Iowa NCAA Wrestling Preview

It’s go-time people.

Late March is upon us.

Mother Nature can’t decide whether she’s going to plunge the Midwest immediately into summer or instead extend the winter season by another few weeks just for kicks.

You’ve either filed your taxes already, or like me, you’re waiting to brush up against the April 15^th deadline because in some sick way it makes you feel a little more alive…

You’ve either just gotten back from a spring break that was nowhere near as fun as you’d imagined it to be, or you stayed at home and saw a bunch of social media posts from others whose spring breaks were also nowhere near as fun as they’re making them out to have been.

These are the unyielding truths of this time of year.

Of course, standing atop them all is one other annual occurrence – this one unique in that it seemingly never fails to live up to expectations.

The NCAA Division I Wrestling Championships.

This Thursday through Saturday (March 21-23) in Kansas City, MO we’ll get to watch 330 of the best collegiate wrestlers in America take the mat with national championship dreams in mind. By the end of three days of action just 10 individuals (and one team) will leave having made those dreams a reality.

(You can find the entire television/streaming schedule for the tournament HERE.)

Nine of those aspiring individuals – comprising one team – will be Iowa Hawkeyes.

The second-ranked Hawkeyes enter NCAAs fresh off a fourth-place finish at the Big Ten Championships – a sentence that should give you a good idea of just how much/little conference tournament results often translate to the national tournament less than two weeks later.

𝗡𝗖𝗔𝗔 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗶𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲

📒 at 2024 NCAA Championships ⤵️

— Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) March 18, 2024

Throw all the ‘biggest fish’ into an even ‘bigger pond’ and the difference in putting your team in position for a trophy becomes far more about advancing a few wrestlers deep into the championship side of the bracket than it does tallying up a few points here and there across all 10 weights.

In just a bit I’ll detail the potential paths for various Hawkeyes to do exactly that – and their implication on the race for a team trophy – but first let’s acknowledge the elephant/Nittany Lion in the room:

Barring the Penn State team’s flight to Kansas City getting sucked into an alternate dimension (which sure would be a wild story), Iowa, much like everyone else this weekend, figures to be fighting for second place.

Objectively speaking, the 2023-24 Nittany Lions are simply good enough to warrant that distinction as heavy favorites. However, this is also a season in which – unlike years past – the other power players in the sport simply haven’t had lineups come together that would push them into realistic title contention.

After PSU, there might legitimately be 11-12 teams that could challenge for a team trophy (top-four finish) – with many of those schools having the capacity to reach as high as the runner-up spot on the podium.

Whether Hawkeye fans like it or not, that’s the fight Iowa finds itself in this year. And given the unprecedented circumstances under which this particular team has had to operate for the past 9-10 months, I’d still view that as quite an accomplishment.

Of note, only once in Tom Brands’ 17 seasons at the helm has his team finished lower than fifth at the national tournament (an eighth-place finish back in 2007, his first season at Iowa).

If the Hawkeyes want to ensure another trophy-winning finish at NCAAs it’s going to take major efforts across multiple weights, beginning with one at which there’s a pretty decent track record of success for gentlemen donning the iconic Black & Gold singlet.

125 pounds – Does a tradition of excellence continue?

The lightest of the 10 weights contested in men’s college wrestling has been particularly good to Iowa in recent memory.

Not only have the Matt McDonough’s, Cory Clark’s, Thomas Gilman’s and Spencer Lee’s of the world kept Iowa competitive at 125, but more often than not they’ve been winning and/or wrestling for national titles in the process.

Next in line for the Hawkeyes is #3 seed Drake Ayala.

The redshirt sophomore enters his second NCAA tournament after battling through a shoulder injury two years ago while filling in for the injured Lee. Even with the bad shoulder, a 1-2 finish in 2022 was hardly Ayala’s expectation. It certainly won’t be this go-around either, as he has as much a claim as anyone in a tumultuous weight class to title-favorite status.

Ayala (23-4) gets a Round of 32 rematch with #30 Elijah Griffin (Cal Baptist), whom he majored 18-8 in the season opener. Win that, and he could see the dangerous, albeit incredibly inconsistent #14 Nico Provo (Stanford) in the Round of 16.

A 2-0 start to his tournament could set up yet another rematch, this time in the quarterfinals with #6 Troy Spratley (Oklahoma State). Ayala beat the Cowboy 125-pounder a few weeks ago 8-1 in sudden victory after locking up a cradle on the edge and getting a full set of four near fall points.

