Iowa Baseball: Stetson Tournament Preview

The Iowa Baseball team is making their way back to Florida for the second weekend of the season to compete in the Stetson Tournament in DeLand. After opening their season in Tampa dropping two of three against South Florida, the Hawkeyes will be looking to rebound. This weekend, they will participate in a round-robin tournament, taking on Notre Dame, host Stetson, and UMBC. Let’s dive into the weekend preview, starting with a look at the projected pitching matchups.

Projected Pitching Matchups

Friday vs Notre Dame – Jr LHP Cade Obermueller vs Soph RHP Jack Radel

A 30-pitch first inning was likely not what Cade Obermueller had in mind for his opening day start against USF, but he rebounded very well and put together an incredibly encouraging start. Cade allowed one run on one hit over 5.0 innings, including ten strikeouts to just two walks. He threw 54 of his 88 (61.4%) pitches for strikes. His performance last weekend has me favoring the Hawkeyes on Friday against the Irish.

A starter as a true freshman last season, right-hander Jack Radel will get the ball on Friday for the Irish. He appeared in 14 games with ten starts, posting a 4.58 ERA over 53.0 innings, racking up 39 strikeouts to 19 walks. Opponents were able to total 54 hits against him (1.02 per inning), including eight home runs. Radel is going to induce a lot of fly balls, with 66.4% of his 113 in-play outs coming via the fly ball. He’s also a strike thrower, limiting himself to just 0.36 free bases per inning last season and throwing 65.1% of his 816 pitches for strikes. In his first start last weekend against North Florida, Radel tossed 4.0 scoreless innings, allowing one hit, while striking out four and walking one. He threw 45 of his 67 (67.2%) pitches for strikes.

Saturday vs Stetson – Jr RHP Aaron Savary vs rSr LHP Jonathan Gonzalez

As encouraging as Obermueller’s performance was, Aaron Savary might have surpassed him in his first start of the season on Saturday against USF. In the Hawkeyes lone win of the weekend, Savary allowed two runs on two hits over 6.0 innings, including 10 strikeouts to two walks. After allowing the first three batters of his outing to reach base, Aaron retired 18 of the last 19 he faced. He threw 56 of his 90 (62.2%) pitches for strikes, which just barely beat out Obermueller.

The Hatters welcome redshirt senior left-hander Jonathan Gonzalez back to the pitching staff after he missed all of last season with an injury. As a junior in ’23, Gonzalez appeared in 18 games with seven starts, posting a 4.13 ERA over 72.0 innings, totaling 91 strikeouts to just 17 walks. He held opponents to just 0.85 hits per inning, while he limited free bases, with a 9.1% walk+hbp rate. In his first start last weekend at the Puerto Rico Challenge against Penn State, Gonzalez allowed two runs on five hits over 6.0 innings, including five strikeouts to two walks. He threw 55 of his 82 (67.1%) pitches for strikes.

Sunday vs UMBC – rSr RHP Reece Beuter vs Fr RHP Sergio Droz

Making his first career weekend start in a Hawkeye uniform, Reece Beuter delivered a decent start on Sunday against USF. Beuter allowed two runs on five hits over 4.0 innings, including three strikeouts to no walks. Although he allowed a couple of solo home runs, Reece did not give up a free base and threw 46 of his 70 (65.7%) pitches for strikes. If Beuter can build on last Sunday’s outing, I like the Hawkeyes chances against UMBC.

For the Retrievers, they will be going with true freshman right-hander Sergio Droz. Out of Millville, New Jersey, Droz attended the same high school (Millville HS) as current LA Angels star Mike Trout and earned the right to wear his #1 jersey as a senior for the Thunderbolts. Although Millville went just 9-16 during his senior season, Droz earned All-Cape Atlantic League honors, posting a 2.06 ERA over 37.1 innings, including 44 strikeouts to 15 walks. Over the summer, he played with the Tri-Cape All-Star team, helping his team to the Carpenter Cup Championship at Citizen Bank Park, home of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-1) (27-25 in 2024)

71st Meeting: Notre Dame leads the series 41-28-1 (Last meeting 2012)

Last season, Notre Dame finished with a 27-25 overall record, including failing to make the ACC Tournament with a 9-21 mark in conference play. After making the College World Series in 2022, the Irish have missed the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons and were picked 15th in the preseason coaches’ poll. Notre Dame opened the season, taking two of three from North Florida.

