Iowa Wrestling Preview
It’s that time.
Time for the collective eyes of the wrestling world to be trained squarely on the American heartland.
Time for Carver-Hawkeye Arena to transform into as hair-raising, spine-tingling of a competitive environment as you could ever hope to be a part of.
Time for one the greatest rivalries in collegiate sports.
It’s time for Iowa vs. Penn State.
On Friday night at 8:00 p.m. (CST) Iowa City will once again be the epicenter of college wrestling as its two preeminent brands meet for the 43rd time in series history. The Big Ten Network will carry the dual in prime time, as has now become customary for clashes between the two programs who’ve combined to win 14 of the last 15 NCAA team titles.
This go around it’ll be yet another matchup between a pair of the top ranked teams in the country, with the #3 Hawkeyes (10-1, 5-1 Big Ten) hosting the #1 Nittany Lions (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) in front of a crowd that will assuredly test the limits of Carver’s listed 14,847-person capacity.
It’ll also be an enormously difficult task for an Iowa bunch coming off its worst performance of the season – a 24-11 defeat on the road at Michigan just a week ago.
There’s no sugarcoating this, the Hawkeyes are a prohibitive underdog entering Friday’s clash and would’ve been so even if the loss to the Wolverines had never happened.
First, Penn State really is that good. And second, an Iowa squad that was already undergoing a bit of a transition year in 2023-24 has only been further depleted by NCAA gambling-related suspensions to the point that it now lacks both the top-end firepower and the depth across all ten weights that have made it such a formidable dual opponent over the past half-decade.
For example, the Hawkeyes have five wrestlers currently ranked in the top seven of their respective weight classes.
Penn State currently has five wrestlers ranked number one, plus another trio at seventh or higher, and the ‘low man’ on its totem pole – true freshman Tyler Kasak – rounding out the lineup as #10 at 149 pounds.
In short, one could come up with a plethora of different totally conceivable scenarios in which the Nittany Lions win this dual.
Are we going to cover any of those scenarios here? No, we are not.
Based strictly on rankings Penn State is favored at 9/10 weights, and heavily so in a few places. What more analysis do you need than that?
Instead, we’re going to ask and answer two questions that I’m sure many of the Hawkeye faithful are pondering to themselves entering Friday night:
- Can Iowa win?
- And if so, how would they do it?
Can it be done?
Look, conventional wisdom tells us that an Iowa victory is exceedingly unlikely on Friday night given the sheer number, not to mention the weight of certain factors that appear to be against it.
But does that mean it’s impossible? Does that mean it truly can’t be done?
I’m old enough to remember a time when a tech-savvy man named Riley Poole attempted to convince his ‘treasure protecting’ partner, one Benjamin Franklin Gates, that the Declaration of Independence couldn’t possibly be stolen from right out under the lock and key of the US government.
Turns out, Mr. Poole was wrong, an elaborate (successful) heist would ensue, all of that followed by a thrilling journey of history and adventure that would ultimately result in the discovery of the greatest treasure ever found – with assists from both Gates’ father, Patrick, as well as Dr. Abigail Chase, of course.
(If you’re still following along with this reference, just imagine the standing ovation that I’m directing your way.)
Anway, point being yes, Iowa can win this dual.
The task is tall, to be sure. But if you’re to pose the simple question as to whether or not it can be done – minus the obvious caveat of some sporting ‘act of God’ playing a major, unforeseen role – yes, it can be done.
As always, however, the most interesting part would be the how.
Iowa’s path to victory = a chase to six
Simply put, it’s difficult to envision any permutation of a Hawkeye victory in this dual that doesn’t include the home team winning at least six of the 10 contested matches.
Now by the very nature of that statement you’re asking for a whole lot. Six wins means, by default, knocking off at least one of Penn State’s top-ranked guys. And in all likelihood, you may actually have to beat two of them.
(Remember, you asked if this was possible, not probable.)
I set that number at six because although splitting the 10 matches equally could in theory leave things tied at dual’s end, Penn State is overwhelmingly more likely to accumulate bonus points somewhere – if not multiple places – along the way.
Iowa’s best chance to pull off the major upset is to get to six wins and hope it can hang on against the Nittany Lion heavy hitters from there.
