Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Michigan State

WEEKEND SERIES: VS MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (12-4)

Despite a slow start in non-conference play, the Iowa Baseball got off to a roaring start in Big Ten play, taking two of three from Rutgers last weekend in Piscataway. After dropping the opener on Friday, the Hawkeyes responded putting up 28 runs over the final two games of the weekend to steal the series. They tacked on a midweek win over Augustana College to make it five wins in their last six games. This weekend, the Hawkeyes are back at Duane Banks Field to host their first Big Ten series of the season, welcoming Michigan State to Iowa City. MSU leads the all-time series 81-74, but Iowa has won eight of the last nine meetings dating back to 2021.

The Spartans are led by 17th-year head coach Jake Boss, who has guided MSU to 453 wins during his time in East Lansing, including an NCAA Tournament regional in 2012. Although Michigan State has made the Big Ten Tournament in just two of the last eight seasons, they are off to a good start in non-conference play, with a 12-4 overall record. It hasn’t been the most treacherous of schedules, but the Spartans did grab a win over Washington State and split a pair with 13-4 UAB. MSU fell to in-state rival Michigan in a midweek matchup on Wednesday.

Michigan State Last 10 Games (6-4)

Feb 23 vs UCLA: L 15-9 Feb 28-March 2 vs Harvard: W 14-1, W 11-1, W 13-3 March 5 vs Western Carolina: L 10-7 March 7 vs UAB: W 5-2 March 7 vs Cornell: W 3-2 March 8 vs Winthrop: W 7-0 March 9 vs UAB: L 12-7 March 12 vs Michigan: L 11-7

IOWA HAWKEYES *PROJECTED* STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Friday) – Through four starts this season, Cade Obermueller has a 3.27 ERA over 22.0 innings, including 27 strikeouts to 13 free bases. He is allowing 0.86 hits per inning but, for the most part, he hasn’t been hit hard, although Peyton Bonds did hit a long home run off of him on Friday. He will be looking for a bounce back start this week after allowing five runs, four earned on six hits over 5.2 innings against Rutgers, including two strikeouts and four free bases. Cade’s strike percentage is still in a good spot, sitting at 63.0% on 368 pitches.

RHP Aaron Savary (Saturday) – Through four weekends, Aaron Savary has been the “wildest” of the Hawkeye starters, but by far the most effective, posting 1.66 ERA over 21.2 innings. Per inning pitched, Savary is giving up 0.74 free bases, but has limited opponents to just 0.42 hits, while averaging 1.30 strikeouts. On Saturday against Rutgers, Aaron tossed 5.0 scoreless innings, totaling six strikeouts to two walks and just three hits. He threw 58 of his 85 (68.2%) pitches for strikes, which is his best mark of the season.

RHP Reece Beuter (Sunday) – Through three weeks, Reece Beuter was the best Hawkeye starter but suffered his first setback of the season on Sunday at Rutgers. Beuter allowed six runs on six hits over 3.2 innings, totaling three strikeouts to two walks. He still filled up the zone, throwing 39 of his 59 (66.1%) pitches for strikes. Through four starts, Reece owns a 4.35 ERA over 20.2 innings, including 15 strikeouts to four walks and a 69.0% strike percentage.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS *PROJECTED* STARTING ROTATION

LHP Joseph Dzierwa (Friday) – One of the best starting pitchers, if not the best starting pitcher the Hawkeyes will face this season, left-hander Joseph Dzierwa opted to return to East Lansing after initially committing to transfer to Vanderbilt. He’s been phenomenal through four starts, posting a 0.70 ERA over 25.2 innings, including 41 strikeouts to just six walks. Opponents are averaging just 0.35 hits and 0.66 baserunners per inning. Last time out against UAB, Dzierwa tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, totaling eight strikeouts to four walks and three hits. Expect a lengthy outing, as Dzierwa is averaging 6.1 innings per start.

RHP Nolan Higgins (Saturday) – The Spartans will send junior right-hander Nolan Higgins to the mound on Saturday. Through four starts this season, Higgins has posted a 2.80 ERA over 19.1 innings, including 17 strikeouts to 14 free bases. Opponents are averaging 0.88 hits and 1.61 base runners per inning. Last time out against Cornell, Higgins allowed two runs on five hits over 5.2 innings, totaling five strikeouts to four free bases given up.

RHP Aidan Donovan (Sunday) – Rounding out the MSU projected starting rotation is freshman right-hander Aidan Donovan. Rated as the #4 right-handed pitcher in Michigan by Perfect Game for the class of ’24, Donovan has appeared in four games with three starts this season. He has posted a 1.38 ERA over 13.0 innings but rely relies on balls in play to get outs, with just 15.4% of his 39 outs recorded coming via the strikeout. Last time out against UAB, Donovan allowed four runs, two earned on four hits over 3.0 innings.

