Iowa Baseball MLB Draft Preview
It is officially draft season in the baseball world. While MLB teams finish up the first half of the season and players get set for the All-Star break, several Hawkeye players are waiting to hear their names called in the upcoming MLB Draft. Keaton Anthony and Ty Langenberg figure to be the top two names called for Iowa, but Will Christophersen and Brennen Dorighi will also be picked over the three day draft.
MLB Draft Schedule
Sunday – 6:00pm on ESPN – Rounds 1-2
Monday – 1:00pm on MLB.com – Rounds 3-10
Tuesday – 1:00pm on MLB.com – Rounds 11-20
DH/1B Keaton Anthony
ProspectLive Ranking: #271 overall – #16 First Baseman
Projection: Day 2: Rounds 4-7
Keaton Anthony had a chance to go in last years MLB Draft. He was offered by teams in the 7th round last year, but opted to return for his sophomore season with the Hawkeyes. In 43 starts, Keaton was batting .389 with a .505 batting average and an NCAA leading 22 doubles. Then came the gambling situation that forced him to miss the last 18 games of the season, including Iowa’s regional appearance. Maybe that scares some teams away, but the product on the field is hard to ignore.
“The hit tool here is real, and so is the power. There’s a chance for an above average bat at the next level when all is said and done,” said Joe Doyle of Future Stars Series Plus. “He’s likely a first baseman at the next level where a bit more pressure may be placed on the bat. Still, it’s hard to ignore the gaudy offensive outputs he’s put together.”
Over 96 games the last two seasons, Anthony combined 44 doubles, 23 home runs and 93 RBI’s. He did play a few less games this season, but there were improvements in several categories. His slugging percentage (+0.23), on-base percentage (+0.50), batting average (+0.28), BABIP (+0.18) and strikeout rate (-5.3%) all saw positive jumps.
Despite being a power bat, Keaton is no relegated to the pull side like you see with some big hitters. He will routinely put a ball in the right-center gap or send one over the right field wall and that is what makes him a complete hitter.
The pick value between the fourth and seventh rounds is pretty large. The first pick in the fourth round (#102) goes for $660,000, while the final pick in the seventh round (#224) goes for $221,330. Keaton is expected to go somewhere in that area. If he does, he would be the sixth Hawkeye to get drafted inside the top ten rounds over the last five years.
RHP Ty Langenberg
ProspectLive Ranking: #192 overall – #70 RHP
Projection: Day 2: Rounds 7-10
Ty Langenberg was quite the relevation for the Hawkeyes in 2022, when he burst onto the scene as a consistent Sunday starter with a 3.71 ERA and a 7-2 record. It allowed him to earn presason Big Ten Pitcher of the Year honors.
Ty didn’t quite have the season he was hoping for, but had a strong finish, with four of his last six starts going 6.0+ innings. The one stat that stands out is 143 hits allowed over 140.0 innings the last two years, including a .361 opponent average on balls in play in 2023. Refining his pitch arsenal in an MLB farm system should lead to some improvement in that area, but the one thing that Ty has always done well, is limiting free bases.
In 39 games and 151.1 innings over three seasons at Iowa, Langenberg gave up just 0.52 free bases per inning and threw 1534 of his 2418 (63.4%) pitches for strikes. That’s a really good number for a large sample size.
“Solidifying a consistent fastball shape that misses bats is the next frontier in Ty’s development and could come quickly in a player development system,” said Doyle. “The changeup is his best secondary with significant arm-side fade and solid depth. It’s been a nightmare on lefty bats. The slider works as a tertiary pitch in the low-80s, up to 85 with short, two-plane shape, exclusively weaponized against right-handed bats.”
Late day two figures to be the area that Langenberg goes off the board. Had he been able to put together a more consistent season similar to his sophomore campaign, we could have been talking about him going a couple rounds higher. The first pick in the seventh round (#195) has a $278,400 slot bonus, while the final pick of the tenth round (#314) gives out $164,400. There is a lot of upside in Ty’s game if he can cut down on the amount of barrels he allows, so it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock to see a team draft him a little higher than my projection.
RHP Will Christophersen
Projection: Late Day 2 or Early Day 3
There is really no argument that Will Christophersen has one of the best sliders in the entire draft class. He dealt with a groin injury during the 2022 season, but 25 strikeouts to six walks over 14.2 innings showed exactly what he was capable of. He skipped summer ball to heal his injury and was able to comeback with a really good 2023 season.
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His 3.55 ERA did not properly tell the story of his season. Will allowed just six runs over 32.1 innings (1.67 ERA), while it was seven runs over 0.2 innings against Western Michigan and North Carolina that inflated things.
The strikeout numbers were still there, as he racked up 59 strikeouts to 16 walks over 33.0 innings. He was seven innings short of the requirement to be ranked on the D1Baseball advanced stats list, but his strikeout rate (41.5%) and K-BB% difference (30.2) would have ranked 2nd and 4th respectively amongst pitchers with 40+ innings.
“It’s one of the better metric breaking balls you can find in this class, sweeping north of 20 inches at times, resting north of 17 inches on average in the mid-80s. It’s comfortably a plus breaking ball, some arguing it’s a 7,” says Doyle. “Likely a money-saver on Day Two or a Day Three pick, Christophersen is going to be a popular name among front office draft analysts.”
It is really hard to nail down when Christophersen will be drafted because it really comes down to how much a team wants him. We saw Dylan Nedved get drafted in ninth round last year and he signed for over $150,000 less than the slot bonus. Having spent five years in college, Will is probably in a similar situation. Had he stayed healthy and had his 2023 campaign a year earlier, things could have been a bit different. Still, his slider will have plenty of teams looking to draft him.
1B/OF Brennen Dorighi
Projection: Day 3: Rounds 11-20
Brennen Dorighi spent four years with the Wofford Terriers and was a First Team All-SoCon selection in 2022, but his breakout year with the Hawkeyes as a grad transfer is what has him in position to get drafted.
He started all 60 games and led the way offensively with a .348 average, .469 on-base percentage, 19 doubles, 15 home runs and 67 RBI’s. His .423 average on balls in play was tops on the team, while his 15.5% walk rate was second-best in the starting lineup. Brennen was also a team captain, despite spending just a semester with the program at the time of the captain selections. That is a testament to his character.
Dorighi has spent the summer playing in the MLB Draft League and has been pretty good over 13 games. Brennen has a .333 batting average and a .491 on-base percentage, including 13 walks to 12 strikeouts. Eight of his 13 (61.5%) hits have gone for extra bases, including seven doubles.
Where Brennen will go in the draft is entirely dependent on how much a team wants him. Dorighi is a professional hitter and was a pleasant surprise with the glove at first base considering he started just four games there while at Wofford. Unfortunately, the fact that he has exhausted his college eligibility will slash the amount of money a team will sign him for. He will likely get drafted during day three of the draft.