That match (other than the outcome) was a microcosm of three of Ayala’s losses this season – a slowed down, tactical affair in which the Hawkeye doesn’t push the pace or get to his offense until the latter stages when one mistake can prove costly. I firmly believe that so long as Ayala comes out as the aggressor in any given match, he’s arguably the favorite over any other competitor in the field.

And it’s because of that he’s my pick to not only make the semifinals – a possible matchup with one of #2 Luke Stanich (Lehigh), #7 Jakob Camacho (NC State) or #10 Eric Barnett (Wisconsin) – but to win the whole damn thing.

(Also lurking is Michigan’s #18 Michael DeAugustino, whom Ayala wouldn’t see until the semis, but has a 2-0 record against the Hawkeye this season).

I think Ayala navigates his half of the bracket and meets a surprise finalist from the topside (as much as 125 has any true ‘surprises’ this season) – Arizona State’s #8 Richie Figueroa.

Figueroa was a highly touted prep who has been up and down in his first two years on the collegiate scene, but I think he surprises the likes of Penn State’s #1 Braeden Davis and Purdue’s #4 Matt Ramos.

It would be the first folkstyle meeting between Ayala and Figueroa since Ayala pulled the upset three-and-a-half years ago at FloWrestling’s Who’s Number One event.

A finals appearance, much less the win, would also extend Iowa’s historic streak of 33-consecutive seasons with at least one wrestler competing on Saturday night, and 47/48 tournaments dating back to 1975.

Finals Prediction: #3 Drake Ayala (Iowa) over #8 Richie Figueroa (Arizona State)

133 pounds – Can Teske keep his recent form going in his last national tournament?

There’s no question that Brody Teske has been wrestling the best he has all season over the past 3-4 weeks.

Within that timeframe he not only regained his hold on the 133-pound spot in the Iowa lineup, but then found himself just inches away from a Big Ten final despite starting the tournament with a far from advantageous #14 seed.

It won’t be much easier at NCAAs, as the 15^th-seeded Teske will likely face undefeated #2 Ryan Crookham (Lehigh) in the Round of 16 – assuming Teske (13-5) takes care of business in his opener against #18 Derrick Cardinal of South Dakota State.

Crookham is my pick to win the title, so obviously I don’t have Teske advancing any further on the topside. From there, it’ll be a combination of the luck of the draw and whomever gets hot that’ll determine whether the Fort Dodge native, or someone else, navigates their way to coveted All-American status (top eight).

Teske has yet to achieve that feat in an otherwise laudable collegiate career, and unfortunately, I’ve got him falling one win short in his senior season. I hope like heck to be wrong, but 133 pounds has a lot of dangerous competitors and a loss to any of them would be fatal to those All-American hopes if Teske drops to the consolations as early as I’ve predicted.

Again, here’s hoping I look like a complete fool in a few days.

(It would hardly be the first time such a thing has happened.)

Finals Prediction: #2 Ryan Crookham (Lehigh) over #1 Daton Fix (Oklahoma State)

Hawkeye Finish: #15 Brody Teske, Round of 12

141 pounds – Will the ‘Real’ Woods please stand up?

To paint Real Woods’ senior season as a Hawkeye as some sort of major disappointment would be a fool’s errand.

An 18-3 record and the #3 seed at the national tournament is hardly a calamitous performance, especially when we don’t yet know how the story will end. But when you’re a Hawkeye and you enter the season as the top-ranked wrestler following a 2023 runner-up finish people aren’t exactly forgiving of anything less than perfection.

Woods’ three losses this season are to the numbers one, two and eight seeds – the latter of which came in perhaps the greatest outlier performance of his entire career.

He also has seven wins this season over athletes seeded tenth or better in this year’s bracket.

One of those, a win for third place at Big Tens, came when Woods avenged his earlier puzzling defeat to Michigan freshman Sergio Lemley.

I couldn’t say whether or not the Hawkeye is back at the level at which we saw him a year ago this time. That said, all he really needs to be is at a level that is good enough to get his hand raised five separate times over three days this week.

Do I think that’s a possibility? Absolutely.

Starting off against two-time All-American Clay Carlson (South Dakota State) won’t exactly be a picnic. Carlson, the #30 seed, beat a struggling Woods three years ago at NCAAs, but both athletes are in far different places in their careers now.

A victory there sets up a very winnable Round of 16 bout with either #14 Jesse Vasquez (Arizona State) or #19 Malyke Hines (Lehigh), followed by a quarterfinal with one of a quartet of foes – all of whom Woods has already both seen and defeated by comfortable decision earlier this year.

So yeah, I like his odds to reach the semifinals.

At that point Woods’ most likely opponent would be #2 Beau Bartlett (Penn State) – though Barlett’s own path is fraught with a couple of potential ‘landmines’ as well.

