Iowa Baseball Preview: Terre Haute Regional

For the first time in six years, the Iowa Baseball team is headed to the NCAA Tournament and they do it with a bit of momentum on their side. The Hawkeyes traveled to Omaha for last week’s Big Ten Tournament with an at-large berth almost certainly locked up. Still, they got a shot of confidence in a tournament setting, as they won their first three games, before falling to Maryland in the championship game.

“If we play like we can and pound the strike zone like we’ve done here recently, this team can go a long way,” said head coach Rick Heller. “We know that baseball is a funny game and you’ve got to catch some breaks. Sometimes you do and sometimes you don’t, but we will be as prepared as we can be and I think we’ll go down there and give it a good run.”

Now, the stakes ratchet up to another level. Iowa is headed to the Terre Haute Regional hosted by the #14 Indiana State Sycamores. HawkeyeReport has your full preview of the regional, with a look at all three teams that Iowa could face.

FRIDAY vs NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (35-22) – At-large bid

Stats: North Carolina Stats

This is the Tar Heels 35th regional appearance in school history. They own a 114-76 record in tournament games, including a 7-4 record against Big Ten teams.

North Carolina enters the tournament with a 35-22 record and a 12-18 record against tournament teams. They finished fourth in the ACC Coastal Division, but advanced to the ACC Tournament semifinals, where they fell to Clemson. The Heels have one common opponent with Iowa. They defeated Penn State 15-5 back on March 8th.

The Tar Heels will be without ACC Defensive Player of the Year Vance Honeycutt this weekend due to a lower back injury. He made just two errors in 142 chances (.986) this season and is known for his highlight reel home run robberies. At the plate, Honeycutt was batting .257 with 12 home runs and a team-leading 49 walks.

OFFENSE: 7.6 runs (62nd), 10.0 hits (93rd), .285 AVG (119th), .402 OBP (43rd), .480 slugging (73rd)

PITCHING: 5.3 runs (51st), 8.7 hits (67th), 9.0 SO/9 (84th), 4.46 BB/9 (125th), 1.48 WHIP (72nd)

DEFENSE: 51 errors, .974 fielding percentage (78th)

Pitching Matchup- Soph RHP Marcus Morgan vs Jr RHP Jake Knapp

Marcus Morgan gets the nod on Friday to open the regional and it will be the biggest game that the Iowa City native has pitched to this point of his Iowa career. They way Marcus has been pitching over the second half of the season, the opportunity is well deserved. Over his last eight starts, excluding the disaster at Penn State, he has allowed just five runs over 37.0 innings (1.22 ERA) and has allowed just 17 hits. Also noteworthy, for the first time in three weeks, Marcus will be pitching on proper rest, which should give him the chance to be fresher and last later into the game.

The Tar Heels will go with righthander Jake Knapp to make his 16th start of the season. Knapp enters the game with a 4.79 ERA over 62.0 innings of work. It’s important to note he averages just over four innings per start, so UNC will likely be going the bullpen pretty early. Opponents have been able to hit the ball hard off of him, as 28 of his 61 (45.9%) hits allowed have gone for extra bases, including 14 home runs. On paper, that bodes well for an Iowa offense that averages 4.00 extra base hits per nine innings. Last time out against #7 Virginia, Knapp allowed one earned run on five hits over 5.2 innings, including five strikeouts to two walks.

TAR HEELS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. OF Mac Horvath- A Second Team All-ACC selection, there is no doubt that Mac Horvath is the most dangerous hitter in the UNC lineup. He is batting .305, with an impressive 20 doubles, 22 home runs and 62 RBI’s. It’s no surprise that 63.8% of his hits have gone for extra bases, when you see that 58.8% of his balls in play are fly balls. Horvath is second on the team with 47 walks/hbp and leads the team with 24 stolen bases.

2. C Tomas Frick- The Tar Heels batting average leader is hitting .329 with a team-leading 72 hits, 21 doubles and a 12.8% strikeout rate. Frick has blasted 12 home runs and driven in 60 runs. Both of which are good for second on the team. Over his 13 games, he is 24/51 (.471) and now has 24 multi-hit games.

3. 2B Jackson Van De Brake- A Second Team All-ACC selection, Van De Brake is batting .314 with 14 doubles, eight home runs and 47 RBI’s. He is second on the team with 48 walks/hbp drawn this season and leads the team with a .441 on-base percentage. Van De Brake has 20 multi-hit games this season and boasts a .348 average on balls in play.

4. OF Casey Cook- The redshirt freshman outfielder earned ACC All-Freshman honors this season, with a .322 batting average, including 11 doubles and two home runs. Cook has reached base 43 times via walk or hit by pitch, which boosts his him to a .434 on-base percentage, which ranks second on the team. He has 19 multi-hit games this season.

