Question of the week: Iowa's path to an upset in Columbus?

The question that Iowa fans are asking themselves this week is can the Hawkeyes shock the world and upset the Buckeyes on the road in Columbus?

Hawkeye backers believe it’s possible because they saw it in 2017 when Iowa upset Ohio State in Iowa City, 55-24. Of course, two years ago when the Hawkeyes traveled to Columbus, it was a massive beating by the Buckeyes to the tune of 54-10.

Which brings us to the question of the week, what is the path for Iowa to pull an upset at 20-point underdogs this weekend at Ohio State?

The Hawkeye Report staff gives their thoughts.

KYLE HUESMANN: There are two games during the (somewhat) recent Kirk Ferentz era that stand out to me as ones that I cannot really explain what transpired offensively for the Hawkeyes. The ’17 game against Ohio State is one, and the ’19 Holiday Bowl against USC is the other one. Fortunately, my blueprint for Iowa winning on Saturday does not include them scoring 55 points because quite frankly I think the Buckeyes would have to get an early red card and play 10v11 for that to happen.

On the offensive side of the ball, this is a chance for Kaleb Johnson, the Ohio native, to firmly place himself in the Heisman Trophy conversation. The Hawkeyes have to be able to successfully run the ball and that starts with Kaleb Johnson. That can’t be all though, Cade McNamara has to have his best game since he joined Iowa. That doesn’t necessarily mean throwing touchdowns with Jack Sawyer hanging onto his leg like Stanley did with Hubbard in ’17, but he has to be efficient. Cade has to be able to complete the easy ones on early downs and extend some drives with some tougher completions. I’d also like to see Tim Lester get the ok from Kirk Ferentz to throw in some wrinkle plays, just to see if you can break something big. The most important thing will be avoiding multiple quick three and out drives. Remember in ’22 when the defense held their own early, but the offense averaged 3.9 plays per drive in the first half? That can’t happen on Saturday, and they also can’t turn it over like they did in that game (6 TO’s).

On the defensive side of the ball, my biggest concern is giving up big plays. Iowa State and Troy were both able to hit some big passing plays, and with all due respect, especially to ISU because they are still undefeated, but they just don’t have the talent that Ohio State does at wide receiver or running back. The Hawkeyes cannot give up chunk plays and allow the Buckeyes to move down the field quickly. The other thing they have to do is tackle in space. A three-yard run can’t become a 12-yard run for Quinshon Judkins or any other player. To me, the two biggest keys for Iowa will be defensive line play and forcing turnovers. Deontae Craig, Aaron Graves, Max Llewellyn, Ethan Hurkett and the rest of that group need to force some negative plays for the OSU run game and passing game. Then there’s the turnover battle. Iowa won it 4-0 in the win in ’17 and lost it 6-2 in the ’22 loss. I don’t think it has to be as stark as the ’17 game was, but the Hawkeyes will need to force a turnover or two that leads to points.

It’s going to take a near perfect effort from Iowa to pull off the upset in Columbus, but I think Hawkeye fans are just hoping to have a shot going into the fourth quarter. Run the ball, shorten the game, force a turnover or two and you might just be able to get to the fourth quarter in a close game.

DENNIS SCHEIDT: In 2017, none of us can forget that the game started on an electrifying pick 6 by Amani Hooker. Kinnick Stadium, of course, erupted into a frenzy that never died. But, that happened because the offense was also electrifying on the arm of Nate Stanley, and the legs of Akrum Wadley. Along with Hooker’s interception, Josh Jackson picked off JT Barrett twice during the game. Iowa frustrated the heck out of the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball that day.

To me, it’s that same hindsight that will need to be repeated. Iowa will need some huge plays from the defense to force turnovers and, hopefully, a short field. And if that doesn’t happen, perhaps something electrifying from Kaden Wetjen with a punt return or a fake field goal attempt. It feels like Kaleb Johnson isn’t going to need any more motivation to make a statement in this game and I predict he will break 100 yards rushing.  But I do believe the passing game will need to come alive and effectively balance out the offensive attack. Cade McNamara will need his best day as an Iowa QB both efficiently and statistically. He can dink and dunk whatever the Buckeye D gives him. He will need to spread the ball around to his playmakers in Luke Lachey, Addison Ostrenga, Kaleb Brown and Jacob Gill.  But the offense will also need to counter the Buckeyes speed on defense with some pass plays or misdirectional plays designed for the crafty Wetjen. Dayton Howard honestly looks like a prototypical Buckeye WR. He’s long and athletic. Somehow Iowa needs to pull some surprises with him and try to get him involved in some mismatches. Maybe this is where the deep balls go on post routes? Defensively, the Hawks must focus on making clean tackles without giving up long YACs. This will be essential up front, in the middle, and on the back end. The DL will need to be as physical as ever and are going to have to get pressure on QB Will Howard early and get Ohio State frustrated. Iowa needs to land some punches right in the chops. The Hawkeyes will need to keep their outstanding pace on clean football. Let Ohio State make the dumb penalties. 