Woods controlled their dual meeting in 2023 in State College while Bartlett returned the favor this year in Iowa City. How does a rubber match go this time around?

(I flipped a coin, and it came up Woods.)

Win in the semis and it may very well set up a third and final rematch for the Iowa senior against an opponent whom he’s been defeated by this season. Were that to happen, it’d be #1 seed Jesse Mendez (Ohio State) standing in his way for a 141-pound national title.

The smart pick here is probably Mendez, who defeated both Woods and Barlett barely a week ago to win Big Tens. That said, I’m sure many folks (both to my face and behind my back) have accused me of being somewhat less-than-smart in a few of my past decisions.

So, what’s one more?

Woods unquestionably has the talent to win it all, but will his performance match that talent when it matters most? Given his cerebral nature, I’m betting on his ability to make the necessary adjustments from their previous meeting that would result in the first national title of Woods’ wildly impressive career.

Finals Prediction: #3 Real Woods (Iowa) over #1 Jesse Mendez (Ohio State)

149 pounds – Is Rathjen ready for his NCAA debut?

Similar to his teammate Teske, a low-to-mid seed in the teens for #13 Caleb Rathjen sets up a less-than-ideal tournament path for the redshirt sophomore.

Unlike Teske, however, 2024 marks the debut postseason appearance for Rathjen (16-5).

He’ll need to be ready from the jump as #20 Jordan Williams (Oklahoma State) awaits in his tournament opener. The two did not meet at the Iowa/OSU dual in late-February as Rathjen sat out following a knee tweak from a week earlier versus Wisconsin, but Williams is a game opponent if healthy.

That if healthy qualifier is important, because Williams appeared to have injured an arm/shoulder in his Big 12 final. If he enters the national tournament at less than 100 percent – perhaps significantly so – it’ll (unfortunately) make Rathjen’s life that much easier in his NCAA debut.

Regardless, a win in the opener merely gets him to the Round of 16, where a ‘Battle of Calebs’ likely awaits with the excellent #4 Caleb Henson of Virginia Tech.

Lose there as I’m predicting, and Rathjen would need to rack up three-consecutive victories in the consolations to ensure a spot on the podium.

Once again, similar to Teske, I think he falls just short – dropping a match that could very well come against Penn State freshman #7 Tyler Kasak, who defeated Rathjen at Big Tens in decisive 8-1 fashion after the Hawkeye had prevailed in sudden victory back at the dual.

It gives me no pleasure predicting such heartbreak. Sometimes that’s just the way it goes.

Finals Prediction: #6 Austin Gomez (Michigan) over #4 Caleb Henson (Virginia Tech)

Hawkeye Finish: #13 Caleb Rathjen, Round of 12

157 pounds – What does a ‘Franek’ finish look like?

There it is – the awful play on words (frantic/frenetic finish) that I was powerless to stop myself from shoehorning into this article.

(Look, it’s far more important that I acknowledge my flaws than that any of you actually accept them.)

Moving forward, if Iowa is going to place a wrestler in the NCAA finals at a weight other than 125 or 141 the most logical pick remaining to my eye is Jared Franek.

A fourth-place finisher a season ago at North Dakota State, Franek’s only losses on the mat this season have been to #1 seed Levi Haines (Penn State) twice, plus a pair of last-second decisions to #9 Will Lewan (Michigan) and #13 Michael Blockhus (Minnesota). All three of them are on the opposite side of the bracket from the Harwood, North Dakota native.

Looking at his draw, it’s not unrealistic to think Franek (23-5) could make another deep run in 2024.

He’ll open against a familiar foe, Purdue’s #23 Joey Blaze, whom he’s already beaten twice this season by decision.

Get past Blaze, and any oddsmaker would instill the Hawkeye as a favorite in the Round of 16 over either #7 Peyten Kellar (Ohio) or #26 Johnny Lovett (Central Michigan).

A 2-0 start would likely set up a quarterfinal against #2 Jacori Teemer (Arizona State) – a winnable match for Franek despite his losing a trio of close decisions (all by two points or fewer) to the Sun Devil between 2019 and 2022.

It will not shock me to see Iowa’s 157-pounder in the championship bracket either Friday (semifinals) or Saturday night (finals), but I think his propensity to wrestle low-scoring matches – plus the competition in his bracket – could cost him before that point.

To me, Franek still feels like a great bet to outperform his curiously low seed, and I believe he’ll do just that, finishing the last national tournament of his career with both a win and a spot on the podium.

