Tuesdays with Torbee

The word “weird” has seen a big resurgence this year, particularly in the political world. I’m not going to touch that third-rail topic with a ten-foot poll, but it is noteworthy to me that “weird” is also an apt description for where Iowa football finds itself heading into 2024.

The Big 10 now features 18 teams and stretches from Raritan Bay in New Jersey to Union Bay in Seattle.

The Hawkeyes will play a Big 10 road game against UCLA in the Rose Bowl.

For the first time in more than two decades, someone other than Kirk Ferentz or Hayden Fry will be roaming the sidelines with a headset as head coach in the season opener.

Players are paid, anyone can transfer at any time (I think?) and there is a legitimate 12-team playoff waiting at the end of the season.

Whew.

Iowa’s program itself could be described as weird – featuring the widest performance gap of perhaps any college team in recent memory between its offense and defense. Once again, the defensive side of the ball is expected to be among the best in the country. And once again, expectations are rock bottom for what has been the sport’s paltriest offense, although with new leadership comes the spark of hope.

You’d be hard-pressed to find another program whose fans are as uncertain and skeptical about their team’s prospects coming off two conference championship game appearances in the past three years. But the Hawkeyes got defenestrated in both those championship games and lost its bowl showdown with Tennessee in ignominious fashion, sucking almost any joy out of what was otherwise a worthy regular season campaign.

Iowa fans expect their program to at least be competitive against the blue bloods of college football, but playing with one hand tied behind its back due to a complete lack of offensive threat has meant too many non-competitive contests with the Michigan and Penn States of the sport. Despite notching 10 wins, those two programs combined to put up 57 points to punchless Iowa’s 0 last season in a pair of blowouts.

Good but not great is one thing. Good enough to beat up on inferior foes but completely unable to be competitive with Top 20 teams is simply not acceptable to Iowa fans.

Will the shakeup on offense with the addition of new offensive coordinator Tim Lester and a new approach on that side of the ball help Iowa make up the gap between itself and the cream of the crop? That’s what the 2024 season is going to tell us, and I expect it to be a fascinating experiment.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

Should wins

• Illinois State – Even with Ferentz and assistant coach John Budamyr sidelined, this *should* be a relatively stress-free opener against a pretty good FCS squad. Of course, the last time Iowa played an early season game against an FCS squad from nearby, it eeked out an ugly 7-3 victory over South Dakota State in 2022, in what was to be a harbinger of two seasons worth of putrid offensive output. Please, don’t repeat that.
  
• Troy – I mean, it’s just one guy, how hard can it be? In all seriousness though, Troy is likely a step up in competition from Illinois State, but Iowa at home should still be able to handily defeat a Sun Belt Conference squad. Sure would be nice to see Iowa pile up some points.
  
• Iowa State – Many will probably quibble with me on this being a “should win” instead of a “tossup” but I just am not that impressed with this version of the Cyclones. Iowa pushed them around pretty well last year in Ames, despite being anemic offensively. I don’t see how Iowa State musters any more points than the 13 it scored in Ames last year, and that won’t be enough for them to get the job done inside Kinnick. I am predicting this to be an eye-opening win that gets Iowa fans dreaming big.
  
• Northwestern – The Wildcats were one of the feel-good stories of last year’s season, overcoming the loss of their coach and much adversity en route to a surprise 7-5 record and a bowl win. Good vibes won’t help them in Iowa City, however. This will probably be the usual white-knuckle affair, but Iowa should enjoy homecoming.
  
• Michigan State – The Spartans were not a feel-good story last year and are in the midst of a fairly extensive rebuild. There is some trepidation with this being a road game, but Iowa should be the stronger team on both lines, so I expect the Hawkeyes to get it done in East Lansing.

• Washington – Wait just a second. Iowa SHOULD win against a team that made it to the National Championship last year?! This one might be a bit of a stretch, but with a new coach and predominantly new roster and facing a tough cross-country trip to a hostile environment, I think Iowa wins this one.

Toss Ups

• Minnesota – I wanted to put this one into the sure-win category after last season’s asterisk loss due to dumb officiating, but I think PJ Fleck has a pretty solid team this year and Iowa has sometimes struggled up in the new Gopher stadium. Being earlier in the year rather than later makes me think Iowa takes the revenge win here, but I’d still call it a toss-up.
  
• Wisconsin – Formerly the game that often decided the Winner of the West, this is back to being a grudge match for the bronze bull. I like Iowa’s chances at home, but Bucky knows how to grind with Iowa. Classic toss up game
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• Nebraska – One of these years, the dummies from Nowledge U will actually get the breaks and bounces. Sure hope it’s not this season, but the magic run will not last forever, unfortunately.
  
• UCLA and Maryland – Frankly, I think Iowa has a better roster than both these teams – particularly Maryland. But long road trips have been notoriously difficult for Kirk Ferentz-led teams to handle, so either of these could end up in the loss column.

Need a miracle

• Ohio State – The Buckeyes look to be back to Big 10 Death Star level and Iowa has played well in Columbus I think twice in my 25-plus years of fandom. I really don’t see a win here, at all.

If – and of course it’s an unknowable, big if here on August 27 – Iowa can muster even a slightly below average offense, there is no reason it can’t win 10 to 11 of these games. Will they? Hard to say. I like the way the offensive line appears to be coming together, the running back room is super strong and there is an actual capable backup quarterback that has had some success in the Big 10 on the roster. On paper, Iowa should be able to at least muster enough yards and points to allow its all-world defense to put it in a position to win every game on the schedule. The Hawkeyes will need special teams to shine again as well – and it appears to be in great shape with another cannon-legged punter, an accurate placekicker and one of the best special teams coaches in the country at the helm.

My official prediction is 9-3 and just missing out on a third-straight conference championship appearance, meaning the Hawks will be on the outside-looking-in when the inaugural 12-team playoff cohort is announced.

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