The Hawks will need an early spark from somewhere to get traction and, more importantly, the confidence required to beat the Buckeyes. If the Buckeyes build an early 14 point lead, it could be a long day.  They’ll certainly have to make adjustments sooner than the halftime locker room. But, look here. If Kirk Ferentz can defeat Urban Meyer by a mile, he can surely beat Ryan Day on a walk-off FG. Keep the faith. 

TANNER LAFEVER: I won’t make this too complicated. To most realistically be in position pull an upset in Columbus on Saturday, Iowa needs to excel at Iowa football – which means it probably wouldn’t look a ton like what we saw back in 2017.

For context, that 31-point shellacking seven years ago include the following:

• three Ohio State touchdowns of 22 or more yards (22, 29 and 44)
• a pick-six from Amani Hooker amidst a +4 overall turnover margin for the Hawkeyes
• a Nate Stanley TD pass to TJ Hockenson with future NFL defensive end Sam Hubbard hanging onto his left leg
• future NFL Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa was ejected for targeting in the 2^nd quarter with the score tied at 17-all, prolonging a drive that would’ve otherwise ended in a punt from the 40-yard line
• a polecat fake FG which led to another Iowa TD
• runs of 30+ yards by three different Hawkeye running backs (A. Wadley, J. Butler, T. Young)

Are many of those events likely to be replicable this go-around? Heck no.

Then again, they don’t have to be. Iowa won that game by 31 points, remember?

Offensive coordinator Tim Lester spoke at length during his bye week press conference about the developing Iowa passing game, the improvements he’s seeing (even if some fans aren’t) and the importance of the two weeks between Minnesota and Ohio State for that side of the ball to make major strides as the Hawkeyes enter the thick of Big Ten play.

I think Iowa will need to be good enough through the air this week – particularly in the early going – to make a Buckeye defense pay that will surely enter this game geared up to stop Kaleb Johnson. That doesn’t mean completing a bunch of 30+ yard passes to ‘take the top off’ the OSU defense (Iowa’s longest completion back in 2017 was just 25 yards, BTW), but connecting in key situations to either move and/or stay in front of the chains offensively.

Do that, feed Kaleb Johnson another 25+ times and be efficient on trips to the redzone – which has been the case since Iowa installed its package for Brendan Sullivan post-Cy-Hawk game.

Defensively, shore up the big pass plays that have bit Phil Parker’s unit on a few more occasions than he’d like through four games. Ohio State has enough talent at its disposal – no need to give the Buckeyes any uncontested scores in this one. OSU starting QB Will Howard (a Kansas State transfer) has thrown 27 INT’s in 38 career games. The more contested completions Iowa can force him to attempt to make the more likely their odds of generating a turnover or two.

I don’t think Iowa needs to be plus-four in turnover margin as it was in 2017 to win this game, but a plus-one or plus-two advantage would go a long way toward springing the upset.

Do those things on offense/defense, win the special teams battle (polecat or not) and the Hawkeyes will be in the game in its latter stages with a chance to spring another monumental upset.

However it plays out from there, I’m sure most Iowa fans would be happy to ‘roll the dice’ and find out.

BLAIR SANDERSON: Call me a pessimist, but the game that is more fresh in my memory since the one is at Columbus is 2022 when Iowa went in as a 29.5 point underdog and lost by 44 points. That game, like this one, was also coming off a bye week for the Hawkeyes for what it’s worth. Overall, Kirk Ferentz is 10-12 coming off a bye week and only 4-11 on the road. But I think the blueprint is pretty straight forward with the success the running game has had this year. Try to control the clock, keep Ohio State’s offense off the field as much as possible, create a couple turnovers, make a play or two on special teams, and limit your own mistakes. If they can do all that and keep it a close game into the second half, you never know what will happen.

TOM KAKERT: I’ve seen some interesting game in this series since starting on the Iowa beat. I saw Nate Kaeding scoring on a fake field goal in 2003. I saw DJK nearly help Iowa pull off an upset in 2009 with James Vandenberg at quarterback. I saw Jake Duzey catch a long pass in 2013. And I saw a game that would have been stopped if it were a boxing match two years ago. The final was 54-10 and it wasn’t even that close.

Basically, I have seen a lot of different games in Columbus. But, those earlier games were against a very different coaching staff that played in the hands of Kirk Ferentz. Ryan Day doesn’t play that way. His foot is going to be on the gas.

What’s Iowa’s path to an upset? Control the clock. Make the game shorter. Ohio State’s offense can score if they are on the sidelines. Kaleb Johnson has to be the best player on the field. Cade McNamara has to make a few plays and avoid turnovers. Iowa probably has to be at least +2 in the turnover battle. On defense, Iowa can’t give up big plays. If the Hawkeyes can keep this game in the lower 20’s then they can make this interesting. We have seen Iowa drag good teams in the deep water in the past and see if they can swim. If they can do that again, they have a shot.