Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes

WEEKEND SERIES: VS OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (6-12)

It’s been an unorthodox way of doing it, but the Iowa Baseball team enters week three of the Big Ten schedule with a pair of series wins to go along with their now 11-8 overall record. After dropping the opener at Rutgers, the Hawkeyes responded, winning the final two of that series, but they felt like once was not enough. Hosting Michigan State last weekend, Iowa dropped a 12-8 heartbreaker in 11 innings, before taking the final two games of the series 7-3 and 10-0. They tacked on a midweek win over Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday to make it seven wins over their last nine games.

This weekend, the Hawkeyes are back at Duane Banks Field wrapping up their eight-game homestand with a three-game series against the visiting Ohio State Buckeyes. Iowa leads the all-time series 90-81, but they lost two of three in Columbus a year ago.

The Buckeyes are led by first-year head coach Justin Haire, who spent the last nine seasons as the head man at Campbell, guiding the Camels to a 317-212 record and five NCAA Tournament regionals. He’s looking to turn around an OSU program that hasn’t made the NCAAT since 2019, but a tough schedule has taken its toll. The Buckeyes enter the weekend with a 6-12 overall record and an 0-3 mark in Big Ten play. They have a win over NC State, but are 0-4 against ranked teams, while they were swept by Arizona State and Indiana. OSU defeated Miami OH 14-7 in midweek action back on Tuesday.

Ohio State Last 10 Games (5-5)

March 2 vs Oregon State: L 12-10 March 4 vs St John’s: W 12-10 March 7-9 vs Valparaiso: L 10-7, W 15-4, W 8-3 March 11 vs Eastern Michigan: W 13-7 March 14-16 at Indiana: L 12-2, L 8-7 (10), L 14-3 March 18 vs Miami OH: W 14-7

IOWA HAWKEYES *PROJECTED* STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Friday) – Through five starts this season, Cade Obermueller has a 4.23 ERA over 27.2 innings, including 33 strikeouts to just nine walks. The one surprising number is that Cade has allowed 23 hits over his last three starts and is now giving up 1.01 hits per inning on the season. In the series opener against Michigan State, Obermueller allowed five runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings, including a pair of home runs. The good news is that his strike rate is still in a really, really good spot at 65.6% (244/372). Missing some more barrels will be the key going forward.

RHP Aaron Savary (Saturday) – Through five starts this season, Aaron Savary has been the best of the starts, posting a 1.86 ERA over a team-best 29.0 innings, including 32 strikeouts to 13 walks. Although his free base rate is about the same as last season (14.9%), he is giving up just 0.52 hits per inning. That being said, over his last two starts, Savary has seen his strike thrown rate jump to 66.7% (120/180). In his start against Michigan State, Aaron allowed two runs on six hits over a career-high 7.1 innings, including four strikeouts to just one walk.

RHP Reece Beuter (Sunday) – Through the first three weeks of the season, Reece Beuter was the best starter for the Hawkeyes. He suffered a rough outing at Rutgers, but bounced back against Michigan State, tossing 5.0 scoreless innings, including eight strikeouts to three walks and four hits allowed. On the year, Beuter has a 3.51 ERA over 25.2 innings, including 23 strikeouts to seven walks. His 67.1% (257/383) strike thrown rate is still the highest of the three Hawkeye starters.

OHIO STATE *PROJECTED* STARTING ROTATION

*Ohio State did not submit a starting rotation prior to the writing of this article*

RHP Chase Herrell (Friday) – Through five starts this season, right-hander Chase Herrell has posted a 5.74 ERA over 26.2 innings. Herrell has been the most consistent starter for the Buckeyes, totaling 23 strikeouts to ten walks, but ten of his 26 hits (38.5%) given up have gone for extra bases, including six home runs. Last time out against Indiana, Herrell was torched for nine runs on ten hits over 4.2 innings, including allowing three home runs. He did strike out five and walk zero.

RHP Ryan Butler (Saturday) – A starter last week at Indiana, the Liberty transfer Ryan Butler has appeared in three games, with two starts, posting a 6.75 ERA over 8.0 innings. He has struck out ten, but a 2.13 WHIP is concerning. Against the Hoosiers, Butler allowed two runs, 0 earned over 5.0 innings, including five strikeouts to one walk and two hits.

RHP Jake Michalak (Sunday) – A sophomore right-hander, Jake Michalak has made five starts this season, posting a 9.92 ERA over 16.1 innings, including 20 strikeouts to 23 free bases given up. Much like the majority of the pitching staff, both walks and hits have hurt Michalak. He is giving up 2.82 free bases+hits per inning. Last time out against Indiana, he nine runs, six earned on seven hits over 4.2 innings, including five strikeouts to four walks.

BUCKEYES PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 2B Tyler Pettorini – One of the top hitters for the Buckeyes last season, second baseman is looking to bat above .300 for the third consecutive season. Pettorini led the team in home runs (9), extra base hits (21) and RBI’s (49) a year ago. So far this season, he is slashing .350/.398/.650, with a team-high 28 hits, six doubles, six home runs and 23 RBI’s. Pettorini does not draw many walks, but is on track to finish with over 30 extra base hits and set career-highs for doubles and home runs. He has totaled multiple hits in nine of 18 games.

