Iowa Baseball Season Preview: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for the season

Later today, the Iowa Baseball team will take the field down in Tampa and kick off the 135th season in program history. The Hawkeyes begin the 2025 campaign with a three-game series against the South Florida Bulls. After falling short last season, Rick Heller and Co. are looking to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons.

“We’ve tried, since day one (in the fall), to prepare everybody that’s new for what we’re going to face and what the challenges are going to be,” said head coach Rick Heller. “It was just a full court press on trying to improve and trying to get better, to get to a spot where we can compete and win games and not take a step back with a bunch of new guys.”

With the Iowa Baseball season opener less than 12 hours away, it’s the perfect time to examine the key factors that will influence the season’s trajectory and potential outcomes. HawkeyeReport takes a look at three pivotal storylines that are expected to define the season, as well as the best- and worst-case scenarios for the season.

Three storylines that will dictate the success of the season…

1. How much can the bullpen improve on last year’s numbers?

If the Hawkeyes are going to compete to finish in the upper portion of the Big Ten standings and work their way into NCAA Tournament discussions, the bullpen has to significantly improve on last year’s numbers. Last season, they posted a 6.79 ERA over 258.1 innings, including a 1.67 WHIP and allowed opponents to average 1.01 hits per inning. They brought in Houston pitching coach Sean Kenny and return eight of their top ten in appearances from a year ago. Add in a couple of transfer additions, a pair of true freshmen that can contribute immediately and there’s reason to be hopeful. When Iowa went to the NCAA Tournament in 2023, the bullpen finished with a 4.29 ERA over 285.1 innings and had a 1.31 WHIP.

2. Can Cade Obermueller be a true Friday night ace like some past Hawkeyes?

Rick Heller has had a pretty good run on dependable aces over the years, including Blake Hickman, Tyler Peyton, Trenton Wallace, Adam Mazur and Brody Brecht. Now, the expectation is that in his third year with the program, left-hander Cade Obermueller can become ‘The guy’ on the pitching staff and handle the Friday night role. Last season, Obermueller posted a 3.92 ERA over 13 starts, totaling 73 strikeouts to 57 free bases. That free base number is the one that needs to see progress this season, and if it does, there’s a lot to be excited about, as he held opponents to 0.65 hits per inning. Having a true ace on Friday that can consistently get deep into games will give the Hawkeyes a chance to win any series opener and help keep the bullpen fresh for the rest of the weekend.

3. Does the perceived depth on the offensive end translate to having a solid offense?

The Hawkeyes lost some pretty big bats in the lineup and a couple of multi-year starters, but the coaching staff did a great job of finding transfers that can make an immediate impact. The mix of returning players with the transfer additions gives this offense a lot of perceived depth going into the season. First and foremost, returners like Andy Nelson, Gable Mitchell, Reese Moore and Ben Wilmes need to help lead the charge. If they can do that, in conjunction with some of the newcomers like Daniel Rogers, Kooper Schulte, Caleb Wulf, Miles Risley and Jackson Beaman fitting into the other holes, this offense has a chance to be pretty solid and versatile. However, the perceived depth and versatility has to translate into real production.

Best Case Scenario

Back in a position familiar to the Iowa Baseball program, Rick Heller and the Hawkeyes strike again, surprising many after beginning the season under-the-radar and overlooked. The pitching staff shows marked improvement under first year pitching coach Sean Kenny, led by Cade Obermueller who cuts down on his free bases and although he doesn’t win Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, he sticks in the conversation. The rotation sees a couple of different pitchers making starts on Saturday and Sunday, not due to poor performance, but rather because of the depth and versatility within the staff. The improved consistency in the starting rotation becomes a substantial boost for the bullpen, which has a bounce back season, led by Anthony Watts, Ben DeTaeye and Jack Whitlock. A couple of other arms step into notable roles and are reliable enough the coaching staff can rely on them in most situations.

Offensively, the transfer additions fill their roles well, while the returning starters each take their games to a slightly higher level. It’s not an offense that’s going to blast loads of home runs, but they show flashes of power, and most importantly, they know how to manufacture runs in a number of ways, which has always been a Rick Heller staple. The Hawkeyes get off to a solid start in non-conference play and are able to take advantage of getting the top teams in Iowa City in conference play, grabbing a couple of series wins. In Omaha, at the Big Ten Tournament, Iowa gets all the way to the championship game, and even though they fall short, they get an at-large bid selection to an NCAA Tournament Regional.

Worst Case Scenario

Beginning the season overlooked and under-the-radar gives the Hawkeyes a bit of a chip on their shoulder, but does it translate to a postseason berth? Under first year pitching coach Sean Kenny, the pitching staff makes some strides, but there are still free base issues that show up more often than they would like. Cade Obermueller has a solid season, but it’s not a completely smooth journey. He has a few outings where he’s elite, but a few outings where he struggles. This inconsistency prevents him from fully establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in the Big Ten. The starting rotation as a whole is ends up being good, but not great. As for the bullpen, there’s noticeable improvement, but reducing last season’s 6.79 ERA remains a significant challenge. Free bases are less frequent, but still show up in certain situations, which leads to a couple of losses.

On the offensive side, the Hawkeyes have stretches where they look like a respectable bunch and put up runs, but there are also stretches where they lack power and struggle to score. Overall, Rick Heller ends up having a team that is capable of winning most games, but despite having an improved team, the Hawkeyes end up having a similar season results wise. The Hawkeyes finish as a middle-of-the-pack team in Big Ten play, unable to string together enough series wins to break into the upper echelon of the conference. Iowa heads to the Big Ten Tournament on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament, needing a strong performance to secure an at-large bid. They secure a win in the opener, but ultimately fall to the top seed in their pod, bringing their season to an end.