Finals Prediction: #1 Levi Haines (Penn State) over #3 Meyer Shapiro (Cornell)

Hawkeye Finish: #10 Jared Franek, 5^th place

165 pounds – Walking a tightrope through a hurricane…at least until the semifinals.

In what I believe is unquestionably the most loaded bracket at this year’s national tournament, I’m of the opinion that Iowa’s Michael Caliendo was given the ‘least’ treacherous path of any 165-pounder outside of the trio of superstars who headline the weight class…until it’s not, of course.

As the #6 seed, Caliendo (22-4) won’t see any of #1 Keegan O’Toole (Missouri), #2 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State) or #4 David Carr (Iowa State) before a potential semifinal. He won’t see #5 Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin) on his side of the bracket either.

And it just so happens that Mesenbrink/Carr/Hamiti are responsible for all four of Caliendo’s losses this season.

Instead, the greatest challenge on the path to the semis for the redshirt sophomore would likely be #3 Julian Ramirez (Cornell).

Ramirez does have an upset win over Carr from late last year at CKLV, but of the top-five seeds in this field he’s widely viewed as the ‘lesser’ of the competitive ‘evils’ amongst that quintet.

I don’t envision Caliendo having too much trouble in either of his first two bouts, and I think he’s capable of pulling the upset over Ramirez on Friday morning to advance into the semifinals.

Unfortunately, that’s where the ‘smooth’ sailing figures to end, with #2 Mesenbrink the prohibitive favorite to advance opposite him.

Should Caliendo lose that match as expected, he’d have already guaranteed himself a top-six (All-American) finish – at least one spot better than his seventh-place result in 2023.

With at least three of O’Toole/Ramirez/Carr/Hamiti lurking somewhere in the wrestlebacks at that point, I can’t see the redshirt sophomore winning out. So, I’ll split the difference and say he goes 1-1 on Saturday morning in the medal round, finishing fifth in his first season as a Hawkeye.

Finals Prediction: #1 Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) over #2 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State)

Hawkeye Finish:  #6 Michael Caliendo, 5^th place

174 pounds – Staying upright amidst a crumbling bracket.

Another weight that could set up pretty well for Iowa all things considered is 174 pounds, where #12 seed Patrick Kennedy will embark on his second NCAA journey – though his first at 174.

Following what projects to be a fairly routine Round of 32 match, PK could see #5 Philip Conigliaro (Harvard) for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Now look, I don’t claim to know a darn thing about Conigliaro (24-3 this season), but the great Andy Hamilton informs me (OK, really all of us) that Conigliaro just lost twice to NCAA #26 seed Benny Baker (Cornell) at the recent EIWA Championships.

Maybe it’s just a bad matchup. Maybe Conigliaro ate some bad fish the night before the tournament. Again, I have not the slightest clue.

That said, Baker (14-12) is only two wins above .500 because of his two victories over Conigliaro.

I don’t want to come off as a Big Ten snob, but that tidbit sure makes me want to favor Kennedy in a potential bout with the ‘Hahvahd’ 174-pounder – or at least look upon it as far more favorable to the lower seed than is typical for a 12/5 matchup.

Obviously, a win would be huge in terms of advancing on the topside of the bracket, but doing so could also set up a potential quarter with #4 seed Shane Griffith (Michigan).

 That’s important for two reasons:

1. Kennedy significantly narrowed the gap between their regular season meeting (a major decision win by Griffith) and their Big Ten semifinal (won 4-3 by the Wolverine).
2. Griffith appeared injured at the end of that semifinal match, ultimately medically forfeiting the Big Ten final the following day. If he’s still compromised physically going into NCAAs there’s a chance he may not even make it to the quarters, or if he does, could be competing at even less ideal health than he was at the time of their previous razor-thin meeting.

Speaking of injuries, three-time national champion Carter Starocci (Penn State) throws this entire bracket into even further chaos by coming in as the #9 seed. The clear-cut favorite if healthy, all of the rhetoric coming from both Starocci and the Penn State room is that he’ll be good to go.

Of course, wrestling fans have heard this song and dance routine before (see one Nick Suriano), so I’m not putting much stock in anything until we see Starocci take the mat.

Back to Kennedy, anything short of a berth in the finals wouldn’t necessarily blow my mind, though I still wonder about his ability to finish shots against some of the longer, full-sized 174-pounders.

In the end, I think he’ll find his way onto the podium in some form or fashion. But again, this bracket could unfold in any of a thousand different ways depending on health, matchups, and oh yeah, you’re typical NCAA Championships craziness.

