Iowa Baseball Series Preview: #5 Oregon Ducks

WEEKEND SERIES: VS #5 OREGON DUCKS (38-13, 19-8)

We have reached the final week of the regular season, and the Iowa Baseball team is still in the hunt for their first Big Ten regular season title since 1990. Sitting with a 32-17-1 overall record and a 21-7 mark in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes hold a slim one game lead over UCLA in the standings. The Bruins are at home against Northwestern this weekend and will be a heavy favorite to win all three games. Looking back at last weekend, Iowa dropped the first two games of their series with #7 Oregon State in Des Moines, while Sunday finished in a 6-6 tie after ten innings due to the Beavers travel curfew.

LINK: Breaking down the Big Ten Baseball regular season title scenarios

This weekend, the Hawkeyes are set to host the 5th-ranked Oregon Ducks for a three-game series at Duane Banks Field with the Big Ten regular season title on the line. Iowa leads the all-time series 2-0, with both wins coming at the Springfield Regional in the 2015 NCAA Tournament. The Hawkeyes have a 5-5-1 record against former Pac 12 opponents under Rick Heller, including a ranked win over #18 Arizona in the Covid shortened 2020 season.

Under the direction of sixth-year head coach Mark Wasikowski, Oregon has amassed a 202-103 record, including back-to-back super regional appearances. This season, the Ducks have a 38-13 record and have been one of the hottest teams in the country as of late, winning 14 of their last 17 games. During that stretch, Oregon has swept #7 Oregon State and Washington, while they also have a series win over #14 UCLA.

Weekend Schedule at Duane Banks Field

Thursday– 6:02pm CT – FS1

Friday– 6:02pm CT – Big Ten Network

Saturday– 12:02pm CT – Big Ten Network

Offensively, the Ducks are one of the most powerful teams in the country, totaling 188 extra base hits, while they rank seventh in the country in home runs (96). In the Big Ten, Oregon ranks first in slugging percentage (.520), fourth in runs per game (8.1), fifth in batting average (.291) and fifth in on-base percentage (.409), while they are also fifth in stolen bases (70). The Ducks do not have a single hitter inside the top 15 in the Big Ten in batting average, but Jacob Walsh, Ryan Cooney and Mason Neville are all inside the top 25.

The Ducks pitching staff has been equally as impressive this season led by Friday night ace left-hander Grayson Grinsell. Oregon ranks first in the Big Ten in WHIP (1.25), second in ERA (4.03), second in hits allowed per nine innings (7.02), third in strikeouts per nine innings (9.0) and fourth in walks per nine innings (4.3). Their starting rotation, individually, ranks 3rd, 6th and 13rd in the Big Ten in ERA.

In games against the RPI Top 100, Oregon has an impressive 24-5 record, with the offense averaging 9.0 runs per game, while the pitching staff has given up 4.45 runs per game. The Ducks are 16-6 against common opponents of Iowa. Against those same teams, the Hawkeyes have a 14-6-1 record.

Oregon Ducks Last 10 Games (9-1)

April 27 at Oregon State: W 8-4 May 2-4 at Michigan State: L 2-0, W 13-5, W 3-1 May 6-7 vs Saint Mary’s: W 6-3, W 8-1 May 9-11 vs Washington: W 5-0, W 6-4, W 5-3

Oregon Ducks Last 10 Away Games (6-4)

March 29 at Ohio State: L 8-6 April 2 at Portland: L 7-6 April 12-13 at Maryland: W 5-4, L 12-2, W 13-3 April 14 at Georgetown: W 12-1 April 29 at Oregon State: W 8-4 May 2-4 at Michigan State: L 2-0, W 13-5, W 3-1

IOWA HAWKEYES PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Thursday) – Through 13 starts this season, Cade Obermueller is second in the Big Ten with a 2.52 ERA, totaling 99 strikeouts to 43 free bases over 71.1 innings. He has completed 5.0 innings in ten of his 13 starts, including completing 6.0 innings in five starts. It’s been a rough go for Cade as of late, posting a 3.58 ERA in just 17.2 innings over his last four starts. His strike rate has dropped to 58.6% over that stretch, including 18 free bases given up. If the Hawkeyes are going to have a chance to against Oregon, at the Big Ten Tournament or in an NCAAT Regional, Obermueller has to get back on track.

RHP Aaron Savary (Friday) – Through 13 starts this season, Aaron Savary is ninth in the Big Ten with a 3.66 ERA over 71.1 innings, including 79 strikeouts to 45 free bases given up. Savary has a 7-1 record this season, while Iowa is 10-3 overall with him on the mound. This past weekend against Oregon State, Savary allowed four runs on four hits over 4.1 innings, including five strikeouts to five free bases. That being said, in his three starts prior to OSU, Aaron allowed just four runs over 19.0 innings, including 23 strikeouts to five walks.

