Breaking down the Big Ten Baseball regular season title scenarios

Nearly ten weeks ago, the first results of the new look Big Ten Baseball conference went final. Some of the highlights? Iowa lost at Rutgers; UCLA scored six in the top of the tenth to beat Maryland and Oregon dominated USC in Los Angeles. Since then, over 200 games have been played to see who will not only win the Big Ten, but who will get an all-important top four seed at the Big Ten Tournament and who will make the newly formatted 12-team tournament field. All that’s left is one more weekend and 24 more games before every question is answered.

HawkeyeReport breaks down the three teams that are still mathematically in the race to win a Big Ten regular season title, while also checking in on the race to make the 12-team Big Ten Tournament.

Current Big Ten Standings

The Leader: Iowa Hawkeyes (32-17-1, 21-6)

Most likely clinching scenario: Take 2 of 3 from Oregon, UCLA sweeps Northwestern, Iowa and UCLA share title

Remaining Series: vs Oregon (RPI 19)

Last Big Ten Series: at Washington (L 4-3, L 3-1, W 8-0)

One slip up can be can the difference between a regular season title and second place. Just ask Oregon, they’re in a similar boat coming into this week. The Hawkeyes won their first eight Big Ten series, including four sweeps for their best start to conference play in program history. However, they dropped two of three to Washington, combining for just four runs in the two losses. Now, their lead atop the standings is just a single game heading into the final weekend.

The Hawkeyes still control their own destiny, hosting #5 Oregon at Duane Banks Field to close out the regular season. A series sweep, although it’s unlikely, would give Iowa the outright title, but two of three will clinch a share of the title even if UCLA sweeps their final series. Needing a series win, Thursday night’s series opener will be crucial, and Cade Obermueller will need to be at, or near his best, facing Ducks ace Grayson Grinsell who is also a sure fire First Team All-Big Ten candidate.

For Iowa, a Big Ten championship in any form, outright or share, might be a must for their NCAA Tournament hopes. With an RPI in the 60’s, a series loss to the Ducks and no Big Ten title will probably mean that the Hawkeyes will have to win the Big Ten Tournament to get into the field of 64.

The New Favorite?: UCLA Bruins (37-14, 20-7)

Most likely clinching scenario: Sweep Northwestern, Iowa loses series to Oregon, Bruins win the outright title

Remaining Series: vs Northwestern (RPI 143)

Last Big Ten Series: at Illinois (W 10-9, W 9-1, W 8-4)

The Bruins may very well end up being the Big Ten regular season champions come Saturday afternoon, but they nearly have lost it on several occasions over the last three weeks. They needed a two-run bottom of the ninth that included two Penn State errors to win the opener of that series, while if it wasn’t for a strikeout with the bases loaded in the ninth inning of a 7-6 game, the Bruins may have been swept by USC. This past weekend UCLA swept Illinois but needed two runs on an Illinois error in the 8th and two runs in the ninth, including a steal of home by Payton Brennan to pull out the 10-9 win in the series opener.

That’s not to say that UCLA is lucky. Just four of their 20 Big Ten wins have come back two runs or less, but three of those four have been in the last three weeks.

Now, the Bruins may very well be the favorite going into the final weekend of the season. They are set to host 13th place Northwestern and while the ‘Cats will be scratching and clawing to make the Big Ten Tournament, they have won just one of their last six series and that was this past weekend against Ohio State. If UCLA sweeps Northwestern, they can clinch a share of the title with one Iowa loss to Oregon, but even two of three could clinch a share if Iowa drops two of three to Oregon.

The Longshot: Oregon Ducks (38-13, 19-8)

Most likely clinching scenario: Oregon sweeps Iowa, UCLA loses series to Northwestern, Ducks share title with UCLA

Remaining Series: at Iowa (RPI 67)

Last Big Ten Series: vs Washington (W 5-0, W 6-4, W 5-3)

The Ducks are playing as well as anyone in the country right now and the polls reflect that, with Oregon sitting at #5 in the latest D1Baseball Top 25. They are 14-3 in their last 17 games, including a four-game sweep of #7 Oregon State, a series win over #14 UCLA, and a series sweep of Washington. Still, Oregon enters this week needing a miracle to win the Big Ten regular season title. Why? Well, it comes down to the fact that the Ducks have a series loss to Ohio State who is just 4-23 in Big Ten play. Had they swept, like Iowa did when they faced OSU, they would be tied for first place with the Hawkeyes.

Oregon finishes the regular season with a trip to Iowa City, and it has to be a sweep for any chance, but that scenario also includes UCLA dropping two of three to Northwestern. Despite that, the Ducks will enter the Big Ten Tournament playing as well, or better than anyone else and I would expect many to pick them to take home the trophy in their first ever appearance.

Updating the race for the final spots at the Big Ten Tournament

The new 12-team Big Ten Tournament format has led to a pretty intriguing race down the stretch this season, with only two teams mathematically eliminated going into the final weekend. That being said, this feels like it’s going to come down to Michigan State and Northwestern.

Illinois has quickly fallen, losing their last six games, but they close the season with last place Ohio State, so they should be able to get a series win to clinch a spot. Michigan State changed their season dramatically this past weekend, taking two of three on the road at USC, which gives them a chance to clinch a spot with a series win at home against Minnesota. That means the odd one out might be end up being Northwestern. Although the Wildcats started 7-6 in Big Ten play, they are just 5-9 since and finish with UCLA on the road, which could end in a sweep. As for Maryland, they have stuck around, winning five of their last six, but even a series win against Rutgers might not be enough if MSU and Illinois take care of business.

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The Big Ten Tournament gets underway on May 20th at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, with the first day of pool play games. All games will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.