Iowa Baseball Weekend Preview: Jacksonville State

WEEKEND SERIES: AT JACKSONVILLE STATE (4-7)

The Iowa Baseball team comes into this weekend hoping for a strong showing, as they have dropped six of their last seven weekend games, including two of three at Ole Miss. The Hawkeyes rallied with six runs in the ninth inning on Friday to earn a win in the series opener. However, the Hawkeyes starting pitching faltered the next two days and the Rebels came away with the series win. Up next, is a trip to Alabama for a three-game series against Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks come into the weekend with a 4-7 overall record. They opened the season by taking two out of three from Memphis, but have since lost back-to-back series against South Alabama and Kent State. JSU had this weeks midweek game at #15 Alabama postponed due to weather.

Jacksonville State Last 10 Games

Feb 17-18 vs Memphis: L 7-4, W 13-9 (10) Feb 20 at Samford: L 7-3 Feb 23-25 at South Alabama: L 8-6, W 9-3, L 11-1 Feb 27 vs Kennesaw St: L 8-2 March 2-3 vs Kent St: L 8-4, L 10-4, W 5-2

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING PITCHERS

RHP Brody Brecht (Friday) – Brody has shown improvement over each of his starts, dropping his walks from 6-4-2 over the course of his three starts. Only 23 of the 71 (32.4%) batters he has faced have put the ball in play, including just eight hits over 15.1 innings. Brody has struck out 33 of those 71 for a 46.5% strikeout rate. Last time out against Ole Miss, Brecht allowed one earned run on five hits over 5.0 innings, including 11 strikeouts and two walks.

LHP Cade Obermueller (Saturday) – For the first time this season, we will see how Cade Obermueller responds to some adversity. After puting up 9.0 scoreless innings to start the year, Obermueller allowed four earned runs on two hits and seven free bases over 4.0 innings against Ole Miss. He threw just 48.9% of his 94 pitches for strikes, which was well below his 57.2% mark through two weeks.

RHP Marcus Morgan (Sunday) – After dominating Ball State in his first start of the year, Marcus Morgan has struggled in his past two outings. He has given up 12 free bases and ten hits over his last 7.1 innings, which has led to ten earned runs allowed (12.33 ERA). The Hawkeyes need Marcus to get back on track, otherwise it puts a lot of pressure on the other two starters in the rotation.

The Key for the Staff: Attack the Jax State lineup – Through the early portion of the season, the Gamecocks have shown that they are susceptibile to striking out. They have a 25.7% strikeout rate and are batting just .224 as a team. On top of that, their .345 on-base percentage ranks 232nd in the country. If Hawkeye pitchers attack the strike zone, instead of working the edges, they should have success against the Jax State hitters.

JACKSONVILLE STATE GAMECOCKS PROJECTED STARTING PITCHERS

RHP Jack Hoppenjans (Friday) – A transfer from Shelton State CC, Hoppenjans appeared in 16 games with a 4.95 ERA last season for the Buccaneers. This season for JSU, Hoppenjans has appeared in four games, posting a 4.15 ERA over 4.1 innings. Since his first appearance against Memphis, he has allowed just one hit over his last 3.0 innings.

RHP Jackson Sleeper (Saturday) – Sophomore right-hander Jackson Sleeper has made back-to-back Saturday starts for JSU. He has a 7.71 ERA over 11.2 innings, including 13 strikeouts to seven walks. Opponents are batting .295 against Sleeper, with eight extra base hits. Last time out against Kent State, Sleeper allowed four runs on six hits over 4.2 innings.

RHP Austin Cornelius (Sunday) – Junior right-hander Austin Cornelius appeared in 23 games last season out of the bullpen for JSU, posting a 5.34 ERA over 32.0 innings pitched. Through four starts this season, Cornelius has a 4.76 ERA, but opponents have been able to barrel him up for 21 hits over 11.1 innings. He has allowed multiple extra base hits in three of his four starts.

The Key for Iowa hitters: Find ways to score against the bullpen – The Hawkeyes have done a good job against starting pitching through nine weekend games. They’ve scored 34 runs on 42 hits over 34.1 innings (8.92 ERA) against starters, but need to continue the production against opponents bullpens. Iowa has scored just 21 runs on 41 hits over 46.2 innings (4.06 ERA). Their strikeouts per nine jumps from 7.87 K/9 vs starting pitching to 10.43 K/9 against bullpen arms.

