Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Northwestern Wildcats

WEEKEND SERIES: AT NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (13-13, 5-4)

The Iowa Baseball team is off to their best start in Big Ten play since 2015, sitting at 10-2 and tied atop the standings with UCLA. Last week, the Hawkeyes traveled to Minneapolis for a rare Thursday-Friday series due to incoming weather. Rick Heller’s squad took the series opener 16-7 and then won 13-0 and 7-6 on Friday to earn their second consecutive Big Ten sweep. The Hawkeyes defeated Bradley 13-3 in 7 innings on Tuesday and have now won 15 of their last 18 games after starting 3-6.

This weekend, the Hawkeyes are headed to Evanston for a three-game series against an improved Northwestern Wildcats squad. Iowa leads the all-time series 146-108-2, earning sweep over the ‘Cats last season in Iowa City.

Under the direction of second-year head coach Ben Greenspan, Northwestern has made significant strides, going from 10-40 in ’23 under Jim Foster to 18-34 in ’24 to 13-13 this season, including a 5-4 start in Big Ten play placing them fifth in the current standings. The ‘Cats have won five of their last seven in Big Ten play, including back-to-back series wins over Illinois and Maryland. Northwestern defeated UIC 2-1 in 10 innings on Tuesday.

Northwestern Last 10 Games (6-4)

March 15 vs Penn State: L 10-7, W 13-5 March 21-22 at Illinois: W 5-4, L 11-6, W 14-4 March 25 vs Western Michigan: L 2-1 March 28-30 at Maryland: W 6-5 (10), W 18-8, L 22-11 April 1 vs UIC: W 2-1

IOWA HAWKEYES PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Friday) – Through seven starts this season, Cade Obermueller ranks second in the Big Ten with a 2.95 ERA, tallying 53 strikeouts and allowing 18 free bases over 39.2 innings. He is averaging 5.2 innings per start and has gone 6.0 innings in his past two outings. In last Friday’s win over Minnesota, Obermueller tossed 6.0 scoreless innings, including a career-high 11 strikeouts to two walks and three hits allowed. He is tied for 13th in the conference in fewest walks per nine innings out of 49 pitchers that have thrown at least 25.0 innings.

RHP Aaron Savary (Saturday) – Through seven starts this season, Aaron Savary has a 3.75 ERA over 36.0 innings, including 40 strikeouts to 25 free bases given up. Savary will be looking to get back on track, as he has allowed nine runs on nine hits over his last two starts. On short rest against Minnesota, Savary allowed four runs on five hits over 3.2 innings. After averaging nearly 6.0 innings per start through five weeks, Aaron has combined for just 7.0 innings the last two weeks.

RHP Reece Beuter (Sunday) – Through seven starts this season, Reece Beuter has been as reliable as any #3 starter in the Big Ten, posting a 3.67 ERA over 34.1 innings, including 33 strikeouts to 17 free bases given up. Known for his high rate of strikes thrown, Beuter has seen his percentage drop to 61.7% over his last three starts. In the Hawkeyes series finale win over Minnesota, Beuter allowed two runs on five hits over 3.2 innings, including three strikeouts to two walks.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

RHP Cole Mascott (Friday) – Quite the surprise for the series opener, the ‘Cats are planning to go with sophomore right-hander Cole Mascott. In his 14 career appearances at Northwestern, Mascott has a 13.14 ERA over 12.1 innings, including nine strikeouts to 21 walks. He has appeared in four games this season, allowing four runs, three earned on one hit over 1.2 innings last time out against Maryland. He walked four batters and struck out one.

RHP Sam Hliboki (Saturday) – A transfer from Vanderbilt, right-hander Sam Hliboki has been a workhorse for the ‘Cats this season. He has appeared in 13 games, with five starts, posting a 3.89 ERA over 41.2 innings, including 33 strikeouts to just six walks. A pitch to contact pitcher, just 26.4% of his outs recorded have come via the strikeout. In his last start against Maryland, Hliboki allowed four runs on three hits over 6.1 innings, including six strikeouts to just one walk.

To Be Announced (Sunday) – The Wildcats did not announce a starter for Sunday, but there’s a good chance that Ben Greenspan goes with either Wake Forest transfer left-hander Crawford Wade or true freshman right-hander Matthew Kouser. Those two have combined for 15 starts this season, but Wade came out of the bullpen last weekend against Maryland.

A four-year pitcher at Wake, Crawford Wade appeared in 53 games with a 4.47 ERA. This season, he has posted a 6.00 ERA over 36.0 innings, including 29 strikeouts to 14 walks. Although his strikeout rate is the highest of the normal starters, he is still only averaging 7.25 K’s per nine innings. Last time out, on Tuesday against UIC, Wade tossed 2.0 scoreless innings, including a pair of strikeouts.

As for the true freshman Matthew Kouser, he has started eight games, posting a 6.11 ERA over 35.1 innings, including 16 strikeouts to 17 walks. Kouser really relies on balls in play to get outs, as just 16 of his 106 (15.1%) outs recorded have come via the strikeout. Opponents have hit him well, averaging 1.25 hits per inning, with 19 of their 44 hits (43.2%) going for extra bases. In his last start against Maryland, Kouser allowed seven runs, four earned on nine hits over 3.1 innings, including two walks and no strikeouts.

