Four numbers to know ahead of Iowa-Illinois WBB

The Iowa women’s basketball team (12-3, 2-2) is back on the road this week, traveling to Champaign on Thursday for a matchup against rival Illinois (11-4, 1-3). It will be the 82nd all-time meeting between the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini, with Iowa leading the series 61-20. The Hawkeyes have won 12 of the last 15 meetings going back to 2014, but did lose last time they visited the State Farm Center. Head coach Shauna Green and the Illini enter the contest with an 11-4 overall record, including a 1-3 mark in Big Ten play.

HawkeyeReport takes a look at some important numbers to know going into Thursday’s matchup between the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini.

98.43 – Illinois points per 100 possessions allowed against top 50 offenses

The statistics suggest that the Illini are good defensive team, as they rank 68th in points per 100 possessions allowed (84.1) and 69th in points per game allowed (59.6). However, those stats have been propped up by the fact that Illinois has played nine teams ranked 147th or lower in offensive efficiency.

Illinois has struggled mightily against tougher competition, allowing 98.43 points per 100 possessions in six games against teams ranked in the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Those opponents (Florida State, Kentucky, Ohio State, Minnesota Oregon and Washington) have shot 43.2% (171/396) from the floor and 48.1% (136/283) from two-point range. In those six games, the Illini have just a 2-4 record and are allowing 74.0 points per game in those matchups.

17.8% – Illinois defensive turnover rate in Big Ten play

There’s still a long way to go, but in four games against Big Ten opponents, Illinois has really struggled to force turnovers on the defensive end. Their 17.8% defensive turnover rate in conference games ranks 15th-best in the conference, while their 13 steals (3.25 per gm) rank dead last. Overall, they have forced just 52 turnovers in four games (13.0 per gm). The Illini experienced the same struggles last season when they went just 8-10 in Big Ten play and missed the NCAA Tournament.

22.4 – Points per game for the injured Makira Cook and Gretchen Dolan

The Illini have been played short-handed for the last month, with star guard Makira Cook missing the last six games, while sophomore guard Gretchen Dolan has missed seven of the last eight games. Those two have combined to average 22.4 points per game for Illinois over eight games played. Neither are currently expected to suit up against the Hawkeyes on Thursday night.

Fifth-year senior Makira Cook was a Second Team All-Big Ten selection and WBIT Most Outstanding Player last season, averaging 16.4 points per game, including nine games with 20+ points. Notably, Cook finished with a team-high 26 points in the Illini’s upset win over Iowa last time the Hawkeyes traveled to Champaign back in 2023. As for Dolan, she was a Big Ten All-Freshman pick last season and has scored in double figures in four of eight games played this season. Due to the injuries, Illinois played just seven total players in their latest game against Minnesota.

25.4% and 21.0% – Iowa offensive and defensive turnover rate last nine games

Turnovers were not a concern for the Hawkeyes early in the season, as they ranked 32nd in the country in turnover rate (18.6%) through six games. They began giving it away down at the Cancun Challenge with Lucy Olsen out of the lineup, and ever since, it has been a major issue.

Over the past nine games, Iowa ranks 260th in the country in offensive turnover rate (25.4%), averaging 18.7 turnovers per game, including five games with 20+ giveaways. In their three losses, the Hawkeyes have coughed the ball up a total of 74 times (24.7).

“I just need to do a little better job of putting them under a little bit more duress in practice,” said Jan Jensen on the turnover problems. “It’s a big concern because if you even took five turnovers off of Tennessee, we might have won. If you take five off Michigan State, pretty sure we win that.”

As improved as Iowa’s defense has been compared to year’s past, they are not forcing turnovers at a high enough rate to offset the offensive mishaps. The Hawkeyes rank 264th in defensive turnover rate (21.0%) over that same nine-game stretch, forcing just 15.3 per game on average.

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Thursday’s matchup between the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini at the State Farm Center in Champaign is set to tipoff at 6:00pm CT on BTN+. Iowa returns to Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Sunday to face the Indiana Hoosiers.