Iowa Baseball Weekend Preview: Purdue

WEEKEND SERIES: AT PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (15-7)

Starting on Friday, every team in the Big Ten will be 0-0. All 13 teams will be looking to start conference play on the right foot and Iowa may be hitting their stride at the right time. This past weekend, the Hawkeyes swept Western Illinois, scoring 47 runs over the three-game series. The bullpen showed signs of improved control and that carried over into their 25-3 midweek win over Grand View. While the competition level will ramp up this week, Rick Heller and Co. have some momentum to build on.

The Boilermakers come into the weekend with a 15-7 overall record. They have not faced a very tough schedule, but took three of four against 2023 NCAA participant George Mason and split a four-game series with a solid Samford squad. Purdue lost to Illinois-Chicago in 14 innings on Wednesday afternoon.

Purdue Last 10 Games (7-3)

March 9-10 vs Albany: W 11-3, W 6-1, W 12-1, W 16-6 March 13 vs NIU: W 11-1 March 15-17 vs Samford: L 5-1, W 6-1, W 13-12 (10), L 11-10 March 20 vs UIC: L 6-5 (14)

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

RHP Brody Brecht (Friday) – For the most part, Brody Brecht has been solid on the mound for the Hawkeyes this season. He had a three-week stretch, where he allowed just two earned runs and walked nine over 15.0 innings. However, last week against Western Illinois, Brody walked six over 4.0 innings. Although he allowed just one run, 100 pitches meant his outing was over. Consistency continues to be the key for him and the entire staff.

LHP Cade Obermueller (Saturday) – It has been a mixed bag for Obermueller through five starts. Three outings with zero runs allowed, but two outings with a combined ten runs (six earned). He was at his best against JSU, going 5.2 scoreless, with nine strikeouts to just three walks. Against WIU, Cade allowed five runs, two earned over 4.1 innings, including three hits and six free bases. Last time Cade had a rough start, he rebounded well. The coaching staff is hoping that happens here.

Sunday TBD – I would expect this to be Marcus Morgan, but maybe it could be Anthony Watts? Last season, it was a week out of the starting rotation that allowed Marcus to reset and it could be time that for that again. Over his last four outings, he has allowed 19 runs on 20 hits and 17 free bases over just 10.1 innings. Watts looked good in his inning of work on Tuesday against Grand View.

The Key for the Starting Rotation – Get back on track – Although the Hawkeyes swept Western Illinois last weekend, the starting rotation did not have a sparkling display. They combined to allow 11 runs on 14 hits over 11.0 innings, including 17 strikeouts to 16 free bases. Three of those runs went as unearned, but still, way too many free bases. The Iowa offense won’t be able to put up 47 runs in three games this weekend, so the starting pitching has to be better.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS PROJECTED STARTING ROTATION

LHP Jordan Morales (Friday) – A grad transfer from Penn State, Jordan Morales has been the Boilers Friday starter so far this season. He has posted a 4.10 ERA over 26.1 innings, including 25 strikeouts to just five walks. Opponents have tagged him for 1.25 hits per inning and a .359 average on balls in play. Last time out against Samford, Morales four earned runs on nine hits over 3.0 innings. In State College last season, he held Iowa scoreless for 4.0 innings, including two strikeouts.

LHP Luke Wagner (Saturday) – After spending three years at Georgia, lefthander Luke Wagner transferred to Purdue and has gotten off to a fantastic start. Wagner has posted a 2.08 ERA over 26.0 innings, including 25 strikeouts to just six walks. Over his last 23.0 innings, Luke has allowed just one earned run on 19 hits. Last time out against Samford, Wagner allowed one unearned run on six hits over 6.0 innings.

Sunday TBD – The Boilermakers did not announce a starter for Sunday. They could go with senior righthander Kyle Iwinski or senior lefthander Jonathan Blackwell. Iwinski has started five games this season, posting a 6.55 ERA over 22.0 innings, including 15 strikeouts to five walks. Opponents are averaging 1.14 hits per inning, which has led to 2+ earned runs allowed in four of his five outings.

Blackwell has made five starts, boasting a 6.52 ERA over 19.1 innings. Opponents are averaging 1.30 hits per inning and batting .379 on balls in play. He has allowed multiple runs in three of his five starts, including seven earned runs against George Mason.

The Key for Iowa Hitters – Do not expand the strike zone – The Hawkeye hitters have done a good job of this over the last four games and it will need to continue this weekend against Purdue. The Boilermakers pitching staff is giving up just 3.58 free bases per nine innings, which means they know how to pound the zone with strikes. However, they are susceptible to hits, as they have given up 208 in 196.0 innings. The Iowa lineup has to stay patient and not attack out of the zone because they will get their fair share of strikes to hit.

BOILERMAKERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. 1B Luke Gaffney – A redshirt freshman out of Danville, KY, Luke Gaffney has made a big impact in the lineup so far this season. He is batting .405, with a .474 on-base percentage, including a team-high 34 hits, nine doubles, two triples, three home runs and 25 RBI’s. Gaffney has already racked 11 multi-hit games.

2. SS Camden Gasser – A transfer from Michigan, Camden Gasser has been a surprise after getting just 14 plate appearances for the Wolverines last season. Gasser is batting .418 (third in Big10), with a .540 on-base percentage (1st in Big10). He has racked up 28 hits and four doubles, while he leads the team with 19 walks drawn. Gasser will be a tough out, and when he gets on, he has ten stolen bases in 11 attempts.

3. DH Logan Sutter – A transfer from Folsom Lake College, Logan Sutter has brought an immediate power presence to the Boilers lineup. He is batting .352, with a .472 on-base percentage, including 12 doubles, five home runs and 25 RBI’s. Sutter has a hit in 18 of 22 games, including six multi-hit games. A year ago at Folsom Lake, he was named Big 8 Conference MVP, with 11 home runs and 69 RBI’s.

4. C Connor Caskenette – The catcher for Purdue, Connor Caskenette is batting .278, with a .386 on-base percentage, including four doubles, five home runs and a team-leading 28 RBI’s. He has also been a ball magnet, with a team-high ten hit by pitches.

5. LF Mike Bolton Jr – He hasn’t gotten off to a very good start at the plate, but Mike Bolton Jr is certainly a name to know. At .232, his batting average is lower than it has been over last three seasons, but when he gets on base, he is menace. Bolton Jr has 81 career stolen bases, including 28 in each of the last two seasons. He has the ability to get it done at the plate, combining for 11 doubles, nine triples and six home runs over the last two years.

6. RHP Jackson Dannelley – The top arm in the bullpen, righthander Jackson Dannelley has been the closer for the Boilermakers. He has posted a 1.83 ERA over 19.2 innings, including 23 strikeouts to nine walks. Dannelley has been tough for opponents to square up, averaging just 0.357 hits per inning and batting just .162 on balls in play.

MIDWEEK: AT ILLINOIS STATE (10-9)

On Tuesday, the Hawkeyes will go on their second midweek road trip of the season. This time, it will be a short trip down I-74 to Normal, IL for a matchup against Illinois State. The Redbirds are currently own a 10-9 overall record, including a midweek win over Indiana on March 13th. They will face Bradley for a three-game series this weekend.

REDBIRDS PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. DH Noah Rabin – The top power hitter in the ISU lineup, Noah Rabin is batting .338, with a .405 on-base percentage, including four doubles, eight home runs and 22 RBI’s. His strikeout rate is high a 26.5%, but Hawkeye pitchers have to be careful with Rabin.

2. 3B Luke Lawrence – The Redbirds are top 40 in the country in hits (214) and third baseman Luke Lawrence leads the team with 32 hits. He is batting .348, including six doubles, two home runs and 22 RBI’s. Lawrence has six games with 3+ hits and has 13 hits over his last six games.

3. CF JT Sokolove – One of three players to start all 19 games (with Lawrence and Pacella), JT Sokolove is second on the team with a .366 batting average. He has three doubles and three home runs, while he is tied for second on the team with 14 walks/hbp. Sokolove has eight multi-hit games this season. When he reaches base, JT is a threat to steal with 11 stolen bases on 11 attempts.

4. LF Daniel Pacella – As a true freshman last season, Daniel Pacella tied the freshman school record for home runs (16) and broke the freshman school record for RBI’s (56). This year, Pacella is batting .319, with a .457 on-base percentage, including five doubles, four home runs and a team-high 25 RBI’s. He also leads the team with 20 walks/hbp.

5. 1B Judah Morris – A doubles machine for the Redbirds this season, Judah Morris is batting .301, with 63.6% of his 22 hits going for extra bases. He has ten doubles, three home runs and 16 RBI’s. Over his last six games, Morris has nine hits and eight RBI’s.

FINAL THOUGHT

Set the over/under at 2.5 wins for the Hawkeyes. This is an important weekend for Iowa. Despite a rough go at times during the non-conference portion of the schedule, the record resets for Big Ten play. Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball said it best during the weekly chat with fans on Monday.

“Iowa is so far behind the eight ball from non-conference play, but if it rolled throughout conference, I could see the committee giving them somewhat of a mulligan to some extent for having a very difficult non-conf weekend schedule.”

That’s not an incredibly encouraging comment, but the Hawkeyes have their whole conference slate ahead of them to change things. After the Boilermakers, Iowa’s next two weekends come against teams with a combined 14-23 record. Starting with a winning weekend in West Lafayette would be a good start for Rick Heller’s squad.