Iowa Baseball Series Preview: Rutgers

WEEKEND SERIES: AT RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (5-7)

For the Iowa Baseball team, Big Ten play is starting earlier than ever before. The shift from a 24-game to a 30-game schedule means that conference play now begins after just a couple of non-conference weekends. Opening Big Ten play this weekend, the Hawkeyes will travel east for a three-game series in Piscataway against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Iowa leads the all-time series 13-9, winning 10 of the last 13 meetings, including a three-game sweep in Iowa City last season.

The Scarlet Knights are led by sixth-year head coach Steve Owens, who owns a 137-102 record since taking over in Piscataway. He has a pair of 30+ win seasons, including a 44-15 finish in 2022, but fell to 28-25 last season and missed the Big Ten Tournament. So far this season, Rutgers has a 5-7 overall record, including a series win over Kennesaw State to open the year. The last two weekends haven’t gone as well, with the Scarlet Knights going 1-6 against Grand Canyon and Coastal Carolina. They did pick up a midweek win over Delaware on Tuesday.

As for the Hawkeyes, they enter Big Ten play looking to get off to a positive start in the standings, after the three-week non-conference slate to begin the year went a little awry. Last weekend, down in Cleburne, Texas, Iowa dropped three of four games to Washington State, but won the series finale and tacked on a midweek win over Loras College on Monday. The Hawkeyes currently sit with a 5-6 overall record.

Rutgers Last 10 Games (4-6)

Feb 15 at Kennesaw State: W 7-2 Feb 21-23 at Grand Canyon: L 7-6, L 10-3, L 13-8, W 18-7 Feb 25 vs Saint Joe’s: W 12-6 Feb 28-Mar 2 at Coastal Carolina: L 10-0, L 6-5, L 6-1 Mar 4 vs Delaware: W 8-2

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

LHP Cade Obermueller (Friday) – Through three starts this season, Cade Obermueller has posted a 2.20 ERA over 16.1 innings, including 25 strikeouts to just nine free bases. The biggest development surrounding the start to his has been the free bases. Obermueller had a 21.2% walk+hbp rate last season, but that number has dropped to 13.2%, while he has thrown 63.4% of his pitches for strikes. Last week against Washington State, Cade allowed four runs, three earned on eight hits over 6.0 innings, including seven strikeouts to two walks.

RHP Aaron Savary (Saturday) – Aaron Savary will be looking to get back on track this week after struggling with his command a bit over the last two weeks. In starts against Stetson and Washington State, Savary has given up 12 free bases over 10.2 innings, but to his credit has still only allowed two runs. Still, his strike thrown rate in those two starts was just 54.6%. If Aaron can limit free bases, he will be hard to beat, as opponents are averaging just 0.37 hits per inning against him.

RHP Reece Beuter (Sunday) – Rick Heller said before the season that Reece Beuter was going to show marked improvement, but the former DBU transfer has been better than advertised. In three starts, Beuter has a 2.12 ERA over 17.0 innings, including 12 strikeouts to just four free bases. His command of his pitches has been impressive, throwing 69.7% of his 231 pitches for strikes. In the Hawkeyes series finale win over Washington State, Beuter allowed three runs, two earned on six hits over 6.0 innings, including four strikeouts to one walk.

RUTGERS PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Justin Shadek (Friday) – A redshirt freshman from Kinnelon, New Jersey, right-hander Justin Shadek was rated as the #14 player in the state by Perfect Game in the ’23 class. Through three starts, Shadek has posted a 9.00 ERA over 10.0 innings, including nine strikeouts to ten free bases given up. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, Shadek allowed eight runs, two earned on six hits over 3.0 innings, one strikeout to six free bases. He threw 48 of his 80 (60.0%) pitches for strikes.

RHP Landon Mack (Saturday) – A true freshman from Columbus, New Jersey, right-hander Landon Mack was rated as the #388 player in the country by Perfect Game in the ’24 class. In three starts, Mack has a 4.76 ERA over 11.1 innings, including ten strikeouts to six free bases. Not a great stat in favor of Rutgers, but Mack’s 3.2 innings per start/appearance leads the team. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, Mack allowed two runs on four hits over 3.1 innings, including four strikeouts to three walks. He threw just 41 of his 75 (54.7%) pitches for strikes.

