Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Michigan Wolverines

WEEKEND SERIES: AT MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (23-14, 8-7)

The Iowa Baseball team enters week six of the conference schedule, still holding a slim-half game lead over UCLA atop the Big Ten standings with their 14-4 record. This past weekend, the Hawkeyes took two of three against Nebraska in Iowa City, winning 1-0 on Friday and 11-6 on Saturday. The Huskers took the series finale 6-4, but it still goes as the sixth consecutive series win for Iowa to begin Big Ten play.

This weekend, the Hawkeyes travel to Ann Arbor for a three-game series against Michigan at Ray Fisher Stadium. Michigan leads the all-time series 123-60, but it’s been close recently, with Iowa holding a slim 6-5 advantage over the Wolverines over the past three seasons.

Under the direction of third-year head coach Tracy Smith, the Wolverines are 83-70 but are still looking for their first NCAA Regional appearance since 2022. Michigan enters this weekend with a 23-14 overall record and an 8-7 mark in Big Ten play, while they are still fully in the hunt for a top four finish. The Wolverines are riding a seven-game winning streak, but six of those wins have come against teams rated 180 or lower in the RPI. Michigan defeated Toledo 10-0 in 7 innings on Tuesday.

As a team, Michigan ranks sixth in the conference in batting average (.294), sixth in extra base hits (126), eighth in on-base percentage (.400), ninth in runs per game (7.24). They have two hitters inside the top ten in the conference in batting average (Casillas and Voit)

The Wolverines pitching staff ranks eighth in the Big Ten in ERA (5.41), eighth in WHIP (1.52), 14th in walks per nine innings (5.) and 15th in strikeouts per nine innings (7.7). All three Michigan starting pitchers rank inside the top 25 in the Big Ten in ERA.

Michigan Last 10 Games (8-2)

April 1 at Eastern Michigan: W 13-2 April 4-6 at Oregon: L 15-2, L 13-3, W 12-11 April 8 vs Akron: W 13-0 April 9 vs Oakland: W 8-7 (10) April 11-13 vs Mt St Mary’s: W 10-0, W 3-1, W 10-0 April 15 at Toledo: W 10-0

IOWA HAWKEYES PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Friday) – Through nine starts this season, Cade Obermueller ranks second in the Big Ten with a 2.18 ERA, tallying 76 strikeouts to 25 free bases over 53.2 innings. He has completed 5.0 innings in all nine starts, including five starts that have gone 6.0+ innings. In last Friday’s win over Nebraska, Obermueller tossed 7.0 scoreless innings, giving up just two hits and two walks, while striking out 11 Husker hitters. He threw 73 of his 112 (65.2%) pitches for strikes. Over his last four starts, he has not given up a single earned run over 26.0 innings, totaling 43 strikeouts to just 20 total baserunners.

RHP Aaron Savary (Saturday) – Through nine starts this season, Aaron Savary has a 4.02 ERA over 47.0 innings, including 51 strikeouts to 31 free bases given up. The middle portion of the season has been a little tougher on Savary, as he has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts, giving up 0.95 hits per inning over that stretch. Last time out against Nebraska, Aaron gave up five runs on five hits over 5.0 innings, including four strikeouts to two walks. When Savary is able to get his strike rate into the 60’s, percent wise, his numbers are better.

RHP Reece Beuter (Sunday) – Through nine starts his season, Reece Beuter has a 4.35 ERA over 41.1 innings, including 43 strikeouts to 21 free bases given up. For the most part, Beuter has been everything you could hope for from a Sunday starter. After going for a season-low 2.0 innings at Northwestern, Reece bounced back on Sunday against Nebraska. He allowed three runs on three hits over 5.0 innings, including seven strikeouts and no walks.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

***Michigan head coach Tracy Smith did not submit a starting rotation***

RHP David Lally Jr (Friday) – A transfer from Notre Dame, right-hander David Lally Jr has been the Friday starter for the Wolverines after appearing in 13 games for the Fighting Irish last season. He has appeared in nine games, with eight starts, posting a 4.37 ERA over 47.1 innings, including 36 strikeouts to 24 free bases given up. Lally has given Michigan length, going 6.0+ innings in three of his starts, but does give up some power, with 20 of his 44 hits allowed going for extra bases. Last time out against Mt St Mary’s, he tossed 7.0 scoreless innings, striking out five and walking one, while allowing just three hits.

RHP Kurt Barr (Saturday) – A veteran on the Wolverines pitching staff, right-hander Kurt Barr has been both a bullpen arm and a starter during his career. This season, Barr has appeared in ten games, with eight starts, posting a 4.40 ERA over 43.0 innings, including 52 strikeouts to 29 free bases given up. The Wolverines coaching staff will stick with him deep into starts, as he is averaging nearly 6.1 innings over his last five starts. The results have been mixed, but he did toss 6.0 scoreless against USC and 8.0 scoreless against Mt St Mary’s. Barr gives up limited power, with just 14 of his 43 hits allowed going for extra bases.