WILDCATS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. DH Trent Liolios – Arguably the most improved player in the Big Ten this season, designated hitter Trent Liolios has gone from a low-.200’s hitter last year to one of the most dangerous hitters in the conference. In 24 starts, Liolios is slashing .352/.431/.864, with 31 hits, six doubles, 13 home runs and 28 RBI’s. He leads the Big Ten in home runs, averaging a home run every 7.77 plate appearances. Of the 11 players in the conference with 100+ plate appearances and a .700+ slugging percentage, Liolios is third in lowest strikeout rate (13.7%).

2. 3B Owen McElfatrick – One of the more veteran players on the Wildcats roster, third baseman Owen McElfatrick, now in his third season, has made 120 career starts. He was one of the team’s top hitters last season, totaling 26 extra base hits, including 11 home runs. This season, in 25 starts, McElfatrick is slashing .315/.423/.467, with 29 hits, eight doubles and two home runs. He has recorded eight multi-hit games, but has seen his extra base hit rate drop from 11.1% last season to 9.0% this season.

3. OF Jackson Freeman – A Big Ten All-Freshman Team selection a year ago, outfielder Jackson Freeman tallied 21 extra base hits, including 11 home runs. One of four players to start all 26 games this season, Freeman is slashing .277/.371/.455, with 28 hits, six doubles, four home runs and 26 RBI’s. He’s cut down his strikeouts, going from a 20.9% strikeout rate last season to 15.5% this year. Freeman has hot as of late, totaling nine hits over his last four games.

4. OF Preston Knott – A former transfer from Northern Oklahoma College, outfielder Preston Knott started 41 games last season, posting a .406 on-base percentage. This season, in 25 starts, Knott is slashing .255/.364/.461, with 26 hits, a team-high ten doubles, three home runs and 13 RBI’s. Although he has seen his average drop 20 points from last season, Preston has struck out just 16 times in 120 plate appearances (13.3% K rate).

5. C/1B Bennett Markinson – Along with Owen McElfatrick, catcher Bennett Markinson is a veteran on the Northwestern roster, with 131 career starts. Markinson batted .337 last season, with ten doubles and six home runs, but hasn’t been quite as effective this year. In 26 starts, Markinson is slashing .270/.356/.483, with 24 hits, five doubles, four home runs and 18 RBI’s. He has put the ball in play in 79.4% of his plate appearances and has struck out just eight times in 102 plate appearances (7.8% K rate).

6. LHP Blake MacMillan – The most reliable arm in the ‘Cats bullpen, Niagara transfer left-hander Blake MacMillan has appeared in eight games out of the bullpen, averaging nearly 3.0 innings per outing. MacMillan has a 2.66 ERA over 23.2 innings, including 21 strikeouts to 11 walks. He will be a long relief options for Northwestern, as he has thrown 40+ in all eight of his appearances.

MIDWEEK: at Milwaukee (7-20)

On Tuesday, Iowa will complete their nine-game road trip at Franklin Field with a matchup UW-Milwaukee. The Panthers are just 9-20 this season, including an 0-2 mark against Big Ten opponents. Overall, Milwaukee has faced a tough schedule, traveling to Mercer, South Carolina, UNLV and Kansas in non-conference play. The Panthers will go on the road for a three-game series against Purdue-Fort Wayne this weekend.

PANTHERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. SS Gabe Roessler – The biggest all-around threat in the Milwaukee lineup, shortstop Gabe Roessler has become a much bigger power threat after totaling just ten extra base hits last season. The only player to start all 27 games, Roessler is slashing .278/.381/.556, with 30 hits, six doubles, eight home runs and 22 RBI’s. He has a positive walk/hbp-strikeout ratio and leads the Panthers with 13 stolen bases. Roessler has tallied 11 multi-hit games and has 21 hits over his last 13 games.

2. 3B Tyler Bickers – On a Panthers team that has struggled to hit for average, third baseman Tyler Bickers has had no such issues. The former John Wood CC transfer batted .313 for Milwaukee last season and currently leads the team this season, slashing .337/.438/.396, with 34 hits, three doubles and 14 RBI’s. Although he doesn’t hit for much power (four extra base hits), Bickers gets on base and is second on the team with 19 walks+hit by pitches.

3. OF Charlie Marion – Despite ranking last in the Horizon in batting average, Milwaukee has hit 52 doubles and 33 home runs this season. Madison College transfer outfielder Charlie Marion brings some power to the plate, leading the Panthers in slugging percentage. In 26 starts, Marion is slashing .250/.391/.565, with 23 hits, nine doubles, six home runs and a team-high 26 RBI’s. His 16 extra base hits are tied for fourth-most in the Horizon League, while he has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games, including four multi-hit games during that stretch.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under at 2.5 wins for the week. Feels like I’m putting that as the number every week, but there hasn’t been a Big Ten series yet where I would pick Iowa under 1.5 wins. I like the Hawkeyes to take two of three from Northwestern, but the ‘Cats are playing well lately. In Big Ten play, they rank second in batting average (.324) and on-base percentage (.414), while their 49 extra base hits ranks third in the conference. That being said, their pitching staff has a 9.00 ERA and 2.01 WHIP in Big Ten play, which is a good matchup for a hot Iowa offense. As for the midweek against Milwaukee, the Hawkeyes will be heavily favored, facing a Panthers team that doesn’t hit for a very high average and sports a 9.00 team ERA.