– The Tar Heels have a trio of bullpen arms that head coach Scott Forbes likes to lean on. They have combined for 133.0 innings over 81 appearances. The three have struck out 148 and allowed just 97 hits.

5. RHP Matt Poston- The top arm out of the Heels bullpen, Matt Poston has appeared in a team-leading 30 games and owns a 1.77 ERA over 40.2 innings of work. His 27.2% strikeout rate is the highest on the team and opponents hit just .198 on balls in play. Against ACC competition, Poston was even better, with a 1.19 ERA over 22.2 innings and just a .129 opponent average.

6. LHP Dalton Pence- Pence has appeared in 25 games this season with a 3.67 ERA over 41.2 innings. His 46 strikeouts to just 19 walks gives him the lowest walk rate (10.5%) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.42) of the trio. Interesting note, 47.3% of balls put in play against Pence are fly balls.

7. RHP Kevin Eaise- The final arm in the trio for UNC is Kevin Eaise. He has a 3.38 ERA over 50.2 innings and has appeared in 26 games this season. Eaise has racked up 56 strikeouts to 25 walks and his 1.28 WHIP is second best on the team behind Poston (1.03).

#14 INDIANA STATE SYCAMORES (42-15) – Missouri Valley Auto-bid

Stats: Indiana State Stats

The Sycamores are making their 13th regional appearance, while this is their first ever time hosting. They own a 10-20 record in tournament games, including a 2-1 record against Big Ten teams.

Indiana State enters the tournament with a 42-15 record, including a 28-4 mark against conference opponents. They won the Missouri Valley regular season and tournament titles. ISU has just a 3-9 record against tournament teams, including a 6-2 loss to Iowa in the season opener.

OFFENSE: 6.5 runs (171st), 9.4 hits (166th), .274 AVG (182nd), .374 OBP (181st), .442 slugging (149th)

PITCHING: 3.9 runs (3rd), 7.9 hits (16th), 8.6 SO/9 (115th), 3.15 BB/9 (7th), 1.23 WHIP (3rd)

DEFENSE: 34 errors, .984 fielding percentage (1st)

SYCAMORES PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 3B Mike Sears- Mike Sears is the literal definition of boom or bust. He leads ISU with 27 extra base hits, 19 home runs and 59 RBI’s, but has struck an incredible 90 times for a 36.1% strikeout rate. 51.3% of balls in play off the bat of Sears are fly balls and 31.7% of his fly balls clear the fence for a home run. He was an Honorable Mention All-MVC selection, as well as a All-Defensive Team selection.

2. SS Randal Diaz- First Team All-MVC selection, Randal Diaz is batting .296 with 14 doubles, ten home runs and a team-leading 68 hits. His 12.8% strikeout is second lowest among the ISU starters and has 19 multi-hit games this season. In the season opener against the Hawkeyes, Diaz drew three walks.

3. OF Adam Pottinger- The Sycamores batting leader, Adam Pottinger leads the team with a .300 average and a .452 on-base percentage. He leads the team with 49 walks/hbp and 44 runs scored. Pottinger’s eight doubles, nine home runs, 33 RBI’s and has a hit in 28 of his last 32 games. He is a Second Team All-MVC selection.

4. OF Seth Gergely- Gergely is the top fielder on an ISU team that ranks first in the country in fielding percentage and has not made an error in 119 chances this season. At the plate, Gergely is batting .298 with nine doubles and five home runs. He has reached base 41 times via walk/hbp and is second on team with a .424 on-base percentage.

5. DH Luis Hernandez- Hernandez had a pair of hits against Iowa in the season opener and is batting .296 with a team-leading 17 doubles. Over his last six games, he is batting 9/24 (.375) with four doubles and five RBI’s.

– The Sycamores pride themselves on their pitching staff and are in the top 15 nationally in multiple categories. The starting rotation of Jachec, Fenlong and Miller is one of the best amongst the mid-major schools, but the bullpen holds up their end as well.

6. LHP Jared Spencer- As the closer on the staff, Jared Spencer picked up five saves and earned First Team All-MVC honors this season. He boasts a 4.15 ERA over 34.2 innings and has appeared in a team-leading 22 games. Spencer has accumulated 49 strikeouts to just 17 walks this season and is second on the team with a 34.0% strikeout rate. Teams are hitting just .208 against him.

7. RHP Cameron Holycross- Second Team All-MVC selection Cameron Holycross has appeared in just 15 games this season, but brings in a team-leading 2.00 ERA over 36.0 innings of work. He has 34 strikeouts to 17 walks and opponents are hitting just .214 against him. Holycross has allowed 27 hits, but a 50.5% groundball rate on balls in play has held opponents to just six extra base hits.

