Bracketology: Where Iowa Softball stands heading into the Big Ten Tournament

It’s been a topsy turvy season for the Iowa Softball program, but the off the field news items that have dominated the headlines have not kept the Hawkeyes from putting together their best season since they last made the NCAA Tournament in 2009.

Prior to the season, it was announced that head coach Renee Gillispie would miss the season due to health concerns. Then, just a couple of weeks into the season, interim head coach Brian Levin unexpectedly left the program, leaving assistant coach Karl Gollan as the one in charge. Despite all of the change, the Hawkeyes have been able to handle the adversity and put themselves in a position where they are still playing for a potential at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament.

“Iowa has had a very successful season, especially given the turmoil in the coaching situation this year. Going from 18-28 to 35-17 is awesome to see for a pretty young team,” Brady Vernon of On3’s Baseball America told HawkeyeReport. “Jalen Adams is one of the most underrated arms in the nation. Soo-Jin Berry and Jena Young have developed into key pieces in the lineup, which the coaching staff foresaw this fall. There is plenty to build on if the next head coach can retain the talent on the roster.”

Entering this week’s Big Ten Tournament, Iowa owns a 35-17 overall record, including a 15-7 mark in Big Ten play, which is their best conference record since 2012 (16-8). They won 11 of their final 12 games in conference play and earned the six seed at the Big Ten Tournament in West Lafayette. Their opening round opponent, Penn State, is a team they swept in Iowa City earlier in the year.

A look at the Hawkeyes NCAA Tournament resume

***This graphic is purely to show all games played. The RPI is correct, but the Quads are not***

The Hawkeyes have put together a pretty decent resume, which is why they are very much in consideration for a spot in a regional. They have racked up a 14-15 record against RPI top 100 opponents, including major wins over #8 UCLA and #21 Nebraska. Iowa will also hang their hat on a two-game sweep of Indiana, a pair of single wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Iowa State, plus whatever they can add at the Big Ten Tournament.

They really did a pretty good job of taking care of business in games they should win, as they have a 29-2 mark against RPI 70+ opponents. The two losses that will haunt them if they narrowly miss the field are a 10-inning, 2-1 loss to RPI 143 Illinois State and a 4-2 loss at RPI 140 Michigan State, where they gave up three runs in the bottom of the seventh.

What Softball America is projecting?

First Four Out – The Hawkeyes, along with BYU, Coastal Carolina and Michigan are amongst the ‘First Four Out’ of the tournament field the last projection by Brady Vernon. However, the Big Ten Tournament figures to play a massive role in how the bubble shakes out, with two teams in the ‘Last Four In’ (Northwestern, Indiana), two teams in the ‘First Four Out’ (Iowa, Michigan) and one team in the ‘Next Four Out’ (Wisconsin).

What do the Hawkeyes need to do to get an at-large bid?

There are multiple answers to this question, but it depends on how safe the Hawkeyes want to be going into Selection Sunday. Each win that they can secure during the Big Ten Tournament will increase their odds of being selected to the field of 64.

“Iowa likely has to reach the Big Ten championship game to feel good about making it as an at-large bid. In the past three seasons, the lowest RPI to make the NCAA Tournament was 45. Iowa checked in at 48 in the latest update on Monday morning.”

So, what is the Hawkeyes path at the Big Ten Tournament? As previously mentioned, Iowa will open as the six seed, facing off against 11 seed Penn State. The Lady Lions are 24-26 this season and were swept by the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. Coach Gollan’s squad will be the favorite to advance, and while PSU’s RPI is not bad, sitting in 86th, it likely won’t be big enough boost to push Iowa into the RPI top 45. That being said, it would still give them a shot if it was their lone win of the tournament.

Up next would be a quarterfinal matchup against #21 Nebraska, which would be one that could vault Iowa into an at-large position if they were able to pull the upset. The Huskers are 38-12 this season and are the three seed in the tournament. Iowa dropped two of three to Nebraska in Iowa City earlier in the year, but did steal the final game of the series.

“If Iowa were to beat Penn State and find a way to beat Nebraska again, the Hawkeyes would be in a good spot because they’d have three quad-one wins, which is better than a few other bubble teams at the moment.,” said Vernon.

If the Hawkeyes were able to advance past the Huskers and get to the tournament semifinals, a matchup against #8 UCLA would be the likely draw. A win there and Iowa would nearly be a lock to hear their names called on Selection Sunday.

Big Ten Tournament Bracket