Ten play, are looking to win their first Big Ten regular season title since 1990, while a regional appearance would be their fourth under head coach Rick Heller.

This past weekend, Iowa traveled out to Seattle, dropping two of three against the Washington Huskies, with both losses coming in walk off fashion. It was the Hawkeyes first series loss in Big Ten play, but they got some help elsewhere, with USC taking two of three from UCLA and Michigan State getting one of three from Oregon. After all the dust settled on Sunday afternoon, Iowa found themselves in the same spot they started the weekend, with a 2.5-game lead over UCLA.

A look at the Hawkeyes NCAA Tournament resume

The Hawkeyes resume looks a lot like you’d expect from a Big Ten team. Although the conference is the toughest it’s ever been, with 12 RPI top 100 teams, that hasn’t translated to many Q1 games, but they are still hanging on to a road Q1 series sweep over Michigan. Iowa owns a 15-5 record against the RPI Top 100, including a road sweep of Minnesota, a home sweep of Indiana and a road win over heavy ASUN favorite Stetson. There are still big opportunities left, with RPI 7 Oregon State coming to Des Moines this weekend, while RPI 24 Oregon comes to Des Moines to close out the regular season.

Overall, the Hawkeyes have a 19-9 overall record in non-Q4 games, which would be plenty good enough, most years, for a top 50 RPI. However, a handful of losses have made their resume an interesting one to handle. They hold a 2.5-game lead atop the Big Ten standings, but on the other hand, they are 65th in the RPI, which is good for sixth-best in the conference. Midweek losses to RPI 156 Illinois State (x2) and RPI 215 Western Illinois have not been good, but dropping three of four to RPI 202 Washington State is the one that hurts the most. A 4-2 record in those games, rather than a 1-6 record would have Iowa in a comfortable at-large position.

What the brackets are saying…

On3 – 3 seed – In the latest projection by On3’s Jonathan Wagner, the Hawkeyes come in as a 3 seed in the Austin Regional hosted by the #1 Texas Longhorns. Their opening game would come against projected AAC champion UTSA, while projected SWAC champion Bethune-Cookman rounds out the regional.

D1Baseball – Last Four In – In the latest projection by the D1Baseball crew, the Hawkeyes come in as a 3 seed in the Chapel Hill Regional hosted by the #7 North Carolina Tar Heels. Their opening game would come against Ole Miss, while projected Patriot League champion Holy Cross rounds out the regional. Iowa is listed as one of the ‘Last Four In’, along with Xavier, Kansas State and Kentucky.

What do the Hawkeyes need to do to lock up an at-large bid?

The simple answer is this, win the Big Ten regular season title. That’s the easiest path to an at-large bid if they don’t go on to win the Big Ten Tournament. Iowa currently holds a 2.5-game lead over UCLA, needing some combination of three Hawkeye wins or Bruins losses to clinch the title. UCLA has six games remaining, with three on the road against Illinois and three at home against Northwestern. Meanwhile, Iowa just has three-game home series with Oregon left to play. D1Baseball’s Kendall Rogers agrees that if the Hawkeyes win the Big Ten crown it would hard to leave them out of the field.

“I do think if Iowa won the regular season title and had an RPI in the 55-60 range, it would be in the field no matter what. I just think the committee typically has some leeway for the northern teams who have a lot of obstacles to deal with,” said Rogers. “With that said, a team like Washington, who has the H2H and keeps slowly scaling the RPI, would scare me a little bit if I’m Iowa.”

I want to touch on a couple of points that he mentioned, starting with the RPI in the 55-60 range. Iowa currently sits at 65 in the RPI, which means there is some work to do, but a 3-3 finish, with a win over Oregon State and two wins over Oregon would not only likely be enough to secure at least a share of the Big Ten title, but enough to push Iowa into the top 60 in the RPI. A couple of wins at the Big Ten Tournament would elevate them into the mid-50’s, which would be enough for a spot in a regional.

As for his comment about Washington, he’s right to a point. The Huskies have gone from 110 in RPI a few weeks ago to 71, with series wins over Illinois, Northwestern and Iowa. They still have three games at Oregon and three games at home against USC, so there is opportunity there for Washington to get into at-large territory. That being said, if Iowa got their RPI into the 55-60 range, to me, it would be more likely that the Big Ten would get a fifth bid, rather than the Hawkeyes getting left out.

This weekend, Hawkeye fans should be rooting for two things. One, for the Illini to steal a win in Champaign against the Bruins to help the cause and two, for Iowa to get one from the Beavers in Des Moines. A series win, while it’s not something I’d bet on, is not impossible and that would change Iowa’s tournament standing substantially.