SPARTANS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. DH/OF Nick Williams – A former transfer from Wabash Valley CC, outfielder Nick Williams is the top returning hitter for the Spartans from last season. In 49 starts a year ago, Williams batted .309, with 56 hits, 15 doubles, four home runs and 37 RBI’s. He led MSU and ranked 11th in the Big Ten with 37 walks drawn. So far this season, Williams is slashing .255/.418/.569, with 13 hits, five doubles, three home runs and 13 RBI’s. He does have a 22.7% walk+hbp rate compared to a 9.1% strikeout rate. It’s also worth noting that when he gets on base, he scores, crossing home plate in 23 of the 28 (82.1%) times he has reached base.

2. 1B Sam Busch – Redshirt senior first baseman Sam Busch is enjoying the best start to a season in his collegiate career. A frequent fixture in the Spartans lineup the last two seasons, Busch started 72 games, but batted just .226, with a 27.6% strikeout rate. In 13 starts, Busch is slashing .311/.429/.689, with 14 hits, two doubles, five home runs and 17 RBI’s. If MSU is going to be a competitive team in Big Ten play, they need a couple of surprises and Sam Busch has been that so far.

3. OF JT Sokolove – A transfer from Illinois State, outfielder JT Sokolove will be a familiar name for those that have followed Iowa midweek action closely the last couple of seasons. An MVC All-Defensive Team selection for the Redbirds, Sokolove batted .272, with 52 hits, four home runs and totaled 20 stolen bases. He’s off to a hot start in 16 games this season, slashing .321/.493/.415, with 17 hits, 15 runs scored and three extra base hits. Sokolove has been a ball magnet, totaling 12 hit by pitches, which ranks third in the country.

4. SS Randy Seymour – One of three players to start all 51 games last season and the only one still on the roster, shortstop Randy Seymour batted .257, with 46 hits, seven doubles and three home runs. Despite not hitting for a high average yet in his career, Seymour isn’t a massive strikeout threat (career 16.8%). This season, he is slashing .269/.356/.423, with 14 hits, five doubles and a team-best 18 RBI’s. His 1.29 RBI’s per hit is third-highest in the Big Ten amongst players with 15+ hits.

5. 2B Ryan McKay – A sophomore from Clarkston, Michigan, second baseman Ryan McKay earned 46 starts as a true freshman last season. He batted .302, with 57 hits and seven doubles, while he only struck out in 14 of 204 (6.9%) plate appearances. An impressive number for a true freshman. This season, McKay is batting just .245 but has a team-high 26.4% walk+hbp rate (19 total) over 72 plate appearances, giving him a .438 on-base percentage. He does have three doubles and six RBI’s.

6. RHP Zach Maxey – A transfer from Miami Ohio, right-hander Zach Maxey is a former All-MAC selection in 2022 but appeared in just three games last season before missing the rest of the season. So far this season with the Spartans, Maxey has been pretty reliable, posting a 0.00 ERA over five appearances and 12.1 innings. He has allowed 16 to reach base, including nine free bases given up, but has still been able to post zeros on the board.

MIDWEEK: vs Illinois-Chicago (3-13)

On Tuesday, the Hawkeyes will jump back into midweek action, hosting Illinois-Chicago. It’s a Flames team that looks completely different from last season’s group that went 35-20, returning just 4 of 13 players that started 10+ games. They’ve gotten off to a rough start, sitting at 2-14, including getting outscored 79-18 in seven games against #8 Georgia and Louisville. UIC will travel to West Lafayette for a three-game series with Purdue this weekend.

FLAMES PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. OF Luke Nowak – A transfer from East Carolina, outfielder Luke Nowak appeared in 111 games, with 71 starts over the last two season for the Pirates, including earning Second Team All-AAC honors as a sophomore. This season, at UIC, Nowak has been very good, slashing .397/.455/.552, with 23 hits, three doubles, two home runs and 10 RBI’s. A tough out at the top of the lineup, Nowak will look to set the table for his teammates.

2. OF Lucas Smith – A sophomore from Hinsdale, Illinois, outfielder Lucas Smith has gotten off to a good start, after totaling just six at-bats as a true freshman last season. Smith is slashing .262/.429/.333, with 11 hits, three doubles and a team-best 13 walks+hbp. It’s a UIC lineup that has struggled overall, batting just .249 as a team, but Smith gives the Flames a good young bat.

3. C Jackson Bessette – One of just four returning players with 10+ starts last season, catcher Jackson Bessette was a Second Team All-MVC selection, batting .328, with 14 doubles, eight home runs and 36 RBI’s. He did have a 24.4% strikeout rate and that hasn’t changed this season, with 19 strikeouts in 62 plate appearances (30.6%). Bessette is slashing .245/.403/.469, with 12 hits, three home runs and a team-best 11 RBI’s.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the week at 2.5 wins. UIC is a must-win, given the struggles they have had early in the season, but the series with the Spartans is up for grabs. It could very well come down to what happens in the series opener on Friday. Whichever starting pitcher, Dzierwa or Obermueller, gets deeper into the game could be a tone-setter for the rest of the series. With weather in the forecast, it could be even more important to get a win early, in case the full series is not completed. For the Hawkeyes, after taking two of three in the opening weekend off conference play, this is a big series to try to stick near the top of the pack in the early going, rather than fall into the middle group.