GAMECOCKS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 1B Derrick Jackson – The Gamecocks top returning hitter, Derrick Jackson batted .340 last season in 38 starts, including 16 doubles, 11 home runs and 37 RBI’s. Impressive numbers given the fact that he missed 19 games. This season, Jackson is batting .277, including five doubles, three home runs and 11 RBI’s. He’s not afraid to swing the bat, with a 23.5% career strikeout rate and just 33 walks in 353 career plate appearances.

2. SS Caleb Johnson – As a team, JSU has struggled at the plate with a .224 batting average, but sophomore shortstop Caleb Johnson has had a pretty solid start to the year. He’s batting a team-high .311, including three doubles, four home runs and 12 RBI’s. Last season, Johnson batted just .231 with 11 doubles and three home runs. He is a threat to strikeout, with a 24.5% strikeout rate over 60 career games.

3. 3B Brennen Norton – A dangerous hitter, Norton batted .279 last season, including 11 doubles, six home runs and 42 RBI’s. He racked up 16 multi-hit games and totaled 55 hits. This season, he is off to a slower start batting just .217, but five of his ten hits have gone for home runs. For his career, Norton has a respectable 15.6% strikeout rate, including just five K’s in 52 plate appearances this year.

4. C Bear Madliak – After spending his freshman year at Georgia, Madliak transferred to JSU for his rFr year last season. He started 46 games, batting .330, including 14 doubles, six home runs and 25 RBI’s. Bear racked up 18 multi-hit games and 66 total hits. So far this season, Madliak is batting .275 with 11 hits. His groundball rate has jumped from 42.9% to 51.6%, which is probably why he only has one extra base hit so far.

5. LHP Josh Sibley – As a true freshman last season, Sibley appeared in 13 games with an 8.64 ERA over 16.2 innings. So far this season, he has looked much improved. Sibley has appeared in six games, with a 0.00 ERA over 6.2 innings, including 11 K’s to just two walks and three hits. Last time out against Kent St, he struck out four and allowed one hit over 2.1 innings.

MIDWEEK: AT GEORGIA (12-1)

Opportunities like this on the midweek slate are few and far between for the Hawkeyes. In fact, it probably wouldn’t be too hard to argue that this is one of their toughest midweek games over the last 10-20 years. The Bulldogs are currently 12-1 overall, including a pair of wins over Georgia Tech. They are set to face Northern Colorado for a four-game series this weekend.

BULLDOGS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. UTL Charlie Condon – It’s quite possible that Charlie Condon is the best hitter the Hawkeyes face all season. That’s not because Iowa hasn’t faced or won’t face good hitters, it’s because Condon is that good. The preseason D1Baseball First Team All-American hit 25 home runs last season and has nine home runs in 13 games this year. He isn’t a massive strikeout threat either, despite his power. Condon had the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.7%) of the ten players that hit 25+ home runs last season. That number has dropped to 12.3% in 65 plate appearances so far this season.

2. 2B/3B Slate Alford – A transfer from Mississippi State, Alford batted .248 with four doubles, nine home runs and 36 RBI’s in 43 games a year ago. He has started all 13 games in UGA infield, batting .373, including 22 hits, five doubles, five home runs and 18 RBI’s. Alford has already racked up seven multi-hit games this season, after finishing with just 12 such games last season.

3. SS Kolby Branch – A transfer from Baylor, Branch started all 55 games for the Bears last season, batting .325 with 69 hits, 49 runs, 17 doubles, six home runs and 41 RBI’s. He was named to the Big 12 All-Freshman Team. This season, Branch has started all 13 games, batting .286 with five home runs and a team-leading 20 RBI’s. He has six multi-RBI games and hit two home runs against Stetson on Wednesday.

4. CF Dillon Carter – A transfer from Texas Tech, the Hawkeyes have seen Dillon Carter each of the past two seasons when facing the Red Raiders. In five career games against Iowa, Carter is 5/18 (.278), with three home runs and seven RBI’s. He’s batting just .167, but four of his six hits are home runs and he has a .438 on-base percentage. Carter has earned 13 walks in 49 plate appearances, which is notable, going up against an Iowa pitching staff that has given up 110 free bases over 105.0 innings.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under for this week at 3.5 wins. This is the beginning of a really important two-week stretch going into Big Ten play. Facing Jacksonville State and Western Illinois the next two weekends is a chance to start stacking wins, while the midweek against Georgia is a quality win opportunity. It’s not a dire situation for the Hawkeyes quite yet, but they need to get things rolling sooner rather than later.