Funnily enough, based on the probable lineups for the dual (which should be taken with a grain of salt) those six wins probably need to come at the first six weights of the night – assuming things start off at 125 pounds.
Current rankings be damned, I view #7 Drake Ayala (17-3) as a favorite over #2 Braeden Davis (14-0). We’ve talked before about how unpredictable 125 is nationally this season, and though Davis sports the only unblemished record at the weight class I’m not sure anyone would tell you the true freshman has distanced himself from the other 10-12 guys at the top of the rankings.
If Ayala wrestles his best, I believe he will take this one. However, we’ve seen him get drawn into a pair of cagey, slower-paced matches in recent weeks and it cost him both times. Ayala badly needs this one, the crowd badly needs this one, and the Hawkeyes’ chances of pulling off an improbable dual win badly need this one.
We’ll see if the redshirt sophomore can make it happen.
A similar sentiment goes for Real Woods in his one-versus-two matchup with new #1 Beau Bartlett.
Woods won their only previous meeting (4-1 last year in Happy Valley) and if you’d asked someone who was the better wrestler between the two of them as recently as a week ago the majority would’ve probably answered Woods.
The question now is, does one as-of-yet-unexplained bizarrely down performance by the Hawkeye in Ann Arbor completely change that sentiment? Maybe for some, but as of right now I still believe it’s well within reason to call the second-ranked senior a home favorite in this one.
Not that it can really afford a slip-up anywhere in this dual, but once again Iowa badly needs to get this win at 141.
Two other weights at which Iowa fans can at least feel cautiously optimistic are 157 and 165.
North Dakota State transfers #5 Jared Franek (157) and #6 Michael Caliendo (165) are strangers to neither high-level competition, nor big-time environments, placing fourth and seventh respectively at NCAA’s last year.
So, while their opponents, #1 Levi Haines (157) and #7 Mitchell Mesenbrink (165), enter this dual with a combined 26-0 record, it’s far from inconceivable that either (or both) of the Hawkeyes could emerge victorious – especially with the full might of Carver-Hawkeye Arena behind them.
Haines, the returning national runner-up, is a winner in every sense of the word. However, the true sophomore also does tend to wrestle close matches against high-level competition – including a narrow 3-2 win over Cobe Siebrecht at last year’s dual – which could leave him ripe for an upset if Franek is able to capitalize.
Mesenbrink, on the other hand, is a newcomer in State College having transferred to Penn State after a redshirt season at Cal Poly.
Somewhat of a late bloomer – as evidenced by his commitment to Cal Poly – the Wisconsin-native has blossomed into a back-to-back Under-20 world medalist (silver in 2022, gold in 2023).
He doesn’t yet have any results against the top of the 165-pound NCAA division, but there’s no reason to think he won’t fit right in when given the chance.
Iowa fans must hope that Caliendo will provide a less-than-warm welcome in this one, particularly if the Hawkeyes have done enough good work prior to this match that the team score is still in the balance when these 165-pounders toe the line.
The last two ‘probable starters’ upon whose performances Iowa’s chances in this dual will likely hinge are #20 Cullan Schriever and #12 Caleb Rathjen.
Shriever (8-2) would seem to have the taller task based on ranking differential versus #6 Aaron Nagao, but Nagao (a Minnesota transfer) is also a counterattack-heavy wrestler who doesn’t always generate the most offense from his feet. There’s a chance that this becomes a one-takedown match, and whenever that is the case, it leaves the favored athlete vulnerable (something Iowa fans have seen come back to bite several Hawkeyes this season).
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Nagao (8-3) does have a major advantage in this one as it pertains to his mat game. The one-time Gopher is a hammer from the top position and will often choose to start there in either the second or third period as the match allows. I think it’d be wise for Schriever to avoid going under at all costs and try to sneak this one out with a single clean takedown instead.
Meanwhile, Rathjen (12-3) is probably less of an underdog versus #10 Kasak (11-1), a true freshman who stepped into the PSU lineup following a season-ending injury to returning All-American Shayne Van Ness.
Even so, the young Nittany Lion has been impressive thus far, and would represent the biggest win of Rathjen’s college career to date.