Four Irish Players to Watch

1. SS Estevan Moreno – The Irish had three players reach double digits for home runs last season and shortstop Estevan Moreno is the lone returning player from that trio. As a sophomore, Moreno slashed .275/.363/.625, totaling 44 hits, 17 doubles, 13 home runs and 40 RBI’s. Although his power potential is high, he does have a tendency to have some empty at-bats, striking out 52 times in 190 plate appearances, for a 27.4% strikeout rate. Still, Moreno will be the most dangerous bat in the Notre Dame lineup.

2. OF Jared Zimbardo – A transfer from Quinnipiac, outfielder Jared Zimbardo made the move to South Bend after four seasons with the Bobcats. Last season, Zimbardo earned Second Team All-MAAC honors, slashing .353/.473/.579, finishing with 67 hits, 16 doubles, seven home runs and 34 RBI’s. He has some speed on the basepaths, totaling 26 stolen bases a year ago. Zimbardo lead the Irish with five hits during their season-opening series against North Florida.

3. 1B Connor Hincks – In his first season as a full-time starter last season, first baseman Connor Hincks made 51 starts at first base. He slashed .272/.336/.480, totaling 55 hits, 11 doubles, five triples, seven home runs and a team-high 45 RBI’s. Not afraid to swing the bat, Hincks had a 9.2% walk+hbp rate last season, as well as a 24.1% strikeout rate. His 55 hits ranked third-most on the team, accumulating 18 multi-hit games and 13 multi-RBI games.

4. OF Brady Gumpf – The leading returner for the Irish in terms of batting average, outfielder Brady Gumpf appeared in 48 games with 37 starts last season. He slashed .284/.352/.560, with 40 hits, 12 doubles, nine home runs and 31 RBI’s. Similar to Connor Hincks, Gumpf is going to swing the bat. He finished last season with a 10.1% walk+hbp rate over 159 plate appearances.

Stetson Hatters (3-1) (41-22 in 2024)

10th Meeting: Stetson leads the series 6-3 (Last meeting 2014)

Last season, Stetson finished with a 41-22 overall record, including a 20-10 mark in Atlantic Sun play. They earned an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, defeating Kennesaw State in the ASUN Championship and advanced to the Tallahassee Regional. This season, the Hatters were named the preseason pick to win the ASUN and are off to a 3-1 start, earning wins over UConn, Penn State and Missouri at the inaugural Puerto Rico Challenge.

Four Hatters to Watch

1. SS Lorenzo Meola – One of the leaders in a stacked Stetson lineup, shortstop Lorenzo Meola was named a preseason All-ASUN selection by the coaches after starting 62 of 63 games last season. He slashed .292/.388/.468, totaling 69 hits, 12 doubles, ten home runs and a team-best 58 RBI’s. Meola accumulated 22 multi-hit games and 15 multi-RBI games. He made solid improvements with his strikeout rate, lowering it from 22.4% as a freshman to 17.1% last season as a sophomore.

2. 2B Yohann Dessureault – As a junior last season, second baseman Yohann Dessureault put together the best season of his career, earning Second Team All-ASUN honors. He started all 63 games, slashing .296/.372/.491, with 68 hits, 12 doubles, 11 home runs and 41 RBI’s. Dessureault totaled 15 multi-hit games and 11 multi-RBI games. As he has gone through his career, Yohann has seen his strikeout rate decrease from 31.0% as a freshman to 21.5% last season, while his walk rate has increased from 5.2% to 9.2%. It is worth noting that he left the Penn State game at the Puerto Rico Challenge early and did not return for the last two games of the weekend.