Finals Prediction: #1 Mekhi Lewis (Virginia Tech) over #2 Cade Devos (South Dakota State)

Hawkeye Finish: #12 Patrick Kennedy, 7^th place

184 pounds – ‘Iowa-adjacent’

With no Hawkeye in the bracket at 184 I just wanted to shout out one of the best wrestlers in the country who both happens to be seeking his first national title and also competes for an in-state school less than 90 miles from Iowa City.

Northern Iowa’s Parker Keckeisen (26-0) is just the latest in a long line of excellent 184-pounders for the Panthers, and I fully expect him to complete an undefeated season with a win on Saturday night.

Finals Prediction: #1 Parker Keckeisen (UNI) over #3 Dustin Plott (Oklahoma State)

197 pounds – The ‘Ice Man’ Cometh for All-American honors.

You’ve probably heard it ad nauseum by now, but Zach Glazier almost has to be the best story on this year’s Iowa Hawkeyes.

The fifth-year senior waited and waited and waited behind five-time All-American Jacob Warner, and when his moment finally arrived – whether some Iowa fans and their wandering eyes liked it or not – he seized it with both hands and a whole bunch of wins to boot.

Glazier (24-2) enters NCAAs as the #7 seed having only lost to prospective four-timer #1 Aaron Brooks (Penn State) this season.

After starting his tournament against #26 Andy Smith (Virginia Tech), a Round of 16 bout with #10 Silas Allred (Nebraska) would run back a dual matchup won in impressive 11-2 major decision fashion by the Hawkeye over the 2023 Big Ten champ.

Win that, and up next figures to be the #2 seed Trent Hidlay (North Carolina State) – in my estimation the only athlete in the bracket who can challenge Brooks for the title. I’m loathe to put any limitations on Glazier after what we’ve seen from him this season, but I think Hidlay probably prevails in this one.

That would leave the ‘Ice Man’ one win shy of All-American status, which I think he gets (plus one more) on the way to capping off one of the more improbable seasons for a Hawkeye in recent memory.

Finals Prediction: #1 Aaron Brooks (Penn State) over #2 Trent Hidlay (NC State)

Hawkeye Finish: #7 Zach Glazier, 6^th place

285 pounds – Much more than a ‘Hill’ of beans.

Our ninth and final weight with an Iowa qualifier, Bradley Hill represents another somewhat unexpected success story for the 2023-24 Hawkeyes.

Not Tony Cassioppi, not Ben Kueter, but Bradley Hill is your Iowa heavyweight at this year’s national tournament – and rather than scraping by just to qualify, Hill (20-7) did so emphatically with a fifth-place finish at Big Tens to secure his automatic bid.

The national tournament isn’t going to be any easier for the 25^th-seeded redshirt freshman, who’ll see two-time ACC champion #8 Owen Trephan (NC State) to open proceedings early Thursday afternoon.

A win would figure to earn him a date with Ohio State’s #9 Nick Feldman – a winner by injury default after building a sizable lead in their Big Ten quarterfinal matchup.

However, if seeds should hold and the Bettendorf native falls to the wrestlebacks he’d probably face #24 Keaton Kluever (Hofstra) needing a win to keep his tournament run alive. Do so, and his reward would likely be the loser of #7 Taye Ghadiali (Campbell) vs. #10 Lucas Davison (Michigan).

This almost certainly won’t be Hill’s mindset, but an appearance plus a win at the national tournament would (I think) represent a real accomplishment for a young man who is both A) still growing into the weight class after wrestling at 195 pounds as a high school senior, and B) doing all of this despite having not been Iowa’s intended starter this season if not for a myriad of unusual circumstances beyond his control.

Then again, don’t let my opinion stop you from winning as many matches as you damn well please this week.

Finals Prediction: #1 Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State) over #3 Wyatt Hendrickson (Air Force)

Hawkeye Finish: #25 Bradley Hill, consolations (1-2)

Short time

So, there you have it.

I’ve emptied the tank with my NCAA thoughts and prognostications.

Was it enough to get me on the ‘podium’ of NCAA previews? Who’s to say?

Regardless, I’m walking away from my desk with my head held high knowing that I gave it all I had.

Let’s have one heck of a long weekend full of wrestling. Hopefully you guys are as excited to watch it as I am to cover it.

The plan is to have a recap go up each night (Thursday/Friday/Saturday) detailing the day’s action for as many Hawkeyes as are still competing in their respective brackets. I’ll also be tweeting out match-by-match updates if you’d like to follow along there.

As this marks the last event of the college season, I just want to thank everyone who has followed along from the beginning and/or hopped on board along the way. It’s been my pleasure to both write for and interact with you guys over the past few months, and I aim to make the next few days our best ones yet.

Enjoy the tournament, and I’ll talk to you again real soon.