Iowa Baseball Preview - Michigan State

WEEKEND SERIES: VS MICHIGAN STATE (29-16)

The Iowa Baseball team is coming off a series win against the Ohio State Buckeyes. The offense put up 31 runs and 34 hits in the first two games of the weekend, but the bullpen faltered in the series finale, which allowed OSU to grab a win. Up next, is a series with large postseason implications. It’s Michigan State coming to town for a three-game series at Duane Banks Field.

The Spartans come into the weekend with a 28-16 record and sit in a tie for fifth place in the Big Ten standings. Up until this week, Michigan State had been in the thick of the NCAA Tournament talks, but they were swept last weekend by Illinois, while the pitching staff allowed 34 runs. Still, they have a 10-9 record against Q1/2 teams, including series wins over Indiana State and Rutgers, as well as a pair of midweek wins over Notre Dame. The Spartans defeated Eastern Michigan in extra innings on Wednesday.

“It’s going to be real challenge for our pitching staff with the offense we’re going to face this weekend and their pitching staff is improved and more consistent than it’s been in past years,” said head coach Rick Heller. “We’ve watched enough of their tape when we scout other teams to know that they’re going to be really tough.”

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 8.2 runs (32nd), 9.9 hits (96th), .298 AVG (53rd) MSU: 7.6 runs (61st), 10.8 hits (17th), .312 AVG (16th)

PITCHING: IOWA: 5.0 runs (30th), 7.0 hits (5th), 11.1 SO/9 (5th) MSU: 5.8 runs (87th), 8.7 hits (76th), 7.6 SO/9 (238th)

DEFENSE: IOWA: 36 errors, .978 fielding (41st) MSU: 44 errors, .972 fielding (111th)

PROJECTED PITCHING MATCHUPS

FRIDAY- Soph RHP Marcus Morgan vs Fr LHP Joseph Dzierwa

With the ongoing struggles for Brody Brecht, Marcus Morgan slides up a day to the Friday role for his 11th start of the season. Outside of a bad start in poor weather conditions at Penn State, Marcus has had a decent last month on the mound. If you exclude that outing, he has allowed just four runs over his other four starts this month. Walks have still been an issue, with 14 in those four starts, but his strikeout numbers have continued to rise and he has gotten out of some jams to limit damage. A big opportunity for Marcus to get the Hawkeyes off to a good start on Friday.

The 6’7 true freshman lefthander out of Ohio will be making his 12th start of the season for Michigan State. Dzierwa comes into the weekend with a 5-2 record and a 5.58 ERA over 61.1 innings pitched. He has walked just 17 and owns a 6.3% walk rate, but teams have been able to rack up some hits. Dzierwa has allowed 62 hits, including 28 extra base hits and seven home runs. Last time out against Illinois, he allowed seven runs on six hits over 4.1 innings. The Illini hit two home runs.

SATURDAY- Jr RHP Ty Langenberg vs Fr RHP Nolan Higgins

It seems as though Ty Langenberg has turned a corner for the Hawkeyes. Early in the season, Ty wasn’t able to hit with all of his pitches and teams were able to barrel him up. He allowed 1.39 hits per inning over his first eight appearances, but has cut that down to 0.96 over his last five appearances. Ty has has posted a 3.00 ERA over the last month and has seen his strike thrown rate increase to 60% over that span.

The true freshman Nolan Higgins out of Wixom, Michigan will be making his sixth start of the season for the Spartans. Higgins comes in with a 6.52 ERA over 38.2 innings. He had a six game stretch in the middle of the season where he only allowed five runs over 18.2 innings, but last week was a rough outing. Illinois tagged him for nine earned runs on eight hits and three walks.

SUNDAY- Soph RHP Brody Brecht vs Jr LHP Nick Powers

Maybe a couple extra days of rest and a move to the end of the weekend rotation will be good for Brody Brecht. Ever since his career-high 7.0 inning start against Indiana, Brody hasn’t gotten past 4.1 innings, including two starts that he didn’t reach the third inning. Over his last four starts, he has allowed 15 runs and walked 20 over 11.2 innings. The Hawkeyes need Brody to be good down the stretch and it needs to start on Sunday.

The junior lefthander Nick Powers will be making his ninth start of the season. He has a 5-1 record and a 4.34 ERA over 47.2 innings. Despite being the Sunday arm, Powers has solid numbers. Just 30 of his 143 outs (20.9%) recorded have come via strikeout, which means more balls in play. However, opponents are hitting just .238 on balls in play against him and are mustering just 0.82 hits per inning. The Illini had a really good weekend at the plate and Powers was not an exception last time out. He allowed four runs on four hits, including three home runs over 4.0 innings.