8. LHP Zach Davidson- Davidson is the strikeout arm in the Sycamores bullpen, as he has racked up 50 strikeouts to 15 walks over 30.2 innings this season. That’s good for a team-leading 38.2% strikeout rate. Over his last nine appearances, Davidson has 32 strikeouts to just three walks and has not allowed a run over his last 16.1 innings.

WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS (39-21) – Horizon League Auto-bid

Stats: Wright State Stats

The Raiders are making their 10th regional appearance, including their third straight. They own a 5-18 record in tournaments games, including a 1-2 mark against Big Ten teams.

Wright State enters the tournament with a 39-21 record, after winning the Horizon League regular season and tournament titles. They have a 3-8 record against tournament teams, including a series win over Army.

OFFENSE: 7.3 runs (92nd), 9.2 hits (190th), .278 AVG (159th), .389 OBP (105th), .482 slugging (70th)

PITCHING: 5.7 runs (72nd), 8.8 hits (75th), 8.8 SO/9 (96th), 3.60 BB/9 (29th), 1.41 WHIP (52nd)

DEFENSE: 59 errors, .973 fielding percentage (99th)

RAIDERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. OF Andrew Patrick- The first of four First Team All-Horizon selections, Patrick leads the team with a .333 average, as well as 21 doubles, four triples and 19 home runs. He has driven in 58 RBI’s and scored another 70, which makes him apart of 29.4% of the Raiders runs scored. Patrick is also a threat on the bases with 29 stolen bases. D1Baseball named him the most exciting player in the regional.

2. 2B Gehrig Anglin- Another First Team selection, Anglin is batting .306 this season with 14 doubles and nine home runs. He has a team-leading .446 on-base percentage and an 11.5% strikeout rate. Anglin racked up six hits in two games against Oakland in the Horizon League championship. He also is second on the team with 14 stolen bases.

3. OF Jay Luikart- Luikart is a First Team All-Horizon selecion and is third on the team with a .304 batting average. He is second on the team in a number of categories, including runs (52), hits (70), extra base hits (28), home runs (11) and is third on the team with 43 RBI’s. Luikart also has a 4.96 ERA over 14 appearances on the mound.

4. DH Julian Greenwell- Another bat in a lineup filled with guys that can rack up extra base hits, Greenwell is batting .288 with 15 doubles and ten home runs. He is one of four players on the team with more than 100 total bases and has driven in 41 runs.

5. C Sammy Sass- Named the top catcher in the Horizon League, Sass is batting .295 with 67 hits, 11 doubles and seven home runs. He has racked up 20 multi-hit games this season and is one of six players on the team with at least ten hit by pitches.

6. LHP Joey Valentine- True freshman lefthander Joey Valentine has burst onto the scene in his first year with the Raiders. In 25 appearances, Valentine has a 4.07 ERA, including 32 strikeouts over 24.1 innings. He does deal with some control issues, as he has walked 21 batters, but he also leads the team with a .170 opponent batting average.

7. RHP Josh Laisure- Appearing in 21 games this season, Laisure brings in a 4.65 ERA over 40.2 innings of work. He leads the Raiders pitching staff with a 28.5% strikeout rate and pairs that with a 10.1% walk rate. Laisure has the ability to go longer out of the bullpen if needed and has thrown 35+ pitches in 10 of his 21 outings.

REGIONAL ODDS

WarrenNolan.com- Indiana State (40.3%), Iowa (37.3%), North Carolina (19.9%), Wright State (2.5%)

DraftKings- North Carolina (+185), Iowa (+240), Indiana State (+245), Wright State (+750)

Wright State (+155) at Indiana State (-190)

Iowa (-130) vs North Carolina (+100)

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the regional at 2.5 wins. Under and the Hawkeyes season will come to an end. Hit the over and it means Iowa either won the regional or is playing on Monday in a winner takes all game.

Much like last week’s Big Ten Tournament, staying on the right side of the bracket is of the utmost importance. That makes the first game agiainst UNC a very important matchup. Over the last five tournaments, 60 of the 80 (75.0%) regional winners have started 2-0. I predict that the Terre Haute Regional will stay on that same path and whoever starts 2-0 will advance to the super regional. Iowa has the most balanced team in the regional when it comes to looking at all facets of the games (offense, defense, pitching). If that statement holds true, then Iowa will have a good shot at winning their first NCAA regional under Rick Heller.

First pitch on Friday at Bob Warn Field against North Carolina is set for 6:00pm CT on the ACC Network.