Iowa Baseball: Big Ten Baseball Tournament Preview

It is postseason time for the Iowa Baseball team. The Hawkeyes will head off to Omaha for the Big Ten Tournament this week, which has been yearly occurence under head coach Rick Heller. Prior to his arrival, Iowa had qualified for the tournament just once in six seasons, but they are eight for eight under Heller, including winning the tournament title in 2017.

This season, the Hawkeyes will be looking for some of that 2017 magic, as they need to win the whole thing Omaha to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Iowa finished the regular season with a 31-21 overall record and finished in a tie fourth in the Big Ten at 14-10. The positive news, if you like that sort of thing, is that when Iowa won the tournament in 2017, they were the #5 seed, which is where they are this year.

1. The opening matchup – Michigan Wolverines

If you are wondering if this matchup seems familiar, it’s because it is. The Hawkeyes have faced Michigan seven times over the last two years, including four times in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines enter the tournament with 30-26 overall record and tied with Iowa for fourth place in the standings at 14-10. Michigan won two out of three in Iowa City earlier in the year, with a two-game Saturday sweep.

Their offense ranks 12th in the Big Ten in batting average, 9th in runs scored, 11th in hits and 12th in on-base percentage, while they have struck out the most of any team in the conference. Their pitching staff ranks 8th in ERA, 11th in strikeouts, 12th in walks, 13th in hits allowed. Despite the underwhelming numbers, they have some names to know.

OF Stephen Hrustich – The Northwestern transfer has been the top hitter for the Wolverines this season, posting numbers amongst the best in the Big Ten. He is batting .301, including a .451 on-base percentage, including 59 hits, 14 doubles, 15 home runs and 43 RBI’s. Not only is he tied for fifth in the conference in home runs, he is second in walks drawn. He has 15 multi-hit games and has a hit in 15 of the last 18 games.

1B Mitch Voit – Right alongside Hrustich, Mitch Voit is one of the best bats in the Michigan lineup. He is batting .280, with a .360 on-base percentage, including 61 hits, 20 doubles, 11 home runs and 40 RBI’s. His 32 extra base hits leads the Big Ten. Voit has 17 multi-hit games this season.

DH Collin Priest – As a true freshman, Collin Priest has shown a lot of potential for the years to come. He is batting .284, with a .442 on-base percentage, including nine doubles, 11 home runs and 30 RBI’s. Priest has just nine multi-hit games, but has racked up 13 hits over the last eight games.

Projected Pitching Matchup – RHP Brody Brecht vs RHP Kurt Barr

Brody Brecht will be making the start as the Hawkeyes ace on Tuesday and his last month in Big Ten play was as good as he’s been during his time at Iowa. Over his four starts in Big Ten play, Brecht allowed just five runs on eight hits over 28.2 innings, including 45 strikeouts to 11 walks. Brody struggled in his abbreviated start against FIU, walking four, but Rick Heller said he didn’t put a lot of stock into a 37-pitch outing and said he expects him to be ready for Wednesday’s start.

“I don’t put too much stock into it. I feel like he’ll be ready to go when he gets the ball next week…He’ll want to ammend this one.”

As for Michigan, they will likely be going with righthander Kurt Barr. He has appeared in 19 games, including nine starts this season and has been the series opening starter each of the last two weeks. Barr has a 3.52 ERA over 79.1 innings, including 50 strikeouts and 37 walks. Opponents are batting .222 against him and are averaging just 0.79 hits per inning. Last time out against Indiana, Barr allowed one run on two hits over 5.2 innings, including one strikeout to one walk.

2. Why game one against Michigan could make or break Iowa’s chances in more ways than one

It’s impossible to overstate how important the first game of the tournament is for all eight teams. The last 15 Big Ten Tournament champions won the first game of the week, while seven of the last eight champions have not lost a game en route to the tournament title.

With the struggles that the Hawkeyes have had with their pitching staff, losing to Michigan is not an option and getting a good start out of Brody Brecht is a must. If Brecht can get deep into the game with a 6-7 inning start, that will keep the Iowa bullpen mostly fresh going into game two. Best case scenario, Jack Young closes out game one, which would give Rick Heller several different options out of the bullpen going into game two.

