Iowa Baseball Series Preview: #10 Oregon State Beavers

WEEKEND SERIES: VS #10 OREGON STATE BEAVERS (35-12)

Just two weeks remain in the regular season and the Iowa Baseball team enters this week with a 32-15 overall record and a 21-7 mark in Big Ten play. They still hold a 2.5-game lead over UCLA atop the standings, but are on their bye week, playing their final non-conference games this weekend. Looking back at last weekend, for the first time in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes lost a series, dropping two of three to Washington in Seattle. After losing in walk off fashion on Friday and Saturday, Iowa picked up an 8-0 shutout win to salvage the series.

This weekend, the Hawkeyes are set to host the 10th-ranked Oregon State Beavers for a three-game series at Principal Park in Des Moines. It will be the first time the two programs have ever met, while Iowa has a 5-3 record against former Pac 12 opponents under Rick Heller, including a ranked win over #18 Arizona in the Covid shortened 2020 season.

Under the direction of sixth-year head coach Mitch Canham, Oregon State has amassed a 211-99 record, including four consecutive NCAA Regional appearances. This season, the Beavers have a 35-12 record, including 30 games against RPI Top 100 opponents due to their independent schedule. OSU is 7-3 in games against common opponents, including single wins over Indiana and Rutgers, but they did drop two of three at Nebraska in early March.

Weekend Schedule at Principal Park (Des Moines, IA)

Friday – 6:35pm CT – BTN+

Saturday – 3:35pm CT – BTN+

Sunday – 12:05pm CT – BTN+

Offensively, the Beavers are a solid bunch that has plenty of power, totaling 173 extra base hits, while they rank 32nd in the country in home runs (73). In other categories, OSU ranks 50th in slugging percentage (.493), 66th in on-base percentage (.406), 89th in runs per game (7.3) and 100th in batting average (.288). Gavin Turley, Aiva Arquette, AJ Singer and Wilson Weber are all regular starters that have an above .300 batting average.

The Beavers pitching staff has been excellent this season up against the #33 SOS in the country. OSU ranks 39th in the country in ERA (4.56), 17th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.5), 20th in hits allowed per nine innings (7.81), 36th in WHIP (1.36) and 98th in walks per nine innings (4.39)

In games against the RPI Top 100, OSU has an 18-12 record, with the offense averaging 5.70 runs per game, while the pitching staff has given up 4.96 runs per game. The Beavers are 6-7 against Big Ten opponents.

Oregon State Last 10 Games (5-5)

April 21-22 vs Gonzaga: W 4-3 (12), W 8-3 April 25-27 at Oregon: L 4-2, L 13-1, L 3-2 April 29 vs Oregon: L 8-4 May 2-5 at Hawaii: W 11-4, W 3-2, L 5-0, W 7-3

IOWA HAWKEYES PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Friday) – Through 12 starts this season, Cade Obermueller is second in the Big Ten with a 2.51 ERA, totaling 94 strikeouts to 41 free bases over 68.0 innings. He has completed 5.0 innings in ten of his 12 starts, including completing 6.0 innings in five starts. Last time out against Washington, Obermueller sailed through 4.0 innings, with seven strikeouts, but shockingly gave up five free bases in the fifth inning and was pulled after just 4.2 innings.

RHP Aaron Savary (Saturday) – Through 12 starts this season, Aaron Savary is fifth in the Big Ten with a 3.36 ERA over 67.0 innings, including 74 strikeouts to 40 free bases given up. Savary has a 7-0 record this season, while Iowa is 10-2 overall with him on the mound. He’s been impressive in his last three starts, allowing just four runs over 19.0 innings, including 23 strikeouts to five walks and a 65.9% strike rate. Last time out against Washington, in a losing effort, Savary allowed just one run on three hits over 6.1 innings, including ten strikeouts to two walks.

RHP Reece Beuter (Sunday) – Through 12 starts his season, Reece Beuter is fourth in the Big Ten with a 3.13 ERA over 60.1 innings, including 66 strikeouts to 26 free bases given up. For the most part, Beuter has been everything you could hope for from a Sunday starter and he’s been particularly impressive as of late. Over his last four starts, Reece has allowed four runs on 12 hits over 24.0 innings, including 30 strikeouts to just five walks and a 64.7% strike rate. He tossed 7.0 scoreless innings in a critical Sunday win over Washington.

OREGON STATE PROBABLE STARTING ROTATION

RHP Eric Segura (Friday) – An All-Pac 12 Honorable Mention last season as a true freshman, right-hander Eric Segura will make just his third start of the season on Friday. Predominately a long relief option in the OSU bullpen, Segura has appeared in 12 games, with two starts, posting a 4.29 ERA over 42.0 innings. He has tallied 59 strikeouts (12.6 K/9), but has given up 31 free bases, as well as ten wild pitches. Opponents are batting .247 against him and have rarely hit for power, with just seven of 37 (18.9%) hits going for extra bases. Last time out against Hawaii, Segura allowed four runs, two earned on three hits over 5.0 innings, including five strikeouts to three walks.

RHP Dax Whitney (Saturday) – A true freshman right-hander, Dax Whitney was the Idaho Player of the Year as a senior at Blackfoot High School. He came to OSU as a three-time all-state selection and the #1 player in the state by Baseball Northwest. In 12 starts this season, Whitney has a 4.56 ERA over 49.1 innings, tallying 72 strikeouts (13.1 K/9) to 35 free bases. When he’s been on, he’s been good, allowing one run or less in six starts, but he has also given up 4+ runs in four starts. Last time out against Hawaii, Whitney allowed two runs on four hits over 4.2 innings, including seven strikeouts to three walks.

