Iowa Baseball Season Preview: Starting Rotation

The HawkeyeReport Iowa Baseball season preview series continues on, as we transition from the position players to the pitching staff. Kicking things off with a look at the starting rotation, Cade Obermueller returns and will be the guy that Rick Heller gives the ball to on Friday nights. Meanwhile, two new faces enter the rotation on Saturday and Sunday. Although they lost two starters to the MLB Draft, the hope is that this year’s rotation can provide a little bit more consistency. We take a look at each starter and break down why they earned a spot in the weekend rotation to start the season.

Friday – Jr LHP Cade Obermueller

Pitch Arsenal: FB (92-95), SL (80-83), CH (86-89)

After Trenton Wallace (2021) and Adam Mazur (2022) won Big Ten Pitcher of the Year in back-to-back seasons, the Hawkeyes have had the preseason pick the last two seasons, but haven’t won the end of season award. Junior left-hander Cade Obermueller will be trying to end that streak, as the Big Ten coaches made him the preseason pick to win the award. After being selected in the 19th Round of the MLB Draft by the Texas Rangers, Cade opted to return to be the ace of the staff.

“I think Cade choosing to come back was a great decision…it’s a different deal when you’re the (Friday) guy. The expectations for him are the same as what (Brody and Marcus) were feeling last year,” said Heller. “To have that on your shoulders and succeed and be the guy that everybody can count on before you go into pro ball, I think is huge.”

After coming out of the bullpen as a freshman, Obermueller moved to the starting rotation last season. He floated around the rotation, starting four times on Friday, four times on Saturday, and three times on Sunday, while he missed two starts with a rib injury. By all accounts, it was a solid season for the Iowa City native, posting a 3.92 ERA over 59.2 innings. Cade struck out 73 and allowed 0.65 hits per inning, but got in trouble with his command, giving up 57 free bases (walks+hbp).

As the Friday night ace, the coaching staff will lean on Cade to get deeper into games and keep the bullpen as fresh as possible going into the weekend. Last season, Obermueller averaged 4.2 innings per start, going 5.0+ innings in seven of his 13 starts, but only got through six innings one time. For Cade to go deeper into games, it’s pretty straightforward: limit free bases and maintain a reasonable pitch count.

“He has done everything that he’s needed to do (in the offseason) in a very mature way,” said Heller. “He’s stronger, he’s mentally tougher, he’s in better control of himself. I feel like it’s been very fluid, steady progress since day one.”

In his six starts that went less than 5.0 innings, Cade averaged 20.88 pitches per inning. That number dropped to 17.16 per inning in starts that went at least 5.0 innings. With a fastball that can run into the mid 90’s and a devastating slider that averages 18-22 inches of horizontal break, the stuff is unquestionable. It’s all about maintaining command and making sure that his misses are still competitive pitches. If Cade wants to become a 6-7 inning starter this season, he needs to work in the 14-17 range for pitches per inning instead of 17-20. I got a chance to see him throw in a scrimmage on January 31st and he did just that. He pounded the strike zone, while his misses were around the zone and competitive.

“The guy that threw Friday (Jan 31), if he can be that consistent and pound the zone like he did with all of his pitches, you could see Cade going six, seven innings, maybe longer…he’s cleaned up a lot of the stuff that he needed to clean up and that’s going to allow him to be more consistent.”

Saturday – Jr RHP Aaron Savary

Pitch Arsenal: FB (89-91), Sinker (89-92), CRV (75-76), SL (76-78), CH (82-83)

Many people expected to see Aaron Savary slide into the starting rotation this year after he put together a mostly successful season as a reliever a year ago. That’s where he finds himself to start this season, after appearing in 15 games with two starts as a sophomore. Savary posted a 4.19 ERA over 38.2 innings, including 40 strikeouts to 17 walks. Excluding his weird midweek outing against Bradley, where he put three of the four batters he faced on base, who then later scored after he exited, his ERA would be an even more admirably looking 3.53 over 38.1 innings. Free bases, at times, got Aaron in trouble and that’s where he will be looking to improve on his 14.3% walk+hbp rate. Rick Heller says, after a summer playing in the Cape Cod League, Savary returned this fall as a more mature pitcher.

“He’s been way more accountable and consistent starting day one in the fall,” said Heller. “I think Aaron has really grown and matured as a person. Last year was big for him, getting out there and being in some tough spots, and having some success.”

Playing with the Hyannis Harbor Hawks in the Cape Cod League last summer, Aaron was named to the Cape Cod West Division All-Star team. Savary appeared in seven games, with four starts, posting a 1.42 ERA over 25.1 innings. Although he did give up 20 walks, he managed to limit the damage, allowing just 0.47 hits per inning and totaling 32 strikeouts. The numbers weren’t exactly lights out like the season Adam Mazur had on the Cape in 2021, but Aaron was able to work out of jams against some of the best hitters in college baseball. An experience that will be very valuable when he takes the mound for starts this season.

