Iowa Football Opponent Preview: Northwestern Wildcats

It’s homecoming week in Iowa City and the Iowa Football team will be looking to get back on track after a disappointing loss at Michigan State. The Hawkeyes welcome the Northwestern Wildcats to town for the 86th all-time meeting between the two programs. Iowa leads the series 54-28-3 and has won four of the last five meetings.

The ‘Cats are led by second-year head coach David Braun, who piloted Northwestern to an incredible 8-5 finish a year ago. This season, things have not gone as well, as they enter this matchup with a 3-4 record, with wins over Miami OH, Eastern Illinois and Maryland. Last week, the Wildcats fell to Wisconsin by a final score of 23-3.

The Hawkeyes open as the 14-point favorite, but this matchup has been decided by less than ten points in six of last eight meetings. Iowa is 3-7-1 against the spread when favored by 10+ points against Big Ten teams over the past five seasons. Last year, Drew Stevens converted a lengthy, 52-yard field goal with 14 seconds to play, giving Iowa a 10-7 victory over the ‘Cats at Wrigley Field.

WILDCATS OFFENSE

2024 Numbers: 19.0 PPG (119th), 120.6 RUSH (103rd), 166.0 PASS (124th), 286.6 TOTAL (129th)

The Northwestern offense is led by Sophomore Jack Lausch who has started the last five games, after Mike Wright started the first two of the season. Lausch has completed 70 of his 138 (50.7%) pass attempts for 808 yards, including four touchdowns and two interceptions. His 50.7% completion rate ranks last in the Big Ten. Although his passing stats are well below average, Lausch has made up for it a bit with his running ability, accumulating nearly 200 rush yards.

Joining him in the backfield is veteran running back Cam Porter. The junior has rushed for 320 yards on 73 carries (4.4 ypc) and has five touchdowns. Sophomore Joseph Himon II is the other back that you can expect to see carry the ball. He has totaled 145 yards rushing on 33 carries (4.4 ypc) and has one touchdown. The ‘Cats rank 16th in the Big Ten in rushing and are going up against the Hawkeyes 29th-ranked rush defense in the country.

At wide receiver, Northwestern relies very heavily on the Bryce Kirtz/AJ Henning duo. The two have combined for 56.5% of the teams’ receptions and 57.9% of the targets. AJ Henning is tenth in the Big Ten with 34 catches for 357 yards (10.5 ypr) and three touchdowns, while Bryce Kirtz has 27 receptions for 414 yards (15.3 ypr). Look for junior tight end Thomas Gordan to get some looks his way as well. Gordan is third on the team with 14 catches for 155 yards (11.07 ypr).

Despite the struggles Northwestern has had offensively, ranking 119th in the country in scoring, the offensive line has played pretty solid football. Per Pro Football Focus, the ‘Cats rank 13th in the country in pass blocking grade (82.2) and 40th in run blocking (66.9). Offensive tackle Caleb Tiernan is the 8th-highest rated (78.5) lineman in the Big Ten and ranks second in the conference in pass blocking (88.1). He has allowed just three quarterback pressures in 235 pass blocking opportunities.

WILDCATS DEFENSE

2024 Numbers: 19.6 PPG (30th), 103.4 RUSH (17th), 246.7 PASS (105th), 350.1 TOTAL (56th)

On the defensive side of the ball, the ‘Cats are led by their linebacker play. Upperclassman backers Xander Mueller (43 tkls, 3.0 tfls) and Mac Uihlein (45 tkls, 3.0 tfl, 2.0 sks) have combined for nearly 20% of the team’s tackles. Those two rarely leave the field, but you will see senior Greyson Metz (15 tkls) a bit.

The Hawkeye offensive line will see plenty of rotation when it comes to the defense lineman they face on Friday. First-year defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle plays a bunch of guys up front, with nine different players logging at least 100 snaps. Aidan Hubbard (15 tkls, 3.0 sks. 19 pressures) and Anto Saka (12 tkls, 3.5 tfls, 15 pressures) are the top two guys. Former Wyoming transfer Jaylen Pate is third on the team with nine quarterback pressures and has totaled 11 tackles.

In the secondary, the ‘Cats have struggled ranking outside the top 100 in passing yards allowed per game. Junior Theran Johnson has been picked on as much as anyone in the Big Ten (44 targets), but has held his own, allowing a 50.0% completion percentage. That tied for the second-lowest completion rate amongst the 16 Big Ten corners that have faced 30 or more targets.

Outside of Johnson, the Northwestern secondary has been very poor, allowing opponents to complete 92 of 135 passes (82.7%) for 1,061 yards. Corners Evan Smith and Braden Turner have allowed 44 completions on 57 (77.2%) targets for 529 yards. If Cade McNamara (or Brendan Sullivan) can have some accuracy, there will be opportunities in the passing game for the Hawkeyes.

WILDCATS SPECIAL TEAMS

Kick Returner Joseph Himon II: 12 returns, 331 yds, 27.6 AVG, LNG 96

Punt Returner AJ Henning: 8 returns, 76 yds, 9.5 AVG, LNG 19

Kicker Jack Olsen: 10/10 PAT, 7/10 FG, LNG 46

Punter Luke Akers: 33 punts, 1,398 yds, 42.4 AVG, 15 In20, LNG 58

FINAL THOUGHT

It feels like the Hawkeyes season has reached it’s true turning point. Sitting at 4-3, any thought of slipping into the 12-team playoff is gone and so are any Big Ten Championship hopes. Now, we get to truly learn what Kirk Ferentz’s team is made of. Do they end the season strong and finish 9-3, or do they let things fall apart for a 7-5 finish? I’d lean towards them finishing strong, but that has to start with a win against Northwestern on Saturday.