SPARTANS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 1B Brock Vradenburg – What a year Brock Vradenburg has had. He batted just .280 last seaon, but has made a gigantic leap and now leads the Big Ten in at average at .438 with just two weeks to play. He has 78 hits, 19 doubles, 12 home runs and 62 RBI’s, while ranking top five in the conference in eight categories. All of that damage comes with a low 13.8% strikeout rate. Vradenburg is the headliner for a sneaky good Michigan State offense.

2. 2B Trent Farquhar – Vradenburg is the main threat in the MSU lineup, but Trent Farquhar has been a really reliable bat all year. He is batting .364 with a team-leading 41 walks/hbp, which gives him a .473 on-base percentage. His 8.4% strikeout rate is the best on the team. Farquhar has racked up 20 multi-hit games and has 16 doubles.

3. SS Mitch Jebb – Mitch Jebb, along with Farquhar, has been a table setter for the top half of the MSU lineup. He is batting .325 with 12 doubles and a team-leading seven triples. Jebb has just a 9.1% strikeout rate, which means the top two batters in the Spartans lineup strikeout just 9.06% of the time. He also is a threat on the bases with 12 stolen bases.

4. OF Jack Frank – Frank is batting .321 this season and while he leads the team with 44 strikeouts, he has managed to reach base 39 times via walk/hbp. That helps his on-base percentage up to .448 and when he gets on base, he can steal, as he leads the team with 16 stolen bases. Frank has nine doubles to go along with six home runs and is third on the team with 36 RBI’s.

5. C Bryan Broecker – The Spartans catcher is a dangerous one at the plate. He is second on the team in home runs (7) and slugging percentage (.547). He is fifth on the team with a .314 batting average, but is looking to bounce back after a 1/11 weekend at Illinois.

6. RHP Wyatt Rush – The Spartans closer is third in the Big Ten with eight saves this season. Rush owns a 3.71 ERA over 34.0 innings and has appeared in a team-high 20 games this season. He isn’t a huge strikeout arm, but his 4.8% walk rate forces opposing teams to earn their way on base. Opponents are batting .326 on balls in play against him.

7. DH Sam Busch – Busch is seventh on the team in batting average at .282, but still have plenty of pop in his bat. He has seven doubles and seven home runs, while his 37 RBI’s is good for second on the team.

8. RHP Andrew Carson – Carson is the other top arm out that comes out of the MSU bullpen. He leads the team with a 3.30 ERA and has thrown 43.2 innings over 19 appearances. His defense hasn’t helped him, with five unearned runs skewing his runners stranded data. Just 16 of his 67 (23.9%) of his baserunners allowed have scored as earned runs.

MIDWEEK GAME: VS ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (23-21)

This game may bring up nightmares for the Iowa pitching staff. The two teams faced off back on April 18th, but the Hawkeyes gave up 14 free bases and the Flames won 14-3 in seven innings.

UIC has won eight of their last 11 games, including a series win over Bradley and a sweep of Belmont this past weekend. They defeated Purdue in their midweek matchup on Wednesday. The Flames have a three-game series at Illinois State this weekend.

FLAMES PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 3B Charlie Szykowny – The grad transfer out of Wisconsin-Stout is the most dangerous bat in the Flames lineup. So dangerous, that the Hawkeyes elected to intentionally walk him twice in the first meeting. He is batting .343 with a team-leading 14 home runs, 48 RBI’s and 58 hits. Szykowny has put the ball in play in 74.5% of his plate appearances this season.

2. OF Carson Roberts – Roberts is overshadowed because of Szykowny, but he actually leads the team with a .436 on-base percentage and is second on the team in walks drawn. He is batting .310 and is second on the team with 36 RBI’s.

3. OF Rayth Petersen – Petersen was a menace against the Hawkeyes in the first meeting. He had two singles, a walk and hit a two-run home run. On the season, Petersen is batting .281 with 11 doubles and three home runs. He is second on the team with 45 hits.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under at 2.5 wins for the week. Yes, that may feel low, but landing on either side of that number will have big implications. 2-2 and the Hawkeyes will find themselves in the middle of the bubble discussion. 3-1 or 4-0 and they will be in a very comfortable position heading into the final week of the regular season.

Michigan State hasn’t been great the last couple of years, but they have a team that is capable of coming to Iowa City and winning the series. Their top four in the lineup (Farquhar, Jebb, Vradenburg, Frank) is quitely one of the best in the Big Ten. The Spartans don’t have a ton of pitching depth, so the quicker the Hawkeyes can get into the bullpen, the easier the runs should come.

It all starts on the pitching mound. Can the Hawkeyes get solid starts from Brecht, Morgan and Langenberg and then can the bullpen follow with solid outings? Another thing to watch is, does the offense show any drop off with Keaton Anthony out of the lineup? They didn’t against Ohio State.

First pitch for the series opener on Friday is set for 6:05pm, while Saturday’s game will start at 2:05pm. The series finale on Sunday will be Senior Day and will begin with first pitch at 1:05pm. All three games will be streamed on BTN+.