“The thing that I like about Aaron is that he doesn’t let things bother him, good, bad, whatever. He lets it roll off his back and gets back after it.”

“He had times where he was lights out, and then he’d have some inconsistency with walks. I think he’s to a point where we’re hoping that he’s overcome that and can be even more consistent than last year. If he can be, I think he’s the perfect guy for the Saturday role, but if we ever needed to move him, we know that he can be successful out of the bullpen and has good experience with that.”

Sunday – rSr RHP Reece Beuter

Pitch Arsenal: FB (90-92), SL (82-83), CH (82-85)

The Sunday spot in the starting rotation was one that saw plenty of deliberation with the coaching staff over the last couple of weeks. Much of that pondering was surrounding what they wanted to do with Anthony Watts. The final decision was to give him a big role in the bullpen and give redshirt senior Reece Beuter, who made significant strides over the offseason, the spot in the rotation.

“Beuter has really had a bounce back (offseason),” said Heller. “He’s cleaned up a couple of things that we think is going to allow him for his stuff to play better. A combo of Sean (Kenny) and our analytics guys making some minor tweaks with his delivery that I think will really benefit him and he’s been really consistent.”

After transferring in from Dallas Baptist, Beuter appeared in 16 games last season, with one start. He posted a 12.54 ERA over 18.2 innings, allowing opponents to average 1.77 hits per inning. For the most part, his control was good, with 61.8% of his 380 pitches going for strikes. The coaching staff is hoping that the tweaks they made will allow him to miss more bats with his pitches.

“He would agree that he just didn’t have a great year last year, but with his stuff, his makeup and his work ethic, he’s just too good for that to be who he is…Reece pitched great all fall and earned the Sunday start.”

Another name to know – Grad Sr LHP Bryson Walker

Pitch Arsenal: FB (88-92), CRV (74-76), SL (79-81), CH (81-83)

One of three transfer additions to the pitching staff that have connections to new pitching coach Sean Kenny, Houston transfer Bryson Walker opted to redshirt last season, spending the year working with Kenny to prepare for his final year of eligibility. He hasn’t gotten a lot of opportunity during his collegiate career, appearing in just 18 games during his time at Incarnate Word and Houston.

Walker got a chance to pitch extended innings, with more frequent outings last summer in the Texas Collegiate League with the Brazos Valley Bombers. He was simply fantastic, posting a 0.64 ERA over 56.1 innings, including 81 strikeouts to juts 18 walks. Walker held opponents to a .144 batting average and 0.50 hits per inning. Though it’s unlikely that Bryson is that dominant in his role with the Hawkeyes, it shows what he is capable of on the mound.

“The thing about Bryson is his makeup is to just really come at you. Tough guy, fast arm, work fast, come at you, aggressive…has a little bit of a chip on his shoulder to prove what he can do,” said Heller. “I feel like that is going to help our staff because a guy like that, we only have one or two like that, where regardless of how his stuff is that day, he’s still coming at you.”

Initially, Walker was expected to be in the thick of the race for a spot in the starting rotation but missed the majority of the fall with some elbow issues that have since been resolved. Rick Heller says that Bryson will come out of the bullpen to start the season, while he builds up his pitch count and they will see how his role evolves as the season gets underway.

“We’re all super happy that the treatment and the stuff that we did as a training staff and team doctors, that they made a really good decision. Bryson feels really good about himself now and feels like he can got out in his last year and have a big role.”

Final Outlook

Ultimately, whether this starting rotation stays the same throughout the season or has some changes as the year goes on, the biggest keys will remain the same. First, the Hawkeyes must get more length from their starters. Last season, the starting trio averaged just 4.2 innings per start and completed 5.0 innings in just 18 of 41 (43.9%) starts. Second, the number of free bases given up has to see significant improvement. Over 190.0 innings a year ago, the starting trio gave up 186 walks+hbp and had a 21.1% walk+hbp rate.

While this starting rotation doesn’t have the same name recognition that Brody Brecht and Marcus Morgan had at the national level, Cade Obermueller is capable of having a Big Ten Pitcher of the Year type season. In my opinion, how good the Hawkeyes starting rotation ends up being will depend on the level of consistency they can get from the Saturday and Sunday starters. The talent is there with Savary and Beuter, along with other options for this to be an above average starting rotation.

Up Next, we swing over to the other half of the pitching staff and break down the Iowa bullpen. Can the relief pitchers rebound after a difficult 2024 campaign?