Four numbers to know ahead of Iowa-Nebraska WBB

The Iowa women’s basketball team (12-5, 2-4) is in a tough spot, facing what could be considered a must-win against rival Nebraska (13-4, 4-2) on Thursday night. It will be the 41st all-time meeting between the two programs, with Iowa leading the series 24-16. The Hawkeyes have dominated as of late, winning 12 of the last 14 since 2019 and have won six straight in Iowa City. Head coach Amy Williams and her team will enter the game with a 13-4 overall record, including a 4-2 mark in Big Ten play. The Huskers defeated Rutgers 69-62 in Piscataway on Sunday.

HawkeyeReport takes a look at some important numbers to know going into Thursday’s matchup between the Hawkeyes and Huskers.

133 and 34.8% – Nebraska made three-pointers and three-point percentage

The Huskers aren’t afraid to shoot the three ball, ranking second in the Big Ten in three-point attempt rate (37.0%), and they’re pretty successful when they do it. Nebraska leads the conference in made three-pointers with 133, while they are one of five Big Ten teams to have three players with 20+ made threes.

Logan Nissley (25), Britt Prince (21) and Callin Hake (20) make out that trio, with Florida transfer Alberte Rimdal (15) not far behind. As a team, the Huskers are shooting 34.8% from behind the arc, which is good for second-best in the Big Ten behind only Washington (35.9%). Although their team-leader Nissley is just 17th in the conference in made threes, the Huskers can get their three-point shooting from all positions, as every single player in their 10-player rotation has made at least five triples.

Nebraska averages 7.8 made three-pointers per game, which easily outpaces Iowa, who is averaging just 5.7 made threes over the last three games.

104.58 – Nebraska defensive points per 100 possessions vs top 50 in offensive efficiency

The Huskers 13-4 record looks a bit better than it is, as they are 11-0 against Q3/4 teams and just 2-4 against the NET top 50. Their defense has really struggled when facing tougher competition, allowing 104.58 points per 100 possessions in those games against the NET top 50. Nebraska’s 49.5% effective field goal percentage allowed in Q1/2 games ranks 14th in the Big Ten ahead of only Purdue, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin. Those four teams are a combined 1-23 in such games.

Iowa’s offense has struggled mightily over their three-game losing streak, averaging 63.3 points and 17.7 turnovers per game, while shooting just 36.9% from the floor. The good news is that Nebraska is the ‘worst’ defense they’ve faced since Penn State (82nd), ranking 55th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while their previous three opponents have ranked 48th or higher.

Michigan State ranks similarly to Iowa in offensive efficiency (four spots lower) and although in a losing effort, the Spartans put up 80 points in Lincoln on January 8th. They shot 29 of 65 (44.6%) from the floor and 8 of 26 (30.8%) from three-point range.

87.38 and 108.16 – Iowa points per 100 possessions (losses vs wins)

There’s a very, very clear difference between Iowa’s wins and losses. Offensive performance. In the Hawkeyes 12 wins, they are averaging 108.16 points per 100 possessions, while that number plummets to 87.38 in their five losses. To put that in perspective, their offensive rating in wins would currently rank 23rd in the country, while their offensive rating in losses would rank 223rd. That’s a pretty extraordinary difference. Turnovers have plagued Iowa as well, as they are averaging 21.2 per game in their losses and 14.75 in their wins.

Something is going to have to give for either the Huskers or the Hawkeyes in order to get a win. It’s unlikely that Iowa will be able to win without better offense than they’ve shown in their losses, while it’s just as unlikely that Nebraska wins without better defense than they have shown against tougher competition.

16.0 and 9.5 – Alexis Markowski career stats vs Iowa

Senior center Alexis Markowski hasn’t exactly had the All-American caliber season than some thought she might have, but she’s still the top player for the Huskers and has plenty of history of good performances against the Hawkeyes. In three seasons at Nebraska, Markowski has faced Iowa eight times, including twice at the Big Ten Tournament. She’s averaging 16.0 points and 9.5 rebounds in those matchups, while shooting 49.5% from the floor and 54.5% from three-point range. Compared to her career stats, Alexis is +3.5 in scoring average, +0.2 in rebound average, +3.1% in field goal percentage and +17.8% in three-point percentage against Iowa.

Markowski has recorded four double-doubles in her last five games against Iowa, including putting up 23 points and 13 rebounds in the Big Ten Tournament Championship game last season. Her most notable performance in Iowa City came her freshman year, when she put up 27 points on 10/12 shooting, including six made threes in a 93-83 defeat. She has scored in double figures in seven of eight games against Iowa.