2. C/OF Matthew Graveline – A preseason All-Big Ten selection, catcher/outfielder Matthew Graveline was one of five regular starters to post an above .400 on-base percentage last season, while totaling 21 extra base hits. So far this season, Graveline is slashing .310/.388/.606, with 22 hits, four doubles, five home runs and a team-high 24 RBI’s. He has struggled with strikeouts, as his 29.3% strikeout rate is well above what he posted last season in 244 plate appearances (19.7%). Graveline has totaled 16 hits over his last ten games, including six multi-hit games.

3. OF Trey Lipsey – A fourth-year starter for the Buckeyes, outfielder Trey Lipsey has always been a solid on-base guy, posting a .461 OBP as a freshman and a .419 OBP last season, but he’s been especially good to start this season. Lipsey is slashing .328/.511/.484, with 21 hits, four doubles, two home runs, nine stolen bases and 25 walks+hbp. He has reached base in 17 of 18 games, including reach base 3+ times in 11 games.

4. SS Lee Ellis – A transfer from South Carolina, shortstop Lee Ellis has made an immediate impact for the Buckeyes this season. Out of high school, Ellis was rated as the #1 player in Maryland by Perfect Game but appeared in just 17 games for the Gamecocks last season. This season, over 18 starts, Ellis is slashing .318/.452/.636, with 21 hits, four doubles, five home runs and 18 RBI’s. He has 15 hits over his last ten games, including four multi-hit games.

5. OF Nick Giamarusti – A true freshman last season, outfielder Nick Giamarusti, along with Graveline is one of just two returning starters that posted an above .400 on-base percentage last season. This season, Giamarusti is slashing .214/.371/.393, with 12 hits, four doubles and two home runs over 17 starts. Although his batting average is down to start the year, his speed must be respected. He totaled 15 stolen bases and four triples last season, while he has stolen ten bases already this season.

6. RHP Nik Copenhaver – The Buckeyes coaching staff has gone with the redshirt freshman right-hander more than any other bullpen arm, with appearances in nine of 18 games this season. Copenhaver has a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings, including ten strikeouts to ten walks and 11 hits given up. After a couple of early rough games, Copenhaver has held opponents scoreless in five of his last six outings, allowing just one run on five hits over his last 10.0 innings.

MIDWEEK: at Illinois State (6-12)

On Tuesday, the Hawkeyes will go hop in the bus for their first midweek road trip of the season, traveling to Normal for a matchup against Illinois State. Picked fourth in the preseason MVC poll, the Redbirds return four of 11 players that started 20+ games last season. It’s been a rough start for ISU, currently sitting at 6-12 overall, but they do have wins over Oklahoma State and Ball State. The Redbirds fell to SIUE 14-12 in 11 innings on Tuesday and will go on the road for a three-game series with Belmont this weekend.

REDBIRDS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 1B Judah Morris – A preseason All-MVC selection and a sneaky pick to earn All-American honors, first baseman Judah Morris could very well be one of, if not the best hitter the Hawkeyes during this season’s midweek slate. A year ago, Morris recorded 34 extra-base hits, including 18 doubles and 14 home runs, while he drove in 50 runs. This season, it’s much of the same, with Morris slashing .333/.476/.778, with 21 hits, seven doubles, seven home runs and 22 RBI’s. His walk+hbp rate is up to 22.2%, reaching base 18 times via walk/hbp.

2. OF Daniel Pacella – A preseason All-MVC selection himself, outfielder Daniel Pacella is another name that would make the short list for best midweek bat that Iowa will face. He batted over .300 last season, tallying 18 doubles, 12 home runs and a team-best 61 RBI’s. This season, Pacella has been red hot, slashing .425/.488/.740, with 31 hits, nine doubles, four home runs and 19 runs scored. He has already totaled 11 multi-hit games and has 19 hits over his last ten games.

3. 3B Kyle Gibson – The third player of the trio that earned preseason all-MVC honors, third baseman Kyle Gibson is a new face for the Redbirds this season after transferring in from DIII Millikin University. A back-to-back All-CCIW First Team selection, Gibson has started all 18 games for ISU this season, At the plate, he is slashing .312/.365/.390, with 24 hits, two doubles, two triples and 11 RBI’s. He doesn’t strike out a lot, or walk a lot, putting the ball in play in 78.6% of his 84 plate appearances.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under at 3.5 wins for the week. It’s a slightly ambitious number, but certainly not unattainable. The first midweek road trip of the season is always tough, and Illinois State seem to give the Hawkeyes trouble. That being said, Rick Heller says if you want to be a regional team, those are games that you have to find a way to win. As for the weekend series against the Buckeyes, the OSU pitching staff is in a terrible position with their 8.90 team ERA going up against an Iowa offense that has put up 10+ runs in six of their last nine games. It’s a must-win series with how both teams have been trending, but a sweep would be a huge result still early in the Big Ten season.