To Be Announced (Saturday) – This will be something to keep an eye on as the week goes on, as Reece Beuter missed his Sunday start against OSU with a “nerve issue that flared up Thursday during his bullpen” per Rick Heller. Beuter is fifth in the Big Ten with a 3.13 ERA, but his status, at the moment, is questionable, if not, doubtful.

If Beuter cannot go, left-hander Ben DeTaeye made quite the compelling case against OSU to get the start against the Ducks. He tossed 5.0 no-hit innings, including tallying seven strikeouts to four walks. On the season, DeTaeye has a 3.73 ERA over 31.1 innings.

Also keep an eye on right-hander Justin Hackett, as he could potentially get the start. He has really pitched well this season, posting a 0.56 ERA over 16.0 innings, including 33 strikeouts to nine walks and four hits allowed. Hackett was unhittable against Oregon State, tossing 3.0 scoreless innings, striking out seven of the ten batters he faced, throwing 33 of his 54 (61.1%) pitches for strikes.

Rick Heller also said that they will not hesitate to use DeTaeye and/or Hackett if the situation calls for it on Thursday or Friday.

OREGON DUCKS PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

***Based on last weekend’s series against Washington***

LHP Grayson Grinsell (Thursday) – An All-Pac 12 Honorable Mention last season as a sophomore, left-hander Grayson Grinsell is in the running for Big Ten Pitcher of the Year this season. In 13 starts this season, Grinsell is third in the Big Ten with a 2.53 ERA over 81.2 innings, which also leads the conference. He has tallied 85 strikeouts on the season and has done a great job limiting free bases, giving up just 0.37 free bases per inning. Opponents have not hit him well, as they are batting just .193 against him and averaging 0.67 hits per inning.

Grinsell can go very deep into games, averaging 6.1 innings per start, while he has gone 7.0+ innings in each of his last four starts, including a complete game against #14 UCLA. Last time out against Washington, Grayson tossed 7.0 innings, totaling eight strikeouts to one walk and just three hits allowed.

RHP Collin Clarke (Friday) – A sophomore right-hander, Collin Clarke was used as a bullpen arm last season, appearing in 13 games as a freshman. This season, Clarke has been weekend starter, posting a 4.06 ERA over 64.1 innings, including 58 strikeouts to 28 free bases. Opponents are batting .221 against him, averaging 0.81 hits per inning and don’t get much help, as Clarke is giving up just 0.44 free bases per inning. He has gone 5.0+ innings in nine of his 12 starts, including a season-high 7.0 innings on two occasions (Rhode Island, Minnesota). Last time out against Washington, Clarke allowed four runs, two earned on four hits over 5.0 innings, including four strikeouts to one walk.

RHP Jason Reitz (Saturday) – A transfer from Saint Mary’s, right-hander Jason Reitz has made a big impact on the Ducks staff this season. He has appeared in 14 games, with nine starts, posting a 3.25 ERA over 52.2 innings, including 55 strikeouts to 30 free bases. Reitz went through a bit of a rough stretch in early April, but has rebounded, allowing just two runs on seven hits over his last three starts (17.1 INN). Opponents are batting .225 against him and averaging 0.80 hits per inning, but just 28.6% of his 42 hits allowed have gone for extra bases, which the lowest rate of the Ducks three starters. Last time out against Washington, Reitz tossed 6.0 scoreless innings, tallying five strikeouts to two walks and three hits allowed.

DUCKS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. OF/DH Mason Neville – The nation’s top home run hitter, outfielder/designated hitter Mason Neville is going to be an All-American and is the scariest hitter the Hawkeyes will face this season. In 50 starts this season, Neville is slashing .322/.469/.831, with 59 hits, 66 runs scored, 59 hits, 15 doubles, 26 hits and 56 RBI’s. Not only is he an elite hitter, but he has drawn 55 walks+hbp to 50 strikeouts, owning a 23.1% walk+hbp rate and a 21.0% strikeout rate. Neville has tallied 15 multi-hit games and 12 multi-walk games. Over the past two weeks (8 games) he is batting .429, with 12 hits, six extra base hits and eight strikeouts.

