Fearless Forecast for 2023 Iowa Football

When it comes to college football content, the month of July tends to be pretty quiet. Really the only news that pops during this month is usually either bad or related to recruiting.

That’s what led me to start writing a fearless forecast column on July 4^th in 2004. Frankly, I was just looking for something to write about and hoped it would create some discussions on the message boards.

Mission accomplished, I think.

I was always going to do a fearless forecast, but this felt like the perfect day to create a little fireworks on our site. This will be the first time we do it at our new home, at On3, so the place is different, but the format will be the same.

First, a few big picture thoughts.

I am generally more wrong than right with my predictions. Yes, I do tend to stick with my picks from this piece during the season unless something major changes for the Hawkeyes or their opponent. I remember driving more than a few folks crazy in 2015 picking against Iowa late in the year because I had said Iowa would go 7-5 that year. They went 12-0. That was my biggest miss since I started doing this and I think Hawkeye fans would agree that it was a good miss.

Last year I had the Hawkeyes going 10-2 in the regular season. Yes, I was proudly on Spencer Petras Island. Iowa finished up 7-5 in the regular season.

This year I have made the move to McNamara Mountain. I think Cade McNamara is part C.J. Beathard and part Drew Tate. He’s got that swagger to go with very good ability and that’s going to make a difference for the Hawkeyes in 2023.

Here’s what’s interesting, as many know, I pay attention to gambling lines. Depending on where you shop, Iowa’s win total is either at a juiced up 7.5 wins or in some places it’s moved to 8 wins.

I am firmly in the camp that believes this Iowa team can be pretty good. My only trepidation with this team is that they are going to be counting on transfers at several different positions and that can be a little scary. It’s not familiar territory for Iowa, so you wonder how it will go. By all accounts, the new faces have come in and fit like a glove, but it’s something you think about heading into the season.

One thing I know is that Phil Parker will have a fabulous defense once again this year and let’s remember, as bad as Iowa’s offense was last year, if it improves even slightly, they are going to add a couple more wins to their total.

Yes, I know someone will total up the points per game to see if it gets to 25. HA!

So, let’s get to it. Here’s our game by game look at the 2023 Hawkeye football team and our predictions.

SEPT. 2^nd – UTAH STATE – I’ve been a bit of a fan of Aggies head coach Blake Anderson. He’s dealt with some real life heartbreaks and still been a very good coach at Arkansas State and Utah State. Last year they finished 6-7, including a loss in their bowl game. But, they lost both of their coordinators after the season and only seven starters total returning this year. That’s a lot of change and that tends to show up early in the year. IOWA 38 UTAH STATE 10

SEPT. 9^th – @IOWA STATE – For the first time in the Matt Campbell era, the Cyclones hold the Cy-Hawk Trophy heading into the season. The question is will it be traveling back to Iowa City on the evening of September 9? My prediction is yes. There are still plenty of rumblings about the Cyclones taking a hit on the sports gambling suspension front, but the Hawkeyes wants this game and Cade McNamara will put together a 2015 Beathard type performance in the win. IOWA 27 IOWA STATE 17

SEPT. 16^th – WESTERN MICHIGAN – Change is taking place in Kalamazoo. The Broncos made a coaching change after last season and hired former Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor. He was an OC for only one year and beyond that, he was a position coach and run game coordinator. This feels like a risky hire and it’s a full on rebuild for them this year. IOWA 41 WESTERN MICHIGAN 14

SEPT. 23^rd – @PENN STATE – Nothing like opening the Big Ten season with a huge road game at Happy Valley. Yes, it’s also their “White Out” game. I think the NIttany Lions are going to be pretty good. I think their offense is going to be really good. Big believer in QB Drew Aller and their run game is going to be strong. Could be a higher scoring affair? Maybe. I think Iowa has a shot late, but fall short. PENN STATE 27 IOWA 20

SEPT. 30^th – MICHIGAN STATE – A few years ago, Mel Tucker had a magical season in East Lansing. Then last year, they came back to earth. The Spartans finished 5-7 last season and just 3-6 in conference play. There’s a new quarterback after Payton Thorne left and their leading wide receiver also exited the program. I didn’t think Tucker was a great hire when they made it and I think the one great year was just that. IOWA 30 MICHIGAN STATE 17