LHP Ethan Kleinschmit (Sunday) – A transfer from Linn-Benton Community College, left-hander Ethan Kleinschmit posted a 1.06 ERA over 78.1 innings for the Roadrunners last season. In 12 starts this season, Kleinschmit has a 4.21 ERA over a team-high 62.0 innings, including 75 strikeouts to just 26 free bases given up. Opponents are batting just .217 against him, averaging 0.77 hits per inning. Of all the OSU starts, Kleinschmit is the most likely to go deep into a start, averaging 5.1 innings per outing, including seven starts of 5.0+ innings. That being said, after posting a 1.61 ERA over his first six starts, he has allowed 3+ runs in each of his last six starts. Over that stretch he has a 7.31 ERA and is allowing 1.06 hits per inning.

BEAVERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. SS Aiva Arquette – One of the top transfers in the portal last season, OSU landed shortstop Aiva Arquette from Washington, and he has been the most impactful bat in a lineup that has several great hitters. One of two players to start all 47 games, Arquette is slashing .350/.475/.695, with 62 hits, 52 runs scored, 11 doubles, 16 home runs and 56 RBI’s. His 19.9% walk+hbp rate is better than his 16.3% strikeout rate, totaling 44 walks+hbp to 36 strikeouts in 221 plate appearances. Arquette has tallied 16 multi-hit games and has reached base in 40 of 47 games. You could make a strong argument that Arquette, along with his teammate in the next spot are amongst the top 6-8 best hitters that Iowa will have faced to this point of the season.

2. DH Gavin Turley – Equally as dangerous as Arquette, designated hitter Gavin Turley was a First Team All-Pac 12 selection and a Third Team All-American last season. He has started all 47 games, slashing .350/.471/.667, with 62 hits, 41 runs scored, 11 doubles, 15 home runs and 54 RBI’s. Nearly identical numbers to Arquette. Turley has tallied 20 multi-hit games and has reached base in 46 of 47 games. His strikeout rate is a bit higher at 21.5% over 219 plate appearances, but he still has a 19.2% walk+hbp rate. Turley needs just two home runs to reach 50 for his career.

3. C Wilson Weber – A veteran for the Beavers, catcher Wilson Weber is in his fourth year with the program, but just his first as a full-time starter. Coming into this season, Wilson had a career .241 average over 199 at-bats, but has been a solid hitter this season. In 42 starts, Weber is slashing .318/.403/.529, with 50 hits, ten doubles, seven home runs and 37 RBI’s. He has 14 multi-hit games and is coming off a weekend in Hawaii where he drove in five extra base hits and ten RBI’s over four games. He’s not a giant threat to walk, with just a 12.7% walk+hbp rate, but he does strike out a bit, with a 23.3% strikeout rate in 180 plate appearances.

4. OF Easton Talt – At his best, outfielder Easton Talt is one of the toughest outs in all of college baseball. In 45 starts, Talt is slashing .286/.484/.481, with 44 hits, 50 runs scored, eight doubles, six home runs and 27 RBI’s. Although he is sixth on the team in batting average, Talt leads the country in both walks drawn (56) and walk rate (25.7%). That being said, Easton has been in a severe drought as of late, going hitless in his last 25 at-bats, which spans over nine games. Miraculously, Talt has still reached base ten times over that span, while he has tallied 15 multi-walk games this season.

5. 1B Jacob Krieg – As close to a boom or bust player as Oregon State has in their lineup, first baseman Jacob Krieg doesn’t hit for a high average, but can hit the ball out of the ballpark. In 44 starts, Krieg is slashing .247/.349/.525, with 39 hits, eight doubles, 12 home runs and 28 RBI’s. Although he does have 20 extra base hits, he also has a 32.4% strikeout rate, going down on strikes in 60 of 185 plate appearances.

6. RHP AJ Hutcheson – The most often used arm in the OSU bullpen, junior right-hander AJ Hutcheson has totaled a team-high 18 appearances this season. Hutcheson has a 3.48 ERA over 33.2 innings, including 29 strikeouts to just nine walks. Opponents are batting just .200 against him, averaging 0.71 hits per inning. He’s got a deceptive delivery, going with a full submarine arm angle and it will be the first time Hawkeye hitters have seen a pitcher like that.

7. RHP Laif Palmer – Another bullpen arm to know for the Beavers, sophomore right-hander Laif Palmer has been pretty much unhittable when he’s been on the mound. In 12 appearances, Palmer has a 0.84 ERA over 21.1 innings, including 16 strikeouts to 12 walks. Although nearly 64.2% of plate appearances against Palmer end with a ball in play, opponents are batting just .147 against him, averaging 0.47 hits per inning.

Other Oregon State starters: SS AJ Singer (.323/.422/.402), OF Canon Reeder (.294/.395/.476), 3B Trent Caraway (.255/.303/.401)

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the weekend at 0.5 wins. This is not to say that the Hawkeyes couldn’t win the series, but Oregon State is a top ten team and in consideration for a national host seed at the NCAA Tournament. I think Iowa has the advantage in all three starting pitching matchups, but the Beavers bullpen is deeper than the Hawkeyes. Should Iowa make an NCAA Tournament regional, the Beavers are the caliber of team that will be hosting, so this will be a good test for Rick Heller’s squad. Sitting in 66th in the RPI, a single win this weekend would push them up around 60, while a series win would vault them into the mid-50’s. Either result should be considered a successful weekend.