2. 1B Jacob Walsh – A Pac 12 All-Defensive Team selection last season, first baseman Jacob Walsh is a solid defender and equally as dangerous as Mason Neville at the plate. One of three players to start all 51 games, Walsh is slashing .330/.446/.655, with 66 hits, 48 runs scored, 14 doubles, 17 home runs and 54 RBI’s. Much like, Neville, the power numbers don’t necessarily mean high strikeouts and low walks. Walsh has drawn 42 walks+hbp to 42 strikeouts, owning a 17.4% rate in both categories. He has totaled 23 multi-hit games and nine multi-walk games. Over the past two weeks (8 games), Walsh is batting .250, with eight hits, but just two extra base hits and eight strikeouts. Joseph Dzierwa got him for three strikeouts in the series opener in East Lansing.

3. SS Maddox Molony – An NCBWA Second-Team Freshman All-American last season as a true freshman, shortstop Maddox Molony has, once again, been one of the best hitters in the Ducks lineup. In 49 starts this season, Molony is slashing .313/.410/.570, with 56 hits, seven doubles, 13 home runs, 41 RBI’s and ten stolen bases. His 14.8% walk+hbp rate isn’t high, but his 15.7% strikeout rate is solid. Molony puts the ball in play in 69.5% of his at-bats, totaling 18 multi-hit games. Over his last nine games, Molony has been a bit cold, batting .148, with four hits and six strikeouts.

4. OF Anson Aroz – A part-time starter last season, junior outfielder Anson Aroz is enjoying the most productive season of his career, after he 50 hits and 32 RBI’s over his first two seasons with the Ducks. One of three to start all 51 games, Aroz is slashing .258/.404/.551, with 46 hits, 48 runs scored, seven doubles, 15 home runs and 47 RBI’s. Although he’s batting just over .250, Aroz is second on the team with 46 walks+hbp, owning a 20.5% walk+hbp rate and a 17.9% strikeout rate. Over the last two weeks (8 games), Aroz is batting .286, with eight hits, four home runs and eight RBI’s.

5. 2B Ryan Cooney – A starter on opening day last season as a true freshman, second baseman Ryan Cooney appeared in 47 games, batting just .203, but has made major strides as a sophomore this year. In 50 starts, Cooney is slashing .329/.430/.441, with 53 hits, nine doubles, three home runs, 41 RBI’s and a team-high 13 stolen bases. The least likely hitter in the Oregon lineup to strikeout, Cooney has a 9.8% strikeout rate, going down on strikes in just 19 of 194 plate appearances. Over his last 13 games, Cooney is batting .364, with 16 hits, five extra base hits and nine RBI’s.

6. RHP Cole Stokes – A sophomore right-hander, Cole Stokes has been the go-to arm in the Ducks bullpen this season. In a team-high 21 appearances, Stokes has a 2.89 ERA over 18.2 innings, including 35 strikeouts to 12 walks. However, he has been a bit wild, plunking 14 batters with pitches. Despite giving up 1.40 free bases per inning, Stokes has been basically unhittable, with opponents’ batting .127 and averaging just 0.43 hits per inning. Over his last nine outings, Stokes has a 0.00 ERA in 7.2 innings, including 14 strikeouts to seven free bases and two hits allowed.

7. RHP Seth Mattox – A transfer from California Baptist, senior right-hander Seth Mattox has really been relied on a bunch as of late, appearing in seven of their last 12 games, while his is second on the staff with 18 appearances. Mattox leads the team with six saves, posting a 2.70 ERA over 16.2 innings, including 14 strikeouts to eight walks. In his last seven appearances, Mattox has a 0.00 ERA over 5.2 innings, including four strikeouts to no walks and just three hits allowed.

Other Oregon names to know: 1B/DH Dominic Hellman (.289/.392/.535), 3B Carter Garate (.263/.387/.356), OF Drew Smith (.326/.440/.442), OF Jeffrey Heard (.274/.398/.429), C Burke-Lee Mabeus (.267/.395/.396), LHP Santiago Garcia (19 app, 4.74 ERA, 24.2 INN)

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the weekend at 1.5 wins. Surpass that and the Hawkeyes clinch at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title. On the other end of the spectrum, a series loss could put Iowa in a situation where they may need to win the Big Ten Tournament to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The implications of this weekend make it, arguably, the biggest home series in 35 years.

Although the Hawkeyes offense is averaging just 4.29 runs and 8.29 hits per game over their last seven games, playing clean baseball will be the big key this weekend. The pitching staff has given up 43 free bases over their last 64.0 innings, averaging 6.05 free bases per nine innings. Free stuff aside, the Hawkeye staff held Washington and Oregon State in check, allowing just 5.3 hit per game. Limiting free bases against Oregon will be the key, with the Ducks ability to slug.