Iowa Football Music City Bowl Opponent Preview: #19 Missouri Tigers

It’s bowl season for Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa Hawkeyes. They’ll head down to Nashville for the Music City Bowl, where they will go up against border rival Missouri for the first time since the 2010 Insight Bowl. It will be the 14th all-time meeting between the Hawkeyes and Tigers, with Missouri leading the series 7-6. This is the 13th consecutive season under Kirk Ferentz that Iowa has gone to a bowl game, with the 2020 Music City Bowl against Missouri getting canceled due to Covid.

Led by fifth-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz, the Tigers finished the regular season with a 9-3 record, including a 5-3 mark in SEC play. They finished undefeated in non-conference play, including a win over Boston College, while they picked up notable wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. Missouri suffered losses against #11 Alabama, #15 South Carolina and Texas A&M.

The Hawkeyes are currently listed as a 3-point underdog against the Tigers, marking the third time in four years that they will be an underdog against an SEC team in their bowl game. Over the last four seasons, Iowa is 8-2 against the spread when they are an underdog by less than ten points and 6-4 outright in those games. Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has a 10-11 record in bowl games, including a 5-6 record against SEC teams.

TIGERS OFFENSE

NUMBERS: 29.08 PPG (61st), 170.8 RUSH (55th), 219.9 PASS (76th), 390.7 TOTAL (61st)

The Tigers will be without a few key pieces on their offense, but fifth-year senior quarterback Brady Cook will line up under center for one final time in a Missouri uniform. In 11 games, Cook has completed 183 of his 289 (63.3%) passes for 2,248 yards and nine touchdowns to just two interceptions. Although his numbers aren’t as good as last season, his 0.7% turnover rate is third-best in the country amongst quarterbacks that have attempted at least 100 passes.

Joining Cook in the backfield are a pair of running backs that will split the carries. App State grad transfer Nate Noel has totaled 804 yards on 157 carries (5.1 ypc) and three touchdowns, including three games with 100+ yards rushing. The other half of the backfield duo is Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll. He has rushed for 578 yards on 134 carries (4.3 ypc), but has totaled 12 touchdowns, which accounts for 44.4% of the Tigers offensive scores. Carroll has three multi-touchdown games this season, closing out the regular season with three touchdowns against Mississippi State and two touchdowns against Arkansas.

At wide receiver, Missouri will be without superstar pass catcher Luther Burden (61 rec, 676 yds, 6 TD) who has entered the NFL Draft, while sophomore Brett Norfleet (26 rec, 235 yds, 2 TD) will miss the game due to an injury.

The Tigers still have talent at receiver, but will likely look to grad senior Theo Wease early and often. He has caught 55 passes for 809 yards (14.7 ypr) and three touchdowns. Sophomore’s Marquis Johnson and Joshua Manning have combined to total 31 receptions for 322 yards this season and will likely be the ones to garner targets as WR2/WR3. Also keep an eye on former three-star Daniel Blood (6 rec, 43 yds). Bowl season always has surprises and Blood may get some looks with Burden and Norfleet out.

Looking at the Missouri offensive line, per Pro Football Focus, the Tigers rank 6th in the country in run blocking grade (78.8) and 27th in pass blocking (76.8). They will be without two starting offensive lineman, including 2nd Team All-SEC tackle Armand Membou. Guard Cam’Ron Johnson (78.8) and tackle Marcus Bryant (74.3) will play and are solid players, but Missouri will be a little shorthanded.

TIGERS DEFENSE

NUMBERS: 20.08 PPG (19th), 133.8 RUSH (40th), 185.5 PASS (26th), 319.3 TOTAL (21st)

Although the Missouri offense will be without a couple of key players, the Tigers defense will be playing at nearly full strength. They will be without linebacker Chuck Hicks (34 tkls), but 14 of their top 15 players in terms of snaps played are expected to be available.

Up front on the defensive line, the Tigers are led by Second Team All-SEC defensive end Johnny Walker Jr. He has totaled 40 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks, while he leads the team with 37 quarterback pressures. Michigan State transfer Zion Young is the other prominent edge rusher, with 39 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and 23 quarterback pressures. Georgia Tech transfer Eddie Kelly Jr (14 tkls, 4.5 tfls) will see some snaps as well.

In the interior of the defensive line, grad senior Kristian Williams has totaled 28 tackles and 2.0 tackles for loss, while ranking third on the team in quarterback pressures (20). Florida transfer Chris McClellan has been impactful as well, with 38 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and 15 quarterback pressures.

At linebacker, Missouri will be without the aforementioned Chucks Hicks, but the top two tacklers on the defense are still in this position group. Miami FL transfer Corey Flagg leads the team with 76 tackles and 4.5 tackles for loss, while grad senior Triston Newson has 64 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and ten quarterback hurries. With Hicks out of the lineup, expect South Alabama transfer Khalil Jacobs (11 tkls, 2.0 sks) to fill that spot.

The secondary for Missouri is where eight of the Tigers top 16 snap getters reside, including the top four. Per Pro Football Focus, they rank 82nd in the country in pass coverage grade (74.1) and are just 109th interceptions (6).

At corner, Clemson transfer Toriano Pride (20 tkls) is their top man in coverage, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 22 of 40 (55.0%) passes his direction. However, when they do complete passes, they go for big gains, with those 22 completions going for 372 yards (16.9 ypr). Other names to know include Dreyden Norwood (32 tkls) and redshirt freshman Nicholas Deloach (20 tkls). Norwood is the only Mizzou defensive back with multiple interceptions.

The Tigers strength in the secondary is at safety, with four players in the main rotation earning a better coverage grade than any cornerback on the roster. Redshirt junior Daylan Carnell (44 tkls, 5.0 tfls) has been targeted the most, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 24 of 34 (70.6%), but has limited them to just 7.6 yards per reception. There will be a lot of rotation at this position, with sophomore Marvin Burks (61 tkls), grad senior Joseph Charleston (43 tkls), grad senior Sidney Williams (30 tkls) and senior Tre’Vez Johnson (20 tkls) all earning major snaps.

TIGERS SPECIAL TEAMS

Kick Returner Marquis Johnson: 16 returns, 357 yds, 22.3 AVG, LNG 63

Punt Returner Daniel Blood: 4 returns, 6 yds, 1.50 AVG, LNG 6

Kicker Blake Craig: 22/32 FG, 33/34 PAT, LNG 56

Punter Luke Bauer: 44 punts, 1,824 yds, 41.45 AVG, 12 In20, LNG 60

FINAL THOUGHT

We’ve seen it more and more over the last decade, where teams are just going through the motions during bowl season. Because of the College Football Playoff, bowl games have lost a lot of their shine, but Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes are generally not one of those teams going through the motions. They have an opportunity to end the season with a win over a ranked SEC team. In a game where many experts will pick Missouri due to their ‘SEC talent’, don’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes come away with the win like they did over #18 Mississippi State back in the ’18 Outback Bowl.