3. 3B Isaiah Barkett – The top returning starter for the Hatters in terms of batting average, third baseman Isaiah Barkett was a preseason All-ASUN selection by the coaches. In 50 starts, Barkett slashed .309/.413/.407, totaling 60 hits, ten doubles, three triples and 29 RBI’s. He was second on the team with 16 stolen bases and became the first Stetson player to hit for the cycle since 2019. Barkett was not an easy out last season, striking out just 13 times in 230 plate appearances for a 5.7% strikeout rate.

4. 1B Jayden Hylton – A potentially underrated bat in the Hatters lineup, Jayden Hylton has made the move from the outfield to first base this season. In two years with Stetson, Hylton has a .257 average, with a .317 on-base percentage, including 85 hits, 18 doubles, 13 home runs and 60 RBI’s. The biggest hole in his batting has been his inability to draw walks and limit strikeouts. Through two years, he had a 9.7% walk+hbp rate and a 27.6% strikeout rate. In four games this season, Hylton has a team-high five hits, including two home runs and has drawn three walks for a .529 on-base percentage.

UMBC Retrievers (0-0) (27-25 in 2024)

First Ever Meeting: Iowa is 6-7 all-time against the America East (Last loss in 2004)

Last season, UMBC finished with a 27-25 overall record, including a 14-10 mark in America East play. The Retrievers advanced to the America East Tournament Championship game, but fell to Bryant. Uniquely enough, UMBC did not play during the opening weekend and will play their season-opener on Friday against Stetson.

Four Retrievers to Watch

1. 1B Leewood Molessa – A question mark health wise coming into this weekend, the Retrievers could still be without star first baseman Leewood Molessa after he missed most of last season after getting back surgery. Whether he’s in the lineup against the Hawkeyes, given that his status is questionable, will have a measurable impact on the matchup. As a freshman in 2023, Molessa was named America East Freshman of the Year slashing .293/.358/.576, with 67 hits, 15 doubles, 16 home runs and a single season program record 66 runs batted in. As dangerous as he is with the bat, he did strike out 78 times that season for a 30.7% strikeout rate. Molessa struck out or had an extra base hit in 43.3% of his 254 plate appearances. A true boom or bust bat.

2. C Danny Wyatt – With their top hitter out of the lineup last season, freshman catcher Danny Wyatt was one of the guys that stepped up in a run producing role. An All-MAAC Freshman Team selection, Wyatt slashed .308/.371/.577, totaling 48 hits, 11 doubles, nine home runs and 53 RBI’s, which was second-most on the team. A hitter with high-level bat-to-ball skills, Wyatt put the ball in play in 78.8% of his 164 plate appearances and had just a 10.1% strikeout rate.

3. OF Matthew Best – A transfer from Patrick & Henry CC last season, Matthew Best appeared in 51 games with 47 starts in the outfield. He slashed .258/.391/.432, finishing with 49 hits, nine doubles, six home runs and 36 RBI’s. Best did reach base 39 times via walk+hbp, but did have a team-high 55 strikeouts for a 23.6% strikeout rate.

4. SS Kyle Eddington – An All-MAAC Freshman Team selection last season, shortstop Kyle Eddington appeared in 48 games with 35 starts. Eddington slashed .280/.397/.305, with 33 hits, three doubles and 24 RBI’s. He finished with an admirable 17.8% strikeout rate over 146 plate appearances, but just three of his 33 hits (9.1%) went for extra bases.

Weekend Outlook

Set the over/under at 1.5 wins for the weekend in DeLand but lean towards the over. The margins were slim in the opening weekend for the Hawkeyes, and they very easily could have taken two of three, or all three from South Florida. Overall, the offense was productive but missed some chances with runners in scoring position. The starting pitching was very encouraging for the first weekend of the year, but the bullpen, which did have some bright spots, had some bumps and cost Iowa in two games. If Rick Heller gets similar performances out of his starting staff and the offense takes advantage of their opportunities, I like Iowa to come away with two wins this weekend.