I should also note that if Tom Brands were to elect to go with either Brody Teske at 133 or Victor Voinovich III at 149, I’m not sure it would meaningfully impact my view of Iowa’s chances in either match. They too would be underdogs, but again, conceivably within striking distance of an upset if they were to perform at/near their very best (and perhaps get some help from the home crowd as well).
Penn State’s three other number-one ranked guys don’t strike me as having much in the way of trouble in this one. Carter Starocci (174), Aaron Brooks (197) and Greg Kerkvliet (285) – all of them seniors – are simply too talented and too experienced for Iowa to hope for much other than to mitigate the damage.
I realize that may sound a bit extreme given that Brands could run out #7 Patrick Kennedy, an undefeated #11 Zach Glazier, and potentially former Under-20 World Champ Ben Kueter to face the PSU trio (though I’m doubtful the latter of those three will go for Iowa on Friday).
My response? Sorry. I just think those guys in Navy & White are that good.
That takes us through nine weights. The tenth? 184 pounds.
In my opinion, based on the probable lineups 184 joins the 174/197/285 triumvirate as a no-go venture for the Hawkeyes.
I’ll continue to laud Aiden Riggins (11-10) for his selfless efforts with his team in a tough spot, but #6 Bernie Truax (another Cal Poly transfer) is a bridge (or two) too far in even the most optimistic of predictions.
If that’s the matchup we get it would mean that at least in this writer’s eyes Iowa needs to pitch a perfect game from 125-165 (six wins) in order to win the dual, which still might not be enough if bonus points start to fly around for the Nittany Lions.
(Again, Penn State is pretty darn good, you guys.)
The only legitimate chance Iowa has at 184, which would also be its only chance at having the slightest margin for error in the dual, would be if freshman Gabe Arnold were to take the mat.
Arnold, whom we’ve yet to see since his 174-pound title run at the Soldier Salute back in late-December, already has experience successfully bumping up in a big spot for the Hawkeyes. His 3-2 win at Hilton Coliseum over previous #6 Will Feldkamp was a critical component to Iowa prevailing in its dual against the Cyclones.
Brands was cagey at this week’s press conference as to when/if we may see Arnold again this season, but if it were to come to fruition on Friday, I would absolutely give the Iowa City High graduate a chance to get the better of Truax.
The bottom line is this, no one outside of true Hawkeye diehards and the team within the walls of the Dan Gable Wrestling Complex is expecting Iowa to win this dual.
You can go ahead and count this skeptical writer among them.
But there is a chance.
Improbable? Absolutely. Impossible? No.
A path to victory does exist (I just spent an afternoon at my computer mapping it out for you), but the Hawkeyes will need to walk it with total steadfastness in the face of the monumental task at hand. And shoot, that’s what we love about sports.
Something improbable – sometimes even the ‘impossible’ – can always happen.
And if ever you were to pick an environment to help inspire a team to rise to the occasion you won’t find one better than Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
The echoes of Ramos/Conaway and Kemerer/Hall still reverberated through Carver’s foundation from Iowa/Penn State clashes of the past.
Who’s to say that Friday night won’t be the stage for the latest indelible memory to be made in this awesome rivalry? I certainly wouldn’t miss the chance to tune in and find out.
Short time shot(s)
With the Iowa women off for the weekend I did want to provide one important related update – something that will only go to further bolster the bright future of women’s wrestling at the collegiate level.
As of this Wednesday, the NCAA announced that its Committee on Women’s Athletics had voted to recommend the official sponsorship of a national collegiate women’s wrestling championship.
Based on the projected timeline, the proposal would be voted on in January of 2025 and a first-ever NCAA women’s wrestling championship would be held for the following 2025-26 season.
Currently, NCAA programs (Divisions I, II and III) compete at the National Collegiate Women’s Wrestling Championships (NCWWC’s) as the equivalent to what Iowa fans are used to on the men’s side at NCAA’s.
This year’s edition is set to take place just down the road in Cedar Rapids (Mar. 8-9).
Should the committee’s recommendation come to pass as expected, women’s wrestling would become the 91st official NCAA championship sport – only further validating the incredible work so many have done to help push the sport to where it is today.
This was extremely big news for not only women’s wrestling, but for the sport of wrestling as a whole in the United States.
These women deserve it and based on everything they’ve done thus far – particularly in Iowa City – this will only be the beginning of even bigger and better things to come.