OCT. 7^th – PURDUE – I think most Iowa fans would have helped Jeff Brohm pack when he left for Louisville. The Hawkeyes did get him pretty good last year in West Lafayette to the tune of 24-3. Phil Parker finally solved his offense. In comes Ryan Walters as the new head coach and Grahm Harrell is running the offense. Hudson Card is the new quarterback and star running back Devin Mockobee returns. But, Iowa should have a happy homecoming against the Boilers. IOWA 28 PURDUE 10

OCT. 14^th – @WISCONSIN – I think the Badgers are the most interesting team in the Big Ten West. New coach in Luke Fickell and a new offense led by Phil Longo. Gone are giant offensive linemen and a traditional ground game. Now it’s Air Wisconsin? Maybe. We have seen transitions like this in the past and a good number end up not going well. I know a lot of national folks are on the Badger bandwagon. I am not one of them. IOWA 20 WISCONSIN 17

OCT. 21^st – MINNESOTA – I have been a long time non-believer in P.J. Fleck. Has he done well at Minnesota? Yes. Do I find him to be an odd duck? Also, yes. I’m not sold on their quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. I think their defense is going to be pretty decent, but the offense won’t be all that good. The streak of Floyd staying in Iowa City for the winter continues. IOWA 21 MINNESOTA 13

NOV. 4^th – NORTHWESTERN (@Wrigley Field) – We all know that thing have not gone well for the Cats in the last few seasons. In fact, it’s been pretty ugly since their run to the Big Ten title game in the shortened season in 2020. Quarterback play has been spotty at best and that’s led to poor results. But, they always seems to put together a big effort against Iowa. This one at Wrigley will be tricky and a struggle for the Hawkeyes. I always find one game that is a surprise result and this is it. NORTHWESTERN 17 IOWA 14

NOV. 11^th – RUTGERS – The first time around, Greg Schiano built a winner with the Scarlet Knights. This time around it really hasn’t gone as well. Last year after a 3-0 start, Rutgers lost to Iowa and only won one more game the rest of the year. Their defense could be pretty solid. That’s Schiano’s side of the ball. But, offense continues to struggle. Expect turnovers and for Iowa to capitalize. IOWA 27 RUTGERS 10

NOV. 18^th – ILLINOIS – Let’s hope that this year’s battle between the Hawkeyes and the Illini is nothing like the 9-6 boring game last year in Champaign. Having said that, Bret Bielema has done what he said he would do and built a winner. The Illini won eight games last year. They have a solid group on defense returning, but the offense will be a work in progress. Senior day win for the Hawkeyes. IOWA 31 ILLINOIS 14

NOV. 24^th – @NEBRASKA – The Cornhuskers got Iowa last year. It had been a while, but their Black Friday rival won the final game of the regular season. Nebraska has a new head coach in Matt Ruhle and of course, their fans are fired up that the program will be back on top in short order. But, it’s going to take some time, IMHO. Jeff Sims will be an interesting quarterback, but their offensive line is a question mark. Also the defense just hasn’t been great. Can that all be fixed quickly? IOWA 24 NEBRASKA 20

So that puts Iowa at 10-2 overall and 7-2 in Big Ten play. That’s above the 7.5 or 8 win total that Vegas has posted, so if you are interested in those sort of things, you know what to do. I also believe that 7-2 will mean a trip to the Big Ten title game. This is the final year of divisions, so getting to Indianapolis in the future will be much more difficult. Of course, they will likely be playing Michigan or Ohio State. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see Cade McNamara against his old school or his old rival?

I’d likely pick the Big Ten East rep to win in Indy and then I would expect Iowa to be likely head to Tampa since they played in Orlando a couple of years ago. As much as Iowa has been to Tampa for the Old Outback Bowl, now known as the ReliaQuest Bowl, Iowa hasn’t been there since the 2018 season. Time for a trip back to see an old friend in Tampa.