It is possible that the Hawkeyes could win the tournament opener and still be in a tough position. If Brody struggles with his control and runs his pitch count up early against Michigan, Coach Heller will be forced to go with several arms out of the bullpen. It’s going to take some special performances from pitchers that have had uneven years if the Hawkeyes want to make a run. However, limiting how deep Heller has to dig into the bullpen with good starts, beginning with Brody on Wednesday will give them a better shot at a deep run.

3. How can the Hawkeyes win their half of the bracket?

It will come down to pitching for the Hawkeyes. Brody Brecht and Cade Obermueller are both capable of getting deep into games and getting Iowa out to a 2-0 start. Both of them have shown signs of being ready for the postseason lately.

The biggest key will be limiting walks and keeping their pitch count down, so they can get deeper into the game. Over his last four Big Ten starts, Brody Brecht had a 4.09 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has thrown nearly 62% of his pitches for strikes. Opponents are batting just .167 against Brecht and are averaging 0.59 hits per inning this season, it’s hard to score runs on him when he cuts down on the free bases.

As for Cade Obermueller, he missed back-to-back starts due to a rib injury and then lasted just 1.2 innings against Illinois in his first start back. On Friday against Florida International, Obermueller looked back to normal. He completed 5.0 scoreless innings, including seven strikeouts to just one walk and averaged just 13.6 pitches per inning, which is a season-best for him.

“I knew I was going to come out and be like this today. I felt like I was in a good place to pick back up where I left off against Rutgers,” said Obermueller. “Today was a good showing and I feel like I’m in my stride right now and it’s a good place to be going into the postseason.”

The Hawkeyes will have to be good in the other three phases, including offense, bullpen and defense, but Brecht and Obermueller are capable of beating any team in the Big Ten.

4. A look at Illinois and Penn State

The other matchup in the Hawkeyes group of four teams is between Illinois and Penn State. The Illini won the Big Ten regular season title and enter the tournament with a 33-17 overall record. As for the Nittany Lions, they won five of their last six conference games, including a sweep of Maryland to earn the #8 seed in the tournament.

Offensively, Illinois is the best in the Big Ten and the stats back that up. They rank 1st in home runs, 1st in slugging percentage, 2nd in on-base percentage, 4th in runs, 4th in hits and 4th in batting average. Five different players have hit 10+ home runs, including a Big Ten leading 18 from Ryan Moerman. It is always interesting to see how home run dependent teams play in Omaha, as Charles Schwab Field has tendency to play big.

The pitching for the Illini has been middle of the pack in the Big Ten, ranking 4th in walks, 7th in ERA and 7th in strikeouts, but they do rank 2nd in hits allowed. They have gotten solid years out of Jack Crowder and Cooper Omans, but the bullpen does not have a pitcher with a below 4.00 ERA that has made more than 10 appearances. If the Illinois offense has any hiccups in a bigger stadium, the pitching staff will have to hold things down.

As for Penn State, offensively, they rank 2nd in batting average, 4th in on-base percentage, 6th in runs, 7th in home runs and 9th in hits. JT Marr leads the way batting .419, with 49 RBI’s, while Adam Cecere, Grant Norris and Bryce Molinaro have combined for 39 home runs. The downfall for the Nittany Lions has been their pitching staff. They rank near the bottom of the conference in hits allowed (7th), runs allowed (10th), walks (10th), ERA (12th) and strikeouts (12th).

5. Nebraska is the favorite in the other half of the bracket

The Huskers were in it until the very final day of the regular season for the Big Ten title, but came up just short. They will be the #2 seed in the tournament and are the obvious favorite to make it to the championship game out of their half of the bracket.

Although the Huskers did not face Purdue in the regular season, they won four of their six games against Ohio State and Indiana, outscoring them 19-6 in the four wins. Their pitching staff is their strength and in a stadium that tends to have less scoring, that is a huge key. Nebraska ranks 1st in the Big Ten in ERA, fewest walks and 4th in strikeouts.