Iowa Baseball: Big Ten Baseball Tournament Preview

It is postseason time for the Iowa Baseball team. The Hawkeyes will head off to Omaha for the Big Ten Tournament this week, which has been yearly occurrence under head coach Rick Heller. Prior to his arrival, Iowa had qualified for the tournament just once in six seasons, but they are nine for nine under Heller, including winning the tournament title in 2017.

What looked like a promising season, with hopes of the programs first Big Ten regular season title since 1990 has taken a turn as of late, with the Hawkeyes going 1-8-1 in their final ten games of the season. Iowa enters the Big Ten Tournament with a 32-20-1 overall record, while their 21-9 record in conference play earned them a three seed and a spot in Pool C. Rick Heller’s squad will be hoping to channel some of that 2017 magic and make a run this week in Omaha.

Pool C – Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers

Odds to advance (per Warren Nolan): Iowa 50.4%, Indiana 24.8%, Rutgers 24.8%

Despite the downhill finish to the regular season, the Hawkeyes did plenty of work through the early and middle parts of Big Ten play to earn a top four seed, which puts them in a position of advantage. They are in a pool with two teams they have already faced this season, going 5-1 against the Hoosiers and Scarlet Knights, with the lone loss coming in their Big Ten opener in Piscataway. Although the offense has cooled off, averaging just 4.0 runs per game over their last ten, the bigger issue has been the pitching staff and free bases. They are allowing 7.69 hits per nine innings over their last ten games, but have compounded it greatly, giving up 6.88 free bases per nine innings. That has to improve if they want any shot this week.

Joining the Hawkeyes in Pool C are a couple of teams that are playing some of their best baseball at the right time. Indiana has won eight of their last ten since getting swept by Iowa, while Rutgers enters the tournament having won nine of their last 12 games. The Hoosiers pitching staff has struggled this season, ranking tenth in the Big Ten in ERA (5.74), but they are still a dangerous offensive club, ranking near or at the top of the conference in several categories. As for the Scarlet Knights, they found some offense themselves, averaging 10.0 runs per game over their last 15 games.

Pool B – UCLA, Michigan, Illinois

Odds to advance (per Warren Nolan): UCLA 58.0%, Michigan 24.4%, Illinois 17.6%

The Bruins shared the Big Ten title with Oregon and will enter the tournament, along with the Ducks, as one of the favorites to win it. They did get tripped up losing series on the road against Oregon and USC, but were 20-4 against the rest of the conference, which bodes well for the pool play portion of the tournament. During Big Ten play, UCLA ranked second in average (.301), second in hits (307) and third in on-base percentage (.403), but were sixth in team ERA (5.14), which is the lowest of any of the top five seeds.

Looking at the rest of Pool B, the Bruins get two teams that come trending in the wrong direction, starting with the seven seed Michigan. The Wolverines, at one point, were in the conversation for a top four seed, but lost consecutive series to end the season. They have a decent pitching staff, ranking sixth in the conference in ERA (4.91), but 12th in walks per nine innings (4.9). Offensively, they are solid, but not great, ranking sixth in average (.290) and eighth in on-base percentage (.385).

As for Illinois, they may have the worst trend of any team in the 12-team field, winning just two of their final ten Big Ten games, with both wins coming against last place Ohio State. They’re a decent offensive club, but rank 14th in the conference with a 6.49 team ERA, giving up 9.8 runs per game during that 2-8 stretch to end the conference season.

Pool A – Oregon, Nebraska, Michigan State

Odds to advance (per Warren Nolan): Oregon 62.3%, Nebraska 22.6%, Michigan State 15.1%

It’s going to be hard to beat Oregon, as they enter the tournament playing as well as any team in the country, winning 17 of their last 20 games, including sweeps of Oregon State, Iowa and Washington, as well as a series win over UCLA. Despite getting nothing from Mason Neville, the Ducks put up 32 runs, including 11 home runs in their sweep of Iowa, giving them 107 home runs on the season. They lead the Big Ten in ERA (4.00), while they are in the top three in most offensive categories. If Oregon goes on to win the Big Ten Tournament, they will nearly be a lock for a national seed at the NCAA Tournament.

Rounding out Pool A are Nebraska and Michigan State. The Huskers had the most disappointing season in the conference going from preseason ranked to 28-27 overall, but they are still the reigning champions. Their offense has been underwhelming, ranking 11th in the conference in average (.277) and 13th in on-base percentage (.372), while the pitching staff has been average (5.20) after losing Mason McConnaughey early in the year. As for the Spartans, they were competitive against the Ducks, taking one of three in East Lansing a couple weeks back, but will have to throw Big Ten Pitcher of the Year candidate Joseph Dzierwa against the Huskers to make sure the game against Oregon matters.

Pool D – USC, Washington, Penn State

Odds to advance (per Warren Nolan): USC 54.0%, Washington 24.8%, Penn State 21.2%

Easily the most intriguing pool in the tournament, USC grabbed a critical win over Washington in the regular season finale to secure the four seed. That gives them the crucial tiebreaker in the even that all three teams tie with a 1-1 record. The Trojans should be pretty secure for the NCAA Tournament with an RPI in the low 40’s and a 34-20 record, but they’ll be looking to lock up an at-large bid with a couple of wins. They haven’t been talked about a ton this year, but USC ranks first in the Big Ten in walks per nine innings (3.8), fourth in team ERA (.461) and fourth in batting average (.293).

USC’s path to the semifinals will not be easy, with Washington and Penn State rounding out Pool D. Although the Huskies were unable to upend the Trojans for a top seed, they still took two of three in the series. In a park that plays large, with temperatures expected to be in the mid 60’s during pool play, which could favor Washington’s grind it out style of play. They ranked last in runs scored in Big Ten play but came within a game of a top four seed because their pitching staff posted a 4.26 conference ERA. As for the Nittany Lions, they fell short of preseason expectations going 15-15 in Big Ten play but have a couple of powerful bats in the lineup, with five guys tallying 10+ home runs. Their pitching has been the drawback, ranking 13th in the conference in ERA (6.14).