How Iowa's stat profile has performed in recent NCAA Tournaments

The Iowa Women’s Basketball team has earned a No. 6 in the NCAA Tournament, which extends their streak of nine consecutive tournament appearances with a 6-seed or better. It’s not the first rodeo for head coach Jan Jensen, as she’s been on the sidelines for the Hawkeyes last 18 trips to the tournament. During her tenure at Iowa, she’s guided the Hawkeyes to 23 NCAAT victories, though she’ll be seeking her first win as head coach against Murray State on Saturday.

“I think we’re one of the hottest teams (in the country),” said Jensen after their Big Ten Tournament loss to Ohio State. “I think we should feel pretty good going into the tournament.”

With all the change that the program endured over the offseason, plus the five-game losing streak they suffered in January, their 22-10 record entering the NCAA Tournament feels like a sizable accomplishment. Now, playing as well as they have all season, advancing to the Sweet Sixteen would solidify this season as a more than successful one.

Although the NCAA Tournament is not played on a computer screen or a sheet of paper, advanced metrics and statistics can give us an idea of how certain teams, historically, may perform in March. Over the past four seasons, 49 of the 64 (76.6%) teams to advance to the Sweet Sixteen have ranked inside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Just 17 teams (26.6%) have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating lower than 25th and only two of them did it with a defense rated lower than 20th. From a metrics standpoint, Iowa’s defensive improvements this season have made them a reasonable candidate to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

Iowa enters this NCAA Tournament ranked in the top 30 (No. 29) in Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency and top 20 (No. 17) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Amongst those 64 previously mentioned teams, this stat profile aligns with 15 that advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, characterized by a sub top 25 offense and a top 20 defense. It is worth noting that during the Hawkeyes 10-3 finish to the season, per Torvik, they ranked 10th in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency, which would give them a much more favorable tournament forecast.

That being said, Iowa is not the only team to have the full season stat profile that they have. Over the last four seasons, there are ten teams that have made the NCAA Tournament with similar stat profiles. Those ten teams have combined for a 15-10 record, including six Sweet Sixteen or better finishes.

Team	Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	Adjusted Defensive Efficiency	Seed	NCAAT Finish
Indiana (’22)	27th	18th	3	Sweet Sixteen
Michigan (’22)	26th	13th	3	Elite Eight
Tennessee (’21)	26th	20th	3	Round of 32
South Dakota (’22)	35th	19th	10	Sweet Sixteen
Texas A&M (’21)	22nd	18th	2	Sweet Sixteen
Oklahoma (’24)	30th	25th	5	Round of 32
Notre Dame (’23)	27th	10th	3	Sweet Sixteen
UCLA (’23)	24th	21st	4	Sweet Sixteen
Gonzaga (’21)	24th	22nd	5	Round of 64
NC State (’23)	32nd	24th	7	Round of 64

The first thing that stands out when looking at these teams that closely align with Iowa is that they have had success, with five Sweet Sixteen appearances and one Elite Eight appearance. Another notable observation is that none of these ten teams were six seeds like Iowa is, and only two were seeded lower than five. It’s understandable why the Hawkeyes rank lower compared to similar teams from the past, with their 1-7 record in games decided by five points or less—or in overtime.

Although Iowa will face a tougher path than most of the teams listed above, having to go through 3 seed Oklahoma in Norman, they are also the most balanced and dangerous 6 seed, per Torvik metrics, since 2021, with Oregon (14 Off, 17 Def) and Michigan (13 Off, 23 Def), both advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.

What makes the Hawkeyes so dangerous—and why the chart above is so significant—is their play down the stretch heading into the NCAA Tournament. Not only does Iowa’s full season stat profile fit 15 of the last 64 (23.4%) Sweet Sixteen participants, but they’ve played well above their seed line over the last two months. As previously mentioned, since they started their run of ten wins in 13 games, dating back to January 22nd, Iowa ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency. Although it’s a 13-game sample and not a full season, that profile resembles a 3-4 seed, rather than a 6 seed.

The combination of the success of teams similar to Iowa over the last four seasons and the way that the Hawkeyes have played over the last two months makes them a real threat to potentially upset Oklahoma and advance to the Sweet Sixteen. That being said, the Sooners (and Racers) are both more than capable of knocking off Iowa.

However, numbers don’t lie: Iowa’s metrics suggest they’re more than just a 6 seed, but their path to the Sweet Sixteen will be anything but easy. They’ll have to do it differently than the teams listed above, including taking down a host on their home floor. If their play down the final stretch of the season is any indication, this team could make a push for a spot in the Sweet Sixteen, despite being placed in the Norman Regional.