LHP Preston Prince (Sunday) – A transfer from Niagara, left-hander Preston Prince appeared in 12 games with 11 starts last season for the Purple Eagles, posting a 6.10 ERA over 38.1 innings. Through three starts this season, Prince has a 7.36 ERA over 7.1 innings, including eight strikeouts to ten free bases. He has really struggled with his command, throwing just 46 of his 103 (44.7%) pitches for strikes the last two weeks. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, Prince allowed four runs on two hits over 2.2 innings, including four strikeouts to four walks.

SCARLET KNIGHTS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. OF Trevor Cohen – One of just three returning starters from last year’s team, outfielder Trevor Cohen started 50 of 53 games, slashing .324/.400/.406, totaling 67 hits, eight doubles, 30 RBI’s and ten stolen bases. He’s a tough out because he isn’t a huge threat to strikeout, going down on strikes just 25 times in 240 plate appearances (10.4%) last season. So far this season, Cohen is slashing .373/.439/.510, with a team-best 19 hits, seven doubles and five RBI’s. He has struck out in just 7.0% of his 57 plate appearances and already has five multi-hit games.

2. 1B Ty Doucette – A tough omission from the All-Big Ten Freshman Team a year ago, first baseman Ty Doucette made an immediate impact in Piscataway, slashing .321/.388/.566, with a team-best 13 runs scored, 11 doubles, nine home runs and 49 RBI’s. Despite showcasing considerable power, Doucette maintained control at the plate, with a manageable 16.3% strikeout rate. So far this season, Doucette is slashing .260/.321/.420, with 13 hits, two doubles, two home runs and ten RBI’s. He has a hit in ten of 12 games, including three multi-hit games.

3. OF Peyton Bonds – A transfer from Campbell University, outfielder Peyton Bonds has some baseball pedigree in his family. His father Bobby Bonds II and grandfather Bobby Bonds combined for 25 years in the MLB, while his uncle Barry Bonds is the MLB all-time home runs leader. Peyton earned CAA All-Freshman Team honors a year ago, slashing .267/.341/.427, with 40 hits, seven doubles, five home runs and 21 RBI’s over 36 starts. So far this season, Peyton is slashing .326/.426/.370, with 15 hits, six RBI’s and a team-best four stolen bases. He has recorded a hit in 11 of 12 games, including three multi-hit games.

4. 2B Nick Tomasetto – A redshirt freshman from West Deptford, New Jersey, second baseman Nick Tomasetto was rated as the #83 player in the state by Perfect Game in the ’23 class. After not appearing in a game last season as a true freshman, Tomasetto has immediately become a contributor this season. In nine starts, Tomasetto is slashing .324/.342/.568, with 12 hits, three doubles, two home runs and a team-high 15 RBI’s. He has three multi-hit games and recorded 7 RBI’s against St Joe’s.

5. OF RJ Johnson Jr – A former transfer from Gulf Coast State, outfielder RJ Johnson Jr started 35 games last season, before missing the final 18 games with an injury. When healthy, Johnson slashed .262/.382/.362, with 37 hits, six doubles, 25 RBI’s and 11 stolen bases. He did total 28 walks+hbp to 27 walks. This season, in 11 starts, Johnson is slashing .314/.442/.429, with 11 hits, two doubles and six RBI’s, while his .442 on-base percentage leads the team.

6. LHP Joe Mazza – A veteran arm in the Rutgers bullpen, Joe Mazza has appeared in 66 games over the course of his career, including leading the team in appearances last season (24) and finishing second (24) the season prior. So far this season, Mazza has pitched in three games, posting a 5.79 ERA over 9.1 innings, including 15 strikeouts to seven walks. He has raised his strikeout rate from 22.3% to 33.3%, striking out 15 of his 45 batters faced.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for the week at 1.5 wins. While Iowa sits at 5-6 overall after some close losses, Big Ten play offers a fresh start. Statistically, the Hawkeyes have performed better than their record suggests, which gives some optimism for fans going into conference play. The offense has had no issues setting the table but has not come through with clutch hits in some games, however, they have come around a bit, batting .552 (16/29) with runners in scoring position over the last two games.

Facing a Rutgers pitching staff that has a 5.92 ERA and 1.95 WHIP, the Hawkeyes should have opportunities to score. Over their past seven games, Rutgers opponents are averaging 8.43 runs per game. If Rick Heller can get another week of consistency from his starting rotation, the bullpen should have chances to close out some wins. I like Iowa to win two out of three in this series to kick off Big Ten play.