RHP Dylan Vigue (Sunday) – The youngest arm in the Michigan rotation, sophomore right-hander Dylan Vigue appeared in 15 games, with 11 starts last season as a true freshman (7.90 ERA). This season, Vigue has appeared in nine games, with eight starts, posting a 5.36 ERA over 42.0 innings. Opponents are averaging 0.83 hits per inning against him, but free bases have been the issue, giving up 32 walks and ten hit by pitches for a 21.1% walk+hbp rate. Vigue has not completed 5.0 innings in each of his last three starts, allowing 13 runs on 13 hits over his last 13.0 innings. He tossed a scoreless inning in the Wolverines midweek win over Toledo, throwing just 13 pitches and tallying one strikeout.

WOLVERINES PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 2B Mitch Voit – Despite ranking in the middle of the conference in most categories, there are some heavy hitters in the Michigan lineup, starting with junior infielder Mitch Voit. A two-way player for the Wolverines the last two seasons, Voit is hitting only this season and is on track to surpass last season’s 69 hits, 36 extra base hits and 46 RBI’s. The only player to start all 37 games, Voit is slashing .361/.494/.632, with 48 hits, 38 runs scored, 13 doubles, seven home runs and 40 RBI’s. He has totaled 14 multi-hit games, while his 14.7% strikeout rate and 21.8% walk+hbp rate are both career-best marks by a considerable amount.

2. SS Benny Casillas – A grad transfer from Loyola Marymount, infielder Benny Casillas is a veteran college player, appearing 147 games during his time with the Lions. He’s having a breakout final year with the Wolverines, slashing .426/.519/.543, with 55 hits, 33 runs scored, 13 doubles and 27 RBI’s. He ranks second in the Big Ten in both average and total hits. Casillas is currently riding a 17-game hitting streak, while has totaled 13 hits over his last six games. On top of his .519 on-base percentage, Casillas has struck out in just 10.3% of his 155 plate appearances.

3. 3B Cole Caruso – A two-year starter at USC Upstate, infielder Cole Caruso had a decent year last season, but has taken a step forward, clearing becoming the third-best hitter in the Michigan lineup. In 36 starts, Caruso is slashing .305/.378/.588, with 40 hits, eight doubles, nine home runs and 31 RBI’s. He’s on pace to finish with 70 hits, 15 doubles and 15 home runs, tallying ten multi-hit games this season. Although he is hitting over .300, Caruso doesn’t get on-base at quite the same rate as Voit and Casillas, due to a 10.9% walk+hbp rate.

4. 1B Jeter Ybarra – A grad transfer from Washington, infielder Jeter Ybarra has been an everyday starter for the Wolverines, starting 35 of 37 games. He is slashing .286/.368/.481, with 38 hits, nine doubles, four home runs and 32 RBI’s, which is second on the team behind Voit. He has totaled ten multi-hit games, with four of them coming over the last seven games.

5. OF Colby Turner – A transfer from San Diego State, outfielder Colby Turner was a five-time Mountain West Freshman of the Week honoree last season. In 31 games, with 27 starts, Turner is slashing .267/.356/.525, with 27 hits, nine doubles, five home runs and 31 RBI’s, which is tied for third most on the team. After a 2/20 start to the season, Turner has picked up the pace, including batting .354 in Big Ten play. Six of his seven multi-hit games have come against Big Ten competition.

6. RHP Max Debiec – A transfer from Folsom Lake College, right-hander Max Debiec has seemingly become a backend arm this season, tallying three saves. He has appeared in 12 games, posting a 2.84 ERA over 19.0 innings, including 18 strikeouts to 15 walks. Opponents are batting just .152 against him, averaging 0.53 hits per inning.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under at 1.5 wins for the weekend. This feels like a pretty crucial weekend for both sides. For Iowa, they’re looking to stick atop the Big Ten standings, while a series win would give them a huge RPI boost. As for Michigan, they are still in the hunt for a top four spot in the Big Ten Tournament and while their RPI is in at-large range, they’re still looking for a series win that would really stand out on the resume. The Wolverines rank middle of the pack in the conference in most offensive categories, but they have a really dangerous core group of hitters. Despite this being in Ann Arbor, Cade Obermueller has been virtually unbeatable lately, while Reece Beuter, if he’s on, will have the advantage over Dylan Vigue on Sunday. I’ll take the Hawkeyes to win two of three, but they need to get off to a